Result
0:1
16/04/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 16
- Referee: Quintero M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
 World | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.30 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (355/433) | 85% (375/439) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.60 | 1.30 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.11 | 1.34 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (355/433) | 85% (375/439) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 48% (25/52) | 52% (23/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (67/100) | 68% (56/82) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (8/28) | 43% (3/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.47 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 43% (9/21) | 38% (8/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 43 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.11 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.34 | 0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 16', 0 - 1, Gallardo J. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 51', del Villar E. 🟨,
- 65', Abitia D. ↓, Klimowicz M. ↑,
- 70', Helinho ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 71', Salles-Lamonge S. 🟨,
- 77', Romero F. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
- 77', Vega A. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 79', Salles-Lamonge S. ↓, Galdames B. ↑,
- 90+1', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlético San Luis
20.1% | Draw
22.8% | Toluca
57.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético San Luis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Atlético San Luis - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.68 ↑
(4.33) |
4.15 ↑
(3.55) |
1.66 ↓
(1.81) |
5.9%
(6.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Atlético San Luis - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Atlético San Luis will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Toluca will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 29% – 96%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético San Luis won 1.
- Recent matches Atlético San Luis is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Toluca in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).
- In this match Toluca is a favorite.
- There will not play in Atlético San Luis: Boli F.
(Thigh Injury)
Leo Bonatini
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in Toluca: Briseno A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Romero F.
(Injury)
- Last 10 head-to-head matches Atlético San Luis won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 9:20 (average 0.9:2).
- Including matches at home between the teams Atlético San Luis won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:6 (average 0.5:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético San Luis won against Toluca?
Atlético San Luis has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Atlético San Luis?
Toluca has won 4 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético San Luis - Toluca were as follows:
25.08.2024
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
2:1
19.04.2024
Atlético San Luis
-
Toluca
1:5
29.10.2023
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
3:1
26.02.2023
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
2:0
Latest results of Atlético San Luis
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Pachuca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Club America | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Atlas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Mazatlan FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Atl. San Luis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Juarez | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Puebla | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | UNAM Pumas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
