Shakhtar Donetsk vs Legia Warsaw – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League
Result
1:2
23/10/2025 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - League phase - Round 2
  • Referee: Correia G. (Por)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
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colombiaColombiaDisney+
denmarkDenmarkDisney+
finlandFinlandViaplay
germanyGermanyRTL+
greeceGreeceANT 1+
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polandPolandPolsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
romaniaRomaniaDigi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
south-americaSouth-americaViX Latin America
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 14
swedenSwedenDisney+
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaParamount+
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vietnamVietnamON Plus

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.490.97
Ball Possession
70%30%
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
33
Passes
90% (568/631)72% (189/264)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
0.490.97
xG on target (xGOT)
0.671.69
Total shots
1111
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
36
Blocked Shots
52
Shots inside the Box
65
Shots outside the Box
56
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
33
Touches in opposition box
1912
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
89
Passes
90% (568/631)72% (189/264)
Long passes
57% (24/42)45% (21/47)
Passes in final third
76% (130/172)55% (39/71)
Crosses
27% (3/11)36% (5/14)
Expected assists (xA)
1.000.41
Throw-ins
1715
Fouls
98
Tackles
60% (9/15)70% (19/27)
Duels won
3748
Clearances
1924
Interceptions
1312
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
12
xGOT faced
1.690.67
Goals prevented
-0.31-0.33

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 16', 0 - 1, Augustyniak R. ⚽,
  • 33', Marlon Gomes 🟨,
  • 43', Rajovic M. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 59', Eguinaldo ↓, Newerton ↑,
  • 59', Shved M. ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
  • 59', Bondarenko A. ↓, Glushchenko A. ↑,
  • 59', Rajovic M. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
  • 59', Urbanski W. ↓, Kapustka B. ↑,
  • 61', 1 - 1, Luca Meirelles ⚽, Konoplya Y. (A),
  • 67', Krasniqi E. ↓, Stojanovic P. ↑,
  • 77', Marlon Gomes ↓, Nazaryna Y. ↑,
  • 82', Konoplya Y. 🟨,
  • 84', Konoplya Y. ↓, Tobias V. ↑,
  • 85', Elitim J. ↓, Urbanski K. ↑,
  • 85', Chodyna K. ↓, Zewlakow J. ↑,
  • 90+3', Nazaryna Y. 🟨,
  • 90+4', 1 - 2, Augustyniak R. ⚽,

Chances of winning


Shakhtar Donetsk
43.3%		Draw
29%		Legia Warsaw
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
56.4% 23.5% 20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4% 22.7% 19.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Shakhtar Donetsk's form might have worsened.
  • Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Legia Warsaw's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+15.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shakhtar Donetsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-8.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Legia Warsaw, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Shakhtar Donetsk - Legia Warsaw Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.58 ↑
    (1.67)    		 3.61 ↓
    (4)    		 3.7 ↓
    (4.69)    		 -6.5%
    (6.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk - Legia Warsaw?
  • Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Shakhtar will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). Legia will win (votes: 4 - 14.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Shakhtar: 57.6% – 90.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 4 - 50%). Legia (votes: 4 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH -1 - Shakhtar (3.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Shakhtar (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Legia (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
    • Shakhtar is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Legia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • In this match, Shakhtar is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Shakhtar: Alisson (Foot Injury) Khromey M. (Inactive) Kornienko V. (Inactive) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Topalov D. (Inactive) Traore L. (Muscle Injury) Udod D. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Legia: Arreiol H. (Muscle Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Shakhtar Donetsk
    18.10.2025 Polissya Zhytomyr - Shakhtar Donetsk 0:0
    05.10.2025 Shakhtar Donetsk - LNZ Cherkasy 1:4 ✺
    02.10.2025 Aberdeen - Shakhtar Donetsk 2:3 ✺
    28.09.2025 Rukh Lviv - Shakhtar Donetsk 0:4 ✺
    22.09.2025 Shakhtar Donetsk - Zorya Luhansk 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Legia Warsaw
    19.10.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw 3:1 ✺
    05.10.2025 Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw 3:1 ✺
    02.10.2025 Legia Warsaw - Samsunspor 0:1 ✺
    28.09.2025 Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin 1:0 ✺
    24.09.2025 Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok 0:0 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1KuPS (21)Lech Poznan (11)0 : 1, 0 : 2
    2Shakhtar Donetsk (6)Bye
    3Noah (19)AZ Alkmaar (14)0 : 4, 1 : 0
    4Sparta Prague (4)Bye
    5Zrinjski (23)Crystal Palace (10)0 : 2, 1 : 1
    6AEK Larnaca (8)Bye
    7Jagiellonia (17)Fiorentina (15)4 : 2, 0 : 3
    8Rakow (2)Bye
    9Shkendija (22)Samsunspor (12)0 : 4, 0 : 1
    10Rayo Vallecano (5)Bye
    11Drita (20)Celje (13)2 : 3, 2 : 3
    12AEK Athens (3)Bye
    13Sigma Olomouc (24)Lausanne (9)2 : 1, 1 : 1
    14Mainz (7)Bye
    15Omonia (18)Rijeka (16)1 : 3, 0 : 1
    16Strasbourg (1)Bye

    1/8-finals
    1Lech Poznan (11)Shakhtar Donetsk (6)
    2AZ Alkmaar (14)Sparta Prague (4)
    3Crystal Palace (10)AEK Larnaca (8)
    4Fiorentina (15)Rakow (2)
    5Samsunspor (12)Rayo Vallecano (5)
    6Celje (13)AEK Athens (3)
    7Sigma Olomouc (24)Mainz (7)
    8Rijeka (16)Strasbourg (1)

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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