Result
1:2
21/12/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 16
- Referee: Aliyev A. (Aze)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Azerbaijan | CBC Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 6', 1 - 0, Owusu P. ⚽,
- 8', Ba Loua A. 🟨,
- 27', 1 - 1, Huseynov B. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Rashidov N. ↓, Aliyev N. ↑,
- 63', Aliyev N. 🟨,
- 64', Sierra J. 🟨,
- 67', Kashchuk O. ↓, Duran C. ↑,
- 67', Sheydayev R. ↓, Zoubir A. ↑,
- 67', Chriso ↓, Leandro Andrade ↑,
- 73', Bayramov T. ↓, Cafarquliyev E. ↑,
- 79', 1 - 2, Jankovic M. ⚽,
- 83', Massoumou D. J. ↓, Tagiyev E. ↑,
- 84', Shahniyarov S. ↓, Iskandarov F. ↑,
- 84', Addai E. ↓, Pedro Bicalho ↑,
- 86', Dani Bolt 🟨,
- 90+3', Eduardo Kunde ↓, Damadayev S. ↑,
- 90+3', Owusu P. ↓, Shakarkhanov Z. ↑,
- 90+4', Jankovic M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Gabala
9.9% | Draw
18.5% | Qarabağ Agdam
71.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gabala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)Qarabağ Agdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Qarabağ Agdam's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
9.24 ↑
(7.65) |
4.92 ↑
(4.08) |
1.27 ↓
(1.38) |
9.8%
(10.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Gabala will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Qarabağ will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Qarabağ (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- 1X2, 1st Half - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 0.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Gabala may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Qarabağ is the undisputed favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 9:50. (average 0.5:2.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gabala won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 4:22. (average 0.4:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Gabala won against Qarabağ Agdam?
Gabala has won 1 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Qarabağ Agdam won against Gabala?
Qarabağ Agdam has won 9 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam were as follows:
26.09.2025
Qarabağ Agdam
-
Gabala
2:0
04.12.2024
Gabala
-
Qarabağ Agdam
0:2
20.04.2024
Qarabağ Agdam
-
Gabala
2:2
28.02.2024
Gabala
-
Qarabağ Agdam
0:4
04.12.2023
Qarabağ Agdam
-
Gabala
3:0
Latest results of Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 27 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 66:21 | 45 | 66 |
| 2 | Qarabag | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 55:18 | 37 | 56 |
| 3 | Turan Tovuz | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 35:19 | 16 | 52 |
| 4 | Zira | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 36:30 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Neftci Baku | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 44:24 | 20 | 43 |
| 6 | Araz | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 37:49 | -12 | 39 |
| 7 | Shamakhi | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 25:28 | -3 | 32 |
| 8 | Sumqayit | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 35:40 | -5 | 32 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 27 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 20:37 | -17 | 26 |
| 10 | Kapaz | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 22:54 | -32 | 21 |
| 11 | Gabala | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 25:43 | -18 | 19 |
| 12 | Karvan | 27 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 20:57 | -37 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ I Liqa
