Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/10/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto).

Primera A - Clausura - Round 14
Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.45	2.20
Ball Possession
41%	59%
Total shots
10	14
Shots on target
3	6
Big Chances
0	5
Corner Kicks
2	1
Passes
83% (248/300)	86% (377/439)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.45	2.20
xG on target (xGOT)
1.14	2.16
Total shots
10	14
Shots on target
3	6
Shots off target
3	7
Blocked Shots
4	1
Shots inside the Box
4	8
Shots outside the Box
6	6
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
0	1
Big Chances
0	5
Corner Kicks
2	1
Touches in opposition box
9	18
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
12	16
Passes
83% (248/300)	86% (377/439)
Long passes
50% (31/62)	50% (27/54)
Passes in final third
62% (41/66)	62% (58/93)
Crosses
27% (4/15)	28% (5/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.31	1.61
Throw-ins
12	27
Fouls
16	12
Tackles
82% (9/11)	100% (10/10)
Duels won
38	40
Clearances
29	10
Interceptions
7	3
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	0
xGOT faced
2.16	1.14
Goals prevented
-0.84	-1.86

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Jimenez M. S. ⚽,
32', 2 - 0, Bone F. ⚽, Castano M. (A),
45+3', 2 - 1, Torres E. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', 3 - 1, Espinal F. ⚽,
49', Caicedo J. 🟨,
52', 3 - 2, Lucumi C. ⚽,
67', Mendez J. ↓, Jaramillo F. ↑,
71', Fernandez W. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
71', Castillo J. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
73', Espinal F. ↓, Hurtado J. ↑,
76', Munoz J. ↓, Gil M. ↑,
78', Franco P. 🟨,
81', Torres E. ↓, Aponza Cantonil S. A. ↑,
82', Manjarres R. ↓, Mosquera F. ↑,
82', Valois Y. ↓, Preciado P. ↑,
82', Bone F. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
87', Jaramillo F. 🟨,
90+1', Mosquera F. 🟨,
90+7', 3 - 3, Lucumi C. (Pen),

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/56zet4sx

Chances of winning

Deportivo Pasto
34%

Draw
31.4%

Alianza Valledupar
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

29.4%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

29.6%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Pasto's form might have worsened.

Alianza Valledupar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Valledupar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Pasto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Valledupar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Deportivo Pasto - Alianza Valledupar Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.2)	2.96 ↓ (3.2)	2.75 ↓ (3.4)	7% (6.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Deportivo Pasto - Alianza Valledupar?

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Alianza will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 1.
Deportivo Pasto has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
In recent matches, Alianza has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Alianza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:20. (average 1.2:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Pasto won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.2:0.4).

How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Pasto won against Alianza Valledupar?

Deportivo Pasto has won 1 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Valledupar won against Deportivo Pasto?

Alianza Valledupar has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Deportivo Pasto - Alianza Valledupar were as follows:

15.04.2025 Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pasto 1:0

29.09.2024 Deportivo Pasto - Alianza Valledupar 1:0

15.03.2024 Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pasto 1:1

21.07.2023 Deportivo Pasto - Alianza Valledupar 1:1

04.06.2023 Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo Pasto 1:0

Latest results of Deportivo Pasto

01.10.2025 Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto 4:0 ✺

28.09.2025 Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto 2:0 ✺

24.09.2025 Deportivo Pasto - América de Cali 0:2 ✺

20.09.2025 Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Santa Fe 1:1 ✺

14.09.2025 Deportivo Cali - Deportivo Pasto 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Alianza Valledupar

27.09.2025 Alianza Valledupar - Llaneros SA 3:1 ✺

20.09.2025 Envigado - Alianza Valledupar 0:0 ✺

13.09.2025 Alianza Valledupar - Millonarios 3:0 ✺

09.09.2025 Independiente Santa Fe - Alianza Valledupar 4:1 ✺

06.09.2025 Atlético Bucaramanga - Alianza Valledupar 3:1 ✺

Colombian Primera A Table

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Junior	16	9	4	3	30:19	11	31
2	Bucaramanga	15	9	3	3	26:12	14	30
3	Ind. Medellin	15	9	3	3	33:21	12	30
4	Atl. Nacional	16	7	7	2	27:19	8	28
5	Fortaleza	16	7	7	2	21:16	5	28
6	Llaneros	16	7	4	5	16:14	2	25
7	Deportes Tolima	15	7	2	6	18:14	4	23
8	Santa Fe	15	5	6	4	16:14	2	21
9	Aguilas	16	5	6	5	21:22	-1	21
10	America De Cali	16	5	5	6	16:15	1	20
11	Alianza	16	5	5	6	19:21	-2	20
12	Dep. Cali	16	5	5	6	20:23	-3	20
13	Once Caldas	16	5	4	7	18:23	-5	19
14	Pereira	16	4	6	6	17:19	-2	18
15	U. Magdalena	16	5	3	8	20:26	-6	18
16	Millonarios	15	5	2	8	18:23	-5	17
17	Envigado	16	3	7	6	14:18	-4	16
18	Dep. Pasto	16	2	7	7	19:25	-6	13
19	Chico	16	2	7	7	11:23	-12	13
20	La Equidad	15	2	5	8	9:22	-13	11

Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )