Result
1:0
07/12/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 13
- Referee: Correia G. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 0.93 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (343/415) | 83% (352/426) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.07 | 0.93 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.62 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (343/415) | 83% (352/426) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (18/48) | 56% (30/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (76/103) | 59% (74/125) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (3/18) | 54% (7/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 1.39 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 50% (6/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.62 | 1.23 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.62 | 0.23 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 6', Lincoln (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 65', Labidi C. ↓, Baeza M. ↑,
- 65', Nourani M. ↓, Witi ↑,
- 66', Sandro Lima ↓, Marezi ↑,
- 66', Nuozzi C. ↓, Figueiredo ↑,
- 71', Touaizi N. 🟨,
- 85', Lincoln ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
- 85', Abdulai S. ↓, Gui D. ↑,
- 88', 1 - 0, Marezi ⚽, Gui D. (A),
- 90', Nunez A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 90', Vallier L. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 90', Matheus Dias ↓, Deivison ↑,
- 90+2', Amorim ↓, Baseya S. ↑,
- 90+3', Deivison 🟨,
Chances of winning
Alverca
43.3% | Draw
30.9% | Nacional
25.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Alverca - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.2 ↓
(2.33) |
3.05 ↓
(3.22) |
3.68 ↑
(3.15) |
5.4%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Alverca - Nacional?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alverca: 4% – 71%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Alverca (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 13).
- Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
- Alverca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Alverca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S.
(Inactive)
Leo Chu
(Inactive)
Paulo A.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Inactive)
Pablo Ruan
(Inactive)
Ulisses
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho
(Injury)
Mendes T.
(Inactive)
- In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.
How many head-to-head matches has Alverca won against Nacional?
Alverca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Alverca?
Nacional has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Alverca - Nacional were as follows:
Latest results of Alverca
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
