Accrington Stanley vs Carlisle United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Two Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United
Result
1:1
21/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • League Two - Round 44
  • Referee: Coy M. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Sports+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
Ball Possession
45%55%
Total shots
510
Shots on target
14
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
22
Passes
53% (154/292)63% (224/358)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
0.940.68
xG on target (xGOT)
0.991.03
Total shots
510
Shots on target
14
Shots off target
25
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
27
Shots outside the Box
33
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
10
Corner Kicks
22
Touches in opposition box
1217
Offsides
33
Free Kicks
98
Passes
53% (154/292)63% (224/358)
Long passes
24% (20/84)22% (22/98)
Passes in final third
39% (46/119)41% (43/104)
Crosses
15% (2/13)29% (5/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.560.49
Fouls
89
Tackles
58% (7/12)70% (7/10)
Duels won
7363
Clearances Total
5363
Interceptions
96
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
30
xGOT faced
1.030.99
Goals prevented
-0.07-0.01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 62', Woods J. , O'Brien Whitmarsh J. ,
  • 69', 1 - 0, Aljofree S. , Woods B. (A),
  • 70', Fusire S. , Vela J. ,
  • 70', Wearne S. , Embleton E. ,
  • 76', Whalley S. , Mooney K. ,
  • 77', Hugill J. , Bevan J. ,
  • 86', Walton T. , Caton C. ,
  • 87', Ellis J. , Barclay B. ,
  • 90+2', 1 - 1, Whelan C. , Kelly G. (A),
  • 90+3', Love D. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Hayden A. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Accrington Stanley
41.1%
Draw
27.7%
Carlisle United
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
38.8% 28.5% 32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6% 28.3% 32.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Accrington Stanley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)
  • Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Accrington Stanley than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (+1.8%)
  • Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.3
    (2.41)
    3.4
    (3.29)
    3.01
    (2.87)
    6.2%
    (6.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United?
  • Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Accrington will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Carlisle will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Accrington: 9.6%70.4%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Carlisle (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 21 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Accrington won 2.
    • One and the other team get a very uncertain game.
    • The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
    • There will not play in Accrington: Rich-Baghuelou J. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Carlisle: Davies A. (Injury) Dennis M. (Red Card) Dummett P. (Hamstring Injury) Jones J. (Inactive) McGeouch D. (Inactive) Williams J. (Injury) Wyke Ch. (Broken ankle)
    • There are questionable in Accrington: Conneely S. (Injury)
    • Last 11 head-to-head matches Accrington won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13:15 (average 1.2:1.4).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Accrington won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:6 (average 1.7:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United were as follows:
    29.12.2024 Carlisle United - Accrington Stanley 2:1
    05.09.2023 Accrington Stanley - Carlisle United 1:0
    Latest results of Accrington Stanley
    Latest results of Carlisle United
    English League Two Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Walsall1382319:12726
    2Swindon1381424:19525
    3MK Dons1373326:131324
    4Grimsby1373325:151024
    5Gillingham1364318:12622
    6Chesterfield1364323:20322
    7Salford1371518:17122
    8Notts Co1363423:15821
    9Cambridge Utd1363416:13321
    10Barnet1362516:13320
    11Crewe1361617:16119
    12Fleetwood1354419:19019
    13Bromley1346319:17218
    14Colchester1345421:18317
    15Barrow1352611:13-217
    16Bristol Rovers1352614:21-717
    17Oldham1336410:10015
    18Tranmere1235420:18214
    19Harrogate1342715:20-514
    20Accrington1233611:14-312
    21Shrewsbury1333710:20-1012
    22Cheltenham133289:25-1611
    23Crawley1323810:22-129
    24Newport1322911:23-128

          Promotion ~ League One
          Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ National League