Result
3:1
12/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 16
- Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.50 | 1.72 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (311/380) | 77% (246/318) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.50 | 1.72 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.86 | 1.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (311/380) | 77% (246/318) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (41/71) | 35% (18/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (68/103) | 57% (47/82) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 21% (3/14) | 44% (7/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.09 | 1.56 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (13/19) | 58% (7/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 55 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.87 | 2.86 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.87 | -0.14 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 35', 0 - 1, Cauan Barros ⚽, Miguelito (A),
- 45', 1 - 1, Matheus Frizzo (Pen),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 47', Dantas 🟨,
- 54', Leo Natel ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
- 55', Marlon ↓, Mayk ↑,
- 63', Bruno Jose ↓, Airton ↑,
- 64', Stenio ↓, Figueiredo ↑,
- 68', Cauan Barros 🟨,
- 71', 2 - 1, Pablo Dyego ⚽, Robson (A),
- 80', Mariano ↓, Jhosefer ↑,
- 80', Cauan Barros ↓, Elizari F. ↑,
- 84', Elizari F. 🟨,
- 87', Miguelito ↓, Felipe Amaral ↑,
- 87', Miqueias ↓, Breno ↑,
- 88', Julio Cesar 🟨,
- 90+2', 3 - 1, Cesar Martins ⚽,
Chances of winning
Grêmio Novorizontino
44.4% | Draw
31% | América Mineiro
24.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio Novorizontino's form might have worsened.América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+8.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.11 ↑
(1.8) |
3.04 ↓
(3.35) |
3.83 ↓
(4.35) |
6.5%
(8.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). América MG will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 50.6% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 12).
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- América MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Novorizontino is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Novorizontino: Nathan Fogaca
(Inactive)
Patrick
(Yellow Cards)
Renato Palm
(Inactive)
Vitinho
(Inactive)
- There will not play in América MG: Ale
(Inactive)
Guilherme Pato
(Inactive)
Samuel
(Inactive)
Willian Bigode
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Novorizontino: Waguininho
(Inactive)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against América Mineiro?
Grêmio Novorizontino has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has América Mineiro won against Grêmio Novorizontino?
América Mineiro has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro were as follows:
16.08.2024
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
América Mineiro
1:1
27.04.2024
América Mineiro
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
2:0
Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
Latest results of América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coritiba | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 34:21 | 13 | 56 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 36:27 | 9 | 54 |
| 3 | Criciuma | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 42:29 | 13 | 53 |
| 4 | Goias | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 36:29 | 7 | 52 |
| 5 | Chapecoense-SC | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 44:31 | 13 | 51 |
| 6 | Remo | 32 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 39:31 | 8 | 51 |
| 7 | Athletico-PR | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 45:42 | 3 | 49 |
| 8 | Cuiaba | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 38:35 | 3 | 49 |
| 9 | CRB | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 38:33 | 5 | 47 |
| 10 | Atletico GO | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 35:33 | 2 | 45 |
| 11 | Avai | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 40:34 | 6 | 44 |
| 12 | Vila Nova FC | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 32:33 | -1 | 43 |
| 13 | Operario-PR | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | -4 | 39 |
| 14 | America MG | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 34:39 | -5 | 37 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37:44 | -7 | 37 |
| 16 | Ferroviaria | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 36:42 | -6 | 37 |
| 17 | Volta Redonda | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 22:34 | -12 | 34 |
| 18 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 27:47 | -20 | 33 |
| 19 | Amazonas | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33:48 | -15 | 32 |
| 20 | Paysandu PA | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 28:40 | -12 | 26 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
