Grêmio Novorizontino vs América Mineiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie B Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro
Result
3:1
12/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B Superbet - Round 16
  • Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.501.72
Ball Possession
54%46%
Total shots
1917
Shots on target
57
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
23
Passes
82% (311/380)77% (246/318)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
3.501.72
xG on target (xGOT)
2.861.87
Total shots
1917
Shots on target
57
Shots off target
77
Blocked Shots
73
Shots inside the Box
139
Shots outside the Box
68
Hit the Woodwork
02
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
33
Corner Kicks
23
Touches in opposition box
2421
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
30
Free Kicks
1015
Passes
82% (311/380)77% (246/318)
Long passes
58% (41/71)35% (18/51)
Passes in final third
66% (68/103)57% (47/82)
Crosses
21% (3/14)44% (7/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.091.56
Throw-ins
2119
Fouls
1510
Tackles
68% (13/19)58% (7/12)
Duels won
4355
Clearances
2321
Interceptions
23
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
62
xGOT faced
1.872.86
Goals prevented
0.87-0.14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 35', 0 - 1, Cauan Barros , Miguelito (A),
  • 45', 1 - 1, Matheus Frizzo (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 47', Dantas 🟨,
  • 54', Leo Natel , Pablo Dyego ,
  • 55', Marlon , Mayk ,
  • 63', Bruno Jose , Airton ,
  • 64', Stenio , Figueiredo ,
  • 68', Cauan Barros 🟨,
  • 71', 2 - 1, Pablo Dyego , Robson (A),
  • 80', Mariano , Jhosefer ,
  • 80', Cauan Barros , Elizari F. ,
  • 84', Elizari F. 🟨,
  • 87', Miguelito , Felipe Amaral ,
  • 87', Miqueias , Breno ,
  • 88', Julio Cesar 🟨,
  • 90+2', 3 - 1, Cesar Martins ,

Chances of winning


Grêmio Novorizontino
44.4%
Draw
31%
América Mineiro
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.3% 27.5% 21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6% 26.8% 20.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio Novorizontino's form might have worsened.
  • América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+8.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
  • Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.11
    (1.8)
    3.04
    (3.35)
    3.83
    (4.35)
    6.5%
    (8.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). América MG will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 50.6%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 12).
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • América MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Novorizontino is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Novorizontino: Nathan Fogaca (Inactive) Patrick (Yellow Cards) Renato Palm (Inactive) Vitinho (Inactive)
    • There will not play in América MG: Ale (Inactive) Guilherme Pato (Inactive) Samuel (Inactive) Willian Bigode (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Novorizontino: Waguininho (Inactive)
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).
    • Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro were as follows:
    16.08.2024 Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro 1:1
    27.04.2024 América Mineiro - Grêmio Novorizontino 2:0
    Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
    Latest results of América Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie B Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Goias24135631:23844
    2Coritiba24127524:16843
    3Chapecoense-SC24125736:221441
    4Criciuma24116731:211039
    5Novorizontino2499626:23336
    6Remo24811524:21335
    7CRB241041026:22434
    8Vila Nova FC241041024:24034
    9Cuiaba2497829:29034
    10Operario-PR2496926:23333
    11Athletico-PR2496931:33-233
    12Avai2489730:25533
    13Ferroviaria24710727:26131
    14Atletico GO24710726:26031
    15Athletic Club24841226:33-728
    16Botafogo SP24771020:33-1328
    17America MG24741325:32-725
    18Amazonas24591025:34-924
    19Volta Redonda24581114:26-1223
    20Paysandu PA24491120:29-921

          Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
          Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )