Result
2:1
04/03/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- EFL Trophy - Play Offs - Semi-finals
- Referee: Reeves T. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2 |
 Australia | beIN Connect |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 5, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 Iceland | Viaplay |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Malaysia | Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 5, Voyo |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports UHD, Sky Sports+ |
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.16 | 0.18 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (357/456) | 55% (140/254) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.16 | 0.18 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 0.23 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 42 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (357/456) | 55% (140/254) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (22/68) | 28% (21/76) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (99/151) | 31% (33/105) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (8/33) | 13% (2/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.75 | 0.18 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 86% (12/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 51 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.23 | 1.65 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.77 | -0.35 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 16', Naismith K. 🟨,
- 17', 0 - 1, McAdam K. ⚽, Taylor T. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 54', 1 - 1, Wells N. ⚽, Clark J. (A),
- 55', Swyer K. ↓, Hoskins S. ↑,
- 55', Jacobs M. ↓, McGeehan C. ↑,
- 55', List E. ↓, Campbell D. ↑,
- 55', van den Berg D. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
- 55', Richards J. ↓, Palmer K. ↑,
- 60', Wells N. 🟨,
- 69', McCarthy C. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
- 69', Willis J. ↓, Forbes M. ↑,
- 79', Clark J. 🟨,
- 81', Kodua G. ↓, Cole D. ↑,
- 82', 2 - 1, Walsh L. ⚽, Naismith K. (A),
- 85', Odoffin H. ↓, Lonwijk N. ↑,
Chances of winning
Luton Town
65.2% | Draw
24.5% | Northampton Town
10.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luton Town's performance.Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Northampton Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-19%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luton Town that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+11.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Northampton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Luton Town - Northampton Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.56 ↑
(1.54) |
4.31 ↑
(3.85) |
10.8 ↑
(5.45) |
-3.4%
(9.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Luton Town - Northampton Town?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 4 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 3.
- In recent matches, Luton has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Northampton is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Luton is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Luton won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.6:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Northampton Town?
Luton Town has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Northampton Town won against Luton Town?
Northampton Town has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luton Town - Northampton Town were as follows:
25.10.2025
Northampton Town
-
Luton Town
0:1
Latest results of Luton Town
Latest results of Northampton Town
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Lincoln | Huddersfield | 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Salford | Rotherham | 2 : 7 |
| 3 | Doncaster | Chesterfield | 5 : 1 |
| 4 | Tranmere | Fleetwood | 0 : 3 |
| 5 | Bolton | Bradford City | 3 : 0 |
| 6 | Port Vale | Barnsley | 5 : 0 |
| 7 | Crewe | Stockport County | 1 : 2 |
| 8 | Harrogate | Blackpool | 4 : 2 |
| 9 | Luton | Exeter | 4 : 0 |
| 10 | Swindon | Peterborough | 1 : 0 |
| 11 | Bristol Rovers | Cambridge Utd | 3 : 2 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | Plymouth | 0 : 1 |
| 13 | Cardiff | AFC Wimbledon | 1 : 5 |
| 14 | Colchester | West Ham U21 | 0 : 1 |
| 15 | Northampton | Wycombe | 2 : 0 |
| 16 | Stevenage | Walsall | 1 : 2 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Huddersfield | Rotherham | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Doncaster | Fleetwood | 3 : 1 |
| 3 | Bolton | Port Vale | 0 : 1 |
| 4 | Stockport County | Harrogate | 2 : 1 |
| 5 | Luton | Swindon | 1 : 2 |
| 6 | Bristol Rovers | Plymouth | 3 : 4 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | West Ham U21 | 4 : 2 |
| 8 | Northampton | Walsall | 4 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Huddersfield | Doncaster | 1 : 2 |
| 2 | Port Vale | Stockport County | 0 : 4 |
| 3 | Luton | Plymouth | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | AFC Wimbledon | Northampton | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Doncaster | Stockport County | 0 : 1 |
| 2 | Luton | Northampton | 2 : 1 |
Final
