Result
1:3
29/08/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 7
- Referee: Camacho Peregrina J. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 2.33 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (390/446) | 84% (344/409) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.02 | 2.33 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.95 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 13 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (390/446) | 84% (344/409) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (19/34) | 52% (26/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (83/112) | 75% (66/88) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (3/20) | 33% (4/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 2.09 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 20 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 47% (8/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.95 | 0.69 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.05 | -0.31 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 20', Vega A. 🟨,
- 29', 0 - 1, Vega A. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
- 32', Juanpe 🟨,
- 35', Salles-Lamonge S. 🟨,
- 40', Joao Pedro Galvao 🟨,
- 44', Yan Phillipe 🟨,
- 45+4', 0 - 2, Torres R. (Own goal),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Torres R. ↓, Suarez J. ↑,
- 47', Romero F. 🟨,
- 58', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 58', Simon S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 61', 0 - 3, Morales R. ⚽,
- 65', 1 - 3, Najera R. ⚽, Salles-Lamonge S. (A),
- 67', Yan Phillipe ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
- 67', Najera R. ↓, Barajas F. ↑,
- 67', Juanpe ↓, Guillen D. ↑,
- 69', Angulo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 85', Klimowicz M. ↓, Galdames B. ↑,
- 88', Vega A. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 88', Romero F. ↓, Arce F. ↑,
- 90+9', Aguila E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Atlético San Luis
22.9% | Draw
23.5% | Toluca
53.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético San Luis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Atlético San Luis - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.14 ↓
(4.18) |
3.97 ↓
(3.98) |
1.75 ↑
(1.73) |
6.4%
(7.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Atlético San Luis - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.85% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Toluca will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis won 0.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Atlético San Luis has had a series of away games.
- Toluca could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Atlético San Luis: Lopez De Alba C. I.
(Knee Injury)
Sanabria J.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Toluca: Helinho
(Injury)
Luan
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlético San Luis: Macias O.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Castro H.
(Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Atlético San Luis won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:21. (average 0.8:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético San Luis won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético San Luis won against Toluca?
Atlético San Luis has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Atlético San Luis?
Toluca has won 5 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético San Luis - Toluca were as follows:
16.04.2025
Atlético San Luis
-
Toluca
0:1
25.08.2024
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
2:1
19.04.2024
Atlético San Luis
-
Toluca
1:5
29.10.2023
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
3:1
26.02.2023
Toluca
-
Atlético San Luis
2:0
Latest results of Atlético San Luis
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31:14 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Monterrey | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23:17 | 6 | 25 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:12 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19:10 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19:9 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Juarez | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19:11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Club Leon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Atl. San Luis | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16:18 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlas | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:26 | -8 | 10 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:20 | -9 | 9 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Puebla | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9:26 | -17 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
