Result
1:1
05/10/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 8
- Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 2.08 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (237/308) | 81% (279/346) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.66 | 2.08 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 0.27 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 7 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (237/308) | 81% (279/346) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (19/57) | 60% (28/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 53% (39/73) | 70% (71/101) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (2/13) | 34% (12/35) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.33 | 2.45 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 22 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 57% (8/14) | 86% (12/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 34 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.27 | 0.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.73 | -0.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 55', Barbero I. ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
- 58', 1 - 0, Trezza A. ⚽,
- 61', Gil Dias 🟨,
- 65', Fontan J. 🟨,
- 67', Sorriso ↓, Joujou A. ↑,
- 67', Mamageishvili O. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
- 69', Fukui T. 🟨,
- 71', Simao D. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 71', Gozalbez P. ↓, van Ee E. ↑,
- 79', Puche 🟨,
- 80', Elisor S. ↓, Abubakar U. ↑,
- 83', Sola A. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
- 83', Djouahra N. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 84', Fontan J. 🟨,
- 86', 1 - 1, De Haas J. ⚽,
- 87', Gil Dias ↓, Rochinha ↑,
- 90+1', Mansilla B. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Arouca
26.4% | Draw
28.1% | Famalicão
45.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arouca's form might have worsened.Famalicão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Famalicão's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+7.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-8.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Famalicão, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Arouca - Famalicão Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.54 ↑
(2.88) |
3.37 ↑
(3.28) |
2.1 ↓
(2.49) |
5.7%
(5.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Arouca - Famalicão?
Users Predictions:
Famalicão will win
(33 of 40 users predict this - 82.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.72% – 94.28%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Famalicão will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 6).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Arouca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Famalicão might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Arouca: Flores M.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O.
(Knee Injury)
Pastor G.
(Inactive)
Zabiri Y.
(International duty)
- There are questionable in Famalicão: Beney R.
(Inactive)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.3:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 2.2:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Famalicão?
Arouca has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Famalicão won against Arouca?
Famalicão has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Famalicão were as follows:
05.04.2025
Arouca
-
Famalicão
1:2
09.11.2024
Famalicão
-
Arouca
0:0
23.02.2024
Arouca
-
Famalicão
3:2
22.09.2023
Famalicão
-
Arouca
1:0
03.04.2023
Famalicão
-
Arouca
0:1
Latest results of Famalicão
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19:1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20:5 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:4 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Benfica | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Moreirense | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:12 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Braga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Nacional | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | Alverca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Arouca | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10:19 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 11:13 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Estrela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Estoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Tondela | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4:14 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | AFS | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:20 | -15 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
