Result
1:0
06/03/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 25
- Referee: Nobre A. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 9 |
 Hungary | Sport 2 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 4 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Russia | TV Start |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 2 |
 Turkey | Tivibu Spor 3 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.89 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (376/445) | 85% (327/386) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.89 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.05 | 0.70 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 29 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (376/445) | 85% (327/386) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (32/53) | 56% (28/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (85/125) | 65% (46/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (7/29) | 43% (3/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.03 | 0.94 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (12/19) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.70 | 1.05 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.70 | 0.05 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 51', Barbero I. 🟨,
- 61', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
- 66', Gil Dias ↓, Beney R. ↑,
- 66', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
- 67', Pena M. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
- 75', Trezza A. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 82', 1 - 0, Pinheiro R. ⚽,
- 83', Monteiro D. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 83', Kuipers B. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
- 84', Lee H. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 84', De Amorim M. 🟨,
- 89', Joujou A. ↓, Realpe L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Famalicão
56.5% | Draw
24.8% | Arouca
18.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (+0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+1%)
Famalicão - Arouca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.69 ↓
(1.71) |
3.83 ↓
(3.9) |
5.01 ↑
(4.6) |
5.2%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Famalicão - Arouca?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.75 - Famalicão (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1.5 - Arouca (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Famalicão will win
(16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Famalicão will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Famalicão (votes: 6 - 75%). Arouca (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- In this match, Famalicão is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O.
(Knee Injury)
Sorriso
(Yellow Cards)
Van de Looi T.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
Pedro Santos
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Famalicão: Rochinha
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Gozalbez P.
(Injury)
Sanchez J.
(Injury)
- In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Famalicão won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 0.9:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Famalicão won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 0.8:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Famalicão won against Arouca?
Famalicão has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Famalicão?
Arouca has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Famalicão - Arouca were as follows:
05.10.2025
Arouca
-
Famalicão
1:1
05.04.2025
Arouca
-
Famalicão
1:2
09.11.2024
Famalicão
-
Arouca
0:0
23.02.2024
Arouca
-
Famalicão
3:2
22.09.2023
Famalicão
-
Arouca
1:0
Latest results of Famalicão
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
