Result
1:3
29/08/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 7
- Referee: Camacho Peregrina J. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Argentina | Disney+ |
Brazil | Disney+ |
Chile | Disney+ |
Colombia | Disney+ |
Mexico | Disney+, ESPN |
North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte |
Peru | Disney+ |
South-america | ViX Latin America |
Uruguay | Disney+ |
Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.02 | 2.33 |
Ball Possession |
---|
53% | 47% |
Total shots |
---|
8 | 17 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 6 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 5 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
1 | 8 |
Passes |
---|
87% (390/446) | 84% (344/409) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
5 | 2 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
1.02 | 2.33 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.69 | 1.95 |
Total shots |
---|
8 | 17 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 6 |
Shots off target |
---|
4 | 2 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
1 | 9 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
6 | 13 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
2 | 4 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 5 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
1 | 8 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
17 | 28 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
1 | 1 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 2 |
Free Kicks |
---|
16 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
87% (390/446) | 84% (344/409) |
Long passes |
---|
56% (19/34) | 52% (26/50) |
Passes in final third |
---|
74% (83/112) | 75% (66/88) |
Crosses |
---|
15% (3/20) | 33% (4/12) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.58 | 2.09 |
Throw-ins |
---|
20 | 17 |
Fouls |
---|
11 | 16 |
Tackles |
---|
18% (2/11) | 47% (8/17) |
Duels won |
---|
52 | 38 |
Clearances |
---|
19 | 22 |
Interceptions |
---|
5 | 12 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 2 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.95 | 0.69 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.05 | -0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 20', Vega A. 🟨,
- 29', 0 - 1, Vega A. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 32', Juanpe 🟨,
- 35', Salles-Lamonge S. 🟨,
- 40', Joao Pedro Galvao 🟨,
- 44', Yan Phillipe 🟨,
- 45+4', 0 - 2, Torres R. (Own goal),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Torres R. ↓, Suarez J. ↑,
- 47', Romero F. 🟨,
- 58', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 58', Simon S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 61', 0 - 3, Morales R. ⚽,
- 65', 1 - 3, Najera R. ⚽, Salles-Lamonge S. (A),
- 67', Yan Phillipe ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
- 67', Najera R. ↓, Barajas F. ↑,
- 67', Juanpe ↓, Guillen D. ↑,
- 69', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 85', Klimowicz M. ↓, Galdames B. ↑,
- 88', Vega A. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 88', Romero F. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
- 90+9', Aguila E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Atlético San Luis 22.9% | Draw 23.5% | Toluca 53.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético San Luis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Atlético San Luis - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
4.14 ↓ (4.18) |
3.97 ↓ (3.98) |
1.75 ↑ (1.73) |
6.4% (7.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Atlético San Luis - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toluca will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis won 0.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Atlético San Luis has had a series of away games.
- Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Atlético San Luis: Lopez De Alba C. I.
(Knee Injury)
Sanabria J.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlético San Luis: Macias O.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Castro H.
(Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:21. (average 0.8:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético San Luis won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético San Luis won against Toluca?
Atlético San Luis has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Atlético San Luis?
Toluca has won 5 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético San Luis - Toluca were as follows:
16.04.2025
Atlético San Luis
-
Toluca
0:1
25.08.2024
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
2:1
19.04.2024
Atlético San Luis
-
Toluca
1:5
29.10.2023
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
3:1
26.02.2023
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
2:0
Latest results of Atlético San Luis
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Monterrey | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17:9 | 8 | 18 |
2 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15:6 | 9 | 17 |
3 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15:8 | 7 | 17 |
4 | Tigres UANL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 13 |
5 | Toluca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:10 | 6 | 13 |
6 | Pachuca | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 13 |
7 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:9 | 4 | 12 |
8 | Juarez | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 11 |
9 | Club Leon | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 10 |
10 | UNAM Pumas | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 9 |
11 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9:11 | -2 | 6 |
12 | Mazatlan FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | -2 | 6 |
13 | Atl. San Luis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
14 | Atlas | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12:19 | -7 | 5 |
15 | Necaxa | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6:13 | -7 | 5 |
16 | Guadalajara Chivas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 4 |
17 | Queretaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | -8 | 4 |
18 | Puebla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:18 | -12 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )