Result
1:3
12/09/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 6
- Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Usa | SportsEngine Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 1.25 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (393/475) | 81% (290/359) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 1.25 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 2.54 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (393/475) | 81% (290/359) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (47/82) | 37% (22/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (72/110) | 67% (67/100) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 50% (8/16) | 33% (2/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.42 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 74% (17/23) | 61% (11/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 67 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 6 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.54 | 0.96 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.46 | -0.04 |
| Goal kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 3)
- 18', Bojang Y. 🟨,
- 34', 0 - 1, Chissumba ⚽, Chiquinho (A),
- 37', 0 - 2, Camara D. ⚽, Spencer D. (A),
- 42', 0 - 3, Camara D. ⚽, Spencer D. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Jensen M. ↓, Song Min-Kyu ↑,
- 46', Daniel Junior ↓, Djalo M. ↑,
- 48', Camara D. 🟨,
- 54', Matheus Dias ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 65', Figueiredo ↓, Vidigal A. ↑,
- 66', Chiquinho ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
- 69', Gavriel S. ↓, Obando A. ↑,
- 72', Camara D. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
- 74', Spencer D. 🟨,
- 79', Pablo Ruan ↓, Nava F. ↑,
- 79', Gui D. ↓, Rayan Lucas ↑,
- 79', James I. ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
- 81', 1 - 3, Djalo M. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Nacional
33.4% | Draw
28.7% | Alverca
37.8% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-2.1%)
Nacional - Alverca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.83 ↑
(2.7) |
3.28 ↑
(3.25) |
2.52 ↓
(2.61) |
5.5%
(6.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Nacional - Alverca?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Nacional: Ulisses
(Broken calfbone)
- There will not play in Alverca: Abdulai S.
(Knee Injury)
Martinez J.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Nacional: Jose Gomes
(Inactive)
Leo Santos
(Injury)
Nourani M.
(Inactive)
Soares F.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Meupiyou B.
(Injury)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Alverca?
Nacional has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Nacional?
Alverca has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Alverca were as follows:
18.04.2026
Nacional
-
Alverca
1:0
07.12.2025
Alverca
-
Nacional
1:0
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Alverca
Liga Portugal Table
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20:4 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24:7 | 17 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20:9 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:10 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6:5 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14:15 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:15 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8:17 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:10 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3:17 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4:12 | -8 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
