Result
1:0
14/12/2025 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 14
- Referee: Silva D. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Angola | Z Sports 1 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.69 | 0.21 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 69% | 31% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (530/605) | 70% (194/276) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.69 | 0.21 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.97 | 0.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 5 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (530/605) | 70% (194/276) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (28/53) | 45% (24/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (131/173) | 47% (28/60) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (8/42) | 9% (1/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.14 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (10/13) | 50% (5/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 36 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.15 | 0.97 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.15 | -0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 22', Sandro Lima 🟥,
- 34', Touaizi N. 🟨,
- 41', Naves 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Figueiredo ↓, Marezi ↑,
- 55', Puche ↓, Lee H. ↑,
- 59', 1 - 0, Lee H. ⚽, Tiago Esgaio (A),
- 69', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
- 69', Nandin D. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
- 69', Popovic B. ↓, Fontan J. ↑,
- 73', Lincoln 🟨,
- 77', Lincoln ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
- 77', Amorim ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 85', van Ee E. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 85', Djouahra N. ↓, Simao D. ↑,
- 85', Meupiyou B. ↓, James I. ↑,
- 89', Abdulai S. ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
- 90+5', Chissumba 🟨,
Chances of winning
Arouca
31.4% | Draw
30.3% | Alverca
38.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
Arouca - Alverca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.03 ↑
(2.97) |
3.12 ↓
(3.23) |
2.49 ↑
(2.43) |
5.2%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Arouca - Alverca?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Alverca will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alverca: 35.4% – 82.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 40%). Alverca (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Alverca (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Alverca (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 9).
- Arouca has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Alverca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Alverca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Arouca: Alex Pinto
(Red Card)
Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
Fukui T.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Alverca: Chiquinho
(Injury)
Diarra S.
(Muscle Injury)
Leo Chu
(Injury)
Mendes T.
(Muscle Injury)
Paulo A.
(Inactive)
- We predict that Alverca will win today's game, with odds of 2.65.
- In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Alverca?
Arouca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Arouca?
Alverca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Alverca were as follows:
Latest results of Alverca
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 28 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 56:13 | 43 | 73 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 27 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 72:17 | 55 | 68 |
| 3 | Benfica | 28 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 59:18 | 41 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 54:27 | 27 | 49 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 35:24 | 11 | 46 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 42:28 | 14 | 45 |
| 7 | Estoril | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 50:47 | 3 | 37 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 34:42 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 31:40 | -9 | 35 |
| 10 | Alverca | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 29:46 | -17 | 32 |
| 11 | Arouca | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 37:57 | -20 | 32 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 29:48 | -19 | 30 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 26:35 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 33:47 | -14 | 28 |
| 15 | Nacional | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 31:39 | -8 | 25 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 27:49 | -22 | 25 |
| 17 | Tondela | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19:44 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 28 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 18:61 | -43 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
