Grêmio Novorizontino vs América Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro
Result
3:1
12/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 16
  • Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.501.72
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
1917
Shots on target
57
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
23
Passes
82% (311/380)77% (246/318)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
3.501.72
xG on target (xGOT)
2.861.87
Total shots
1917
Shots on target
57
Shots off target
77
Blocked Shots
73
Shots inside the Box
139
Shots outside the Box
68
Hit the Woodwork
02
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
23
Touches in opposition box
2421
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
30
Free Kicks
1015
Passes
82% (311/380)77% (246/318)
Long passes
58% (41/71)35% (18/51)
Passes in final third
66% (68/103)57% (47/82)
Crosses
21% (3/14)44% (7/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.091.56
Throw-ins
2119
Fouls
1510
Tackles
68% (13/19)58% (7/12)
Duels won
4355
Clearances
2321
Interceptions
23
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
62
xGOT faced
1.872.86
Goals prevented
0.87-0.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 35', 0 - 1, Cauan Barros , Miguelito (A),
  • 45', 1 - 1, Matheus Frizzo (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 47', Dantas 🟨,
  • 54', Leo Natel , Pablo Dyego ,
  • 55', Marlon , Mayk ,
  • 63', Bruno Jose , Airton ,
  • 64', Stenio , Figueiredo ,
  • 68', Cauan Barros 🟨,
  • 71', 2 - 1, Pablo Dyego , Robson (A),
  • 80', Mariano , Jhosefer ,
  • 80', Cauan Barros , Elizari F. ,
  • 84', Elizari F. 🟨,
  • 87', Miguelito , Felipe Amaral ,
  • 87', Miqueias , Breno ,
  • 88', Julio Cesar 🟨,
  • 90+2', 3 - 1, Cesar Martins ,

Chances of winning


Grêmio Novorizontino
44.4%
Draw
31%
América Mineiro
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.3% 27.5% 21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6% 26.8% 20.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio Novorizontino's form might have worsened.
  • América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+8.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
  • Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.11
    (1.8)
    3.04
    (3.35)
    3.83
    (4.35)
    6.5%
    (8.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). América MG will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 50.6%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 12).
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • América MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Novorizontino is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Novorizontino: Nathan Fogaca (Inactive) Patrick (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Inactive) Vitinho (Inactive)
    • There will not play in América MG: Ale (Inactive) Guilherme Pato (Inactive) Samuel (Inactive) Willian Bigode (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Novorizontino: Waguininho (Inactive)
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
    • Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro were as follows:
    16.08.2024 Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro 1:1
    27.04.2024 América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:0
    Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
    Latest results of América Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Criciuma28147736:211549
    2Goias28147734:26849
    3Coritiba28138728:19947
    4Novorizontino281210631:25646
    5Athletico-PR28136942:36645
    6Cuiaba28119834:32242
    7Chapecoense-SC281251138:29941
    8Atletico GO281011731:28341
    9CRB281241231:26540
    10Avai281010836:30640
    11Operario-PR28109931:27439
    12Remo28912729:26339
    13Vila Nova FC281071128:30-237
    14Ferroviaria28712931:35-433
    15Athletic Club28951429:38-932
    16America MG28861427:34-730
    17Volta Redonda28791218:29-1130
    18Botafogo SP28781324:42-1829
    19Amazonas28691328:41-1327
    20Paysandu PA284101421:33-1222

          Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
          Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )