Result
2:2
28/12/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 16
- Referee: Bessa J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
 Portugal | Sport TV4 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 1.88 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (212/298) | 76% (262/345) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.36 | 1.88 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.69 | 2.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (212/298) | 76% (262/345) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (31/69) | 40% (16/40) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 46% (39/85) | 58% (54/93) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 9% (1/11) | 27% (6/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.26 | 0.99 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 33 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (12/15) | 80% (8/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 26 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.21 | 1.69 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.21 | -0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 9', 1 - 0, Lee H. ⚽, Trezza A. (A),
- 12', 2 - 0, Trezza A. ⚽,
- 41', 2 - 1, Pablo ⚽, Esteves L. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 48', 2 - 2, Murilo de Souza ⚽,
- 57', Fayed O. 🟨,
- 64', Fayed O. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
- 64', Lee H. ↓, Popovic B. ↑,
- 75', Toure T. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
- 75', Pablo ↓, Varela G. ↑,
- 75', Garcia S. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
- 77', Pedro Santos 🟨,
- 78', Barbero I. ↓, Puche ↑,
- 80', Caseres F. 🟨,
- 83', Pedro Santos ↓, Fukui T. ↑,
- 83', Djouahra N. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
- 86', van Ee E. 🟨,
- 86', Esteves L. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
- 90', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
- 90+1', Caseres F. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
- 90+7', Bamba M. 🟨,
- 90+7', Popovic B. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Arouca
21.4% | Draw
28.8% | Gil Vicente
49.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
Arouca - Gil Vicente Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.39 ↑
(3.91) |
3.3 ↓
(3.32) |
1.89 ↓
(2) |
6%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Arouca - Gil Vicente?
Users Predictions:
46 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 8 - 17.4%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 31 - 67.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 15.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 53.9% – 80.9%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Arouca (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Gil Vicente (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- 1X2, 1st Half - Arouca (4.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Gil Vicente will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 16 high ROI users predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Gil Vicente (votes: 12 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1.
- Arouca is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Gil Vicente has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Arouca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Gil Vicente is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Arouca: Dante A.
(International duty)
Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M.
(Inactive)
Buatu J.
(International duty)
Konan G.
(International duty)
Mutombo J.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Arouca: Popovic B.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Moreira A.
(Injury)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 29:10. (average 1.8:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 1.7:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Gil Vicente?
Arouca has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gil Vicente won against Arouca?
Gil Vicente has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Gil Vicente were as follows:
10.05.2025
Gil Vicente
-
Arouca
1:1
27.12.2024
Arouca
-
Gil Vicente
1:1
26.04.2024
Gil Vicente
-
Arouca
2:2
16.12.2023
Arouca
-
Gil Vicente
3:0
05.02.2023
Gil Vicente
-
Arouca
1:1
Latest results of Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
