Alianza Atlético vs Atlético Grau – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

29/06/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Campeones del 36 (Sullana).

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 17
Referee: Ordonez E. (Per)
Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.34	1.75
Ball Possession
50%	50%
Total shots
15	12
Shots on target
6	4
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
3	3
Passes
70% (163/232)	71% (165/231)
Yellow Cards
3	4
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34	1.75
xG on target (xGOT)
2.20	1.20
Total shots
15	12
Shots on target
6	4
Shots off target
8	8
Blocked Shots
1	0
Shots inside the Box
13	6
Shots outside the Box
2	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
3	3
Touches in opposition box
17	14
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
12	11
Passes
70% (163/232)	71% (165/231)
Long passes
42% (22/52)	42% (25/59)
Passes in final third
51% (35/68)	56% (45/80)
Crosses
67% (8/12)	39% (7/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.77	1.51
Throw-ins
14	17
Fouls
11	12
Tackles
73% (11/15)	86% (6/7)
Duels won
43	42
Clearances
27	30
Interceptions
4	11
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	4
xGOT faced
1.20	2.20
Goals prevented
0.20	0.20

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Guarderas R. 🟨,
37', Solis A. 🟨,
39', Perleche E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Solis A. ↓, Sandoval T. ↑,
53', Sandoval T. 🟨,
55', Bolivar J. 🟨,
60', Rostaing J. 🟥,
63', Ruidiaz R. ↓, Garcia B. ↑,
68', Perez M. 🟨,
69', Perleche E. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
69', Lupu H. ↓, Vasquez C. ↑,
69', Castro R. ↓, Espinosa R. ↑,
75', Villegas J. C. 🟨,
78', 0 - 1, Bolivar J. ⚽, Sandoval T. (A),
81', Vilca R. ↓, Rodas E. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Benincasa H. ⚽, Vasquez C. (A),
86', Bandiera N. ↓, Garro J. ↑,
86', Ysique F. ↓, del Castillo J. ↑,
86', Fernandez S. ↓, Diaz R. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Diaz R. ⚽, Vasquez C. (A),

Chances of winning

Alianza Atlético
41.7%

Draw
31.8%

Atlético Grau
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

28.4%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

27.9%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Atlético has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.23)	2.91 ↓ (3.34)	3.41 ↑ (3.29)	8.8% (5.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau?

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Alianza Atlético (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Alianza Atlético will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 2.
Alianza Atlético is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Grau has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Alianza Atlético may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Alianza Atlético will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There are questionable in Grau: Soto D. (Knee Injury)
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Alianza Atlético won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.7:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Alianza Atlético won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:6. (average 2.2:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Atlético won against Atlético Grau?

Alianza Atlético has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Grau won against Alianza Atlético?

Atlético Grau has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau were as follows:

14.07.2024 Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau 0:0

28.01.2024 Atlético Grau - Alianza Atlético 1:1

08.10.2023 Atlético Grau - Alianza Atlético 1:1

27.05.2023 Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau 3:2

09.10.2022 Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau 4:1

Latest results of Alianza Atlético

22.06.2025 Cienciano - Alianza Atlético 3:2 ✺

12.06.2025 Alianza Atlético - Comerciantes Unidos 3:0 ✺

01.06.2025 Los Chankas - Alianza Atlético 1:2 ✺

16.05.2025 Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso 1:0 ✺

11.05.2025 Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Atlético 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Atlético Grau

25.06.2025 Atlético Grau - Universitario de Deportes 0:2 ✺

19.06.2025 Atlético Grau - Cusco 0:0 ✺

13.06.2025 Cajamarca - Atlético Grau 0:2 ✺

29.05.2025 Godoy Cruz - Atlético Grau 2:2 ✺

24.05.2025 Atlético Grau - Escuela Municipal Binacional 3:0 ✺

Peruvian Liga 1 Table

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	U. de Deportes	12	9	3	0	23:8	15	30
2	Cusco	12	7	2	3	19:11	8	23
3	AD Tarma	13	6	3	4	17:17	0	21
4	Sporting Cristal	11	5	4	2	20:8	12	19
5	FBC Melgar	13	4	6	3	18:13	5	18
6	Alianza Lima	12	5	3	4	18:14	4	18
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	12	4	6	2	16:16	0	18
8	Alianza Atl	12	4	4	4	11:8	3	16
9	Comerciantes Unidos	12	4	4	4	14:17	-3	16
10	Sport Huancayo	13	4	3	6	23:22	1	15
11	Cienciano	11	4	3	4	16:15	1	15
12	Grau	12	4	3	5	16:15	1	15
13	Los Chankas	11	5	0	6	14:24	-10	15
14	Alianza Huanuco	12	4	1	7	14:24	-10	13
15	Sport Boys	12	3	3	6	10:16	-6	12
16	Juan Pablo II	11	2	5	4	9:14	-5	11
17	Ayacucho	12	3	2	7	10:19	-9	11
18	Cajamarca	11	1	3	7	9:16	-7	6
19	Binacional	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

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