Padova vs Avellino – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Italian Serie B Padova - Avellino
Result
2:2
30/09/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie B - Round 6
  • Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
italyItalyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.961.06
Ball Possession
45%55%
Total shots
1112
Shots on target
35
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
41
Passes
86% (411/478)86% (509/592)
Yellow Cards
21
Expected Goals (xG)
0.961.06
xG on target (xGOT)
0.902.08
Total shots
1112
Shots on target
35
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
54
Shots inside the Box
84
Shots outside the Box
38
Hit the Woodwork
11
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
32
Corner Kicks
41
Touches in opposition box
2411
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
1314
Passes
86% (411/478)86% (509/592)
Long passes
54% (26/48)59% (38/64)
Passes in final third
72% (84/116)75% (117/156)
Crosses
27% (6/22)17% (3/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.010.90
Throw-ins
818
Fouls
1413
Tackles
44% (7/16)44% (4/9)
Duels won
5435
Clearances
1917
Interceptions
169
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
31
xGOT faced
2.080.90
Goals prevented
0.08-1.10

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 2)
  • 9', 1 - 0, Sgarbi F. , Favale G. (A),
  • 29', 2 - 0, Buonaiuto C. , Varas K. (A),
  • 31', 2 - 1, Biasci T. , Lescano F. (A),
  • 44', 2 - 2, Lescano F. , Missori F. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 54', Favale G. 🟨,
  • 56', Favale G. , Barreca A. ,
  • 57', Buonaiuto C. , Lasagna K. ,
  • 62', Insigne R. , Besaggio M. ,
  • 73', Missori F. , Russo R. ,
  • 73', Lescano F. , Crespi V. ,
  • 77', Fusi P. , Crisetig L. ,
  • 77', Varas K. , Di Maggio L. ,
  • 82', Cancellotti T. , Simic L. ,
  • 83', Palmiero L. , Palumbo M. ,
  • 84', Harder J. , Silva J. ,
  • 85', Di Maggio L. 🟨,
  • 89', Russo R. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/4j9zww5t

Chances of winning


Padova
46.2%
Draw
30.7%
Avellino
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.6% 28.7% 27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8% 28.2% 28.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
  • Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Avellino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Padova - Avellino Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.1
    (2.15)
    3.22
    (3.26)
    4.37
    (3.39)
    1.6%
    (6.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Padova - Avellino?
  • Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Avellino will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.2%83%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 25%). Avellino (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
    • Padova has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Avellino is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Padova might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Inactive) Boi A. (Inactive) Papu Gomez (Suspended) Pastina C. (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Avellino: D'Andrea L. (Knee Injury) De Cristofaro A. (Knee Injury) Favilli A. (Tendon Injury) Patierno C. (Illness) Rigione M. (Muscle Injury) Sounas D. (Inactive) Tutino G. (Ankle Injury)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Avellino were as follows:
    03.05.2025 Avellino - Padova 0:1
    Latest results of Padova
    27.09.2025 Monza - Padova 0:1
    21.09.2025 Padova - Virtus Entella 2:1
    13.09.2025 Padova - Frosinone 0:1
    31.08.2025 Carrarese - Padova 0:0
    23.08.2025 Empoli - Padova 3:1
    Latest results of Avellino
    27.09.2025 Avellino - Virtus Entella 2:0
    21.09.2025 Carrarese - Avellino 3:4
    12.09.2025 Avellino - Monza 2:1
    31.08.2025 Modena - Avellino 1:1
    24.08.2025 Frosinone - Avellino 2:0
    Italian Serie B Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palermo74309:3615
    2Modena642011:3814
    3Frosinone742113:7614
    4Venezia733110:5512
    5Avellino733111:9212
    6Cesena632110:8211
    7Monza73227:6111
    8Juve Stabia62408:5310
    9Sudtirol623110:829
    10Padova72237:9-28
    11Carrarese61418:717
    12Reggiana61328:9-16
    13Catanzaro70617:8-16
    14Entella61326:8-26
    15Empoli61328:12-46
    16Bari71337:12-56
    17Pescara612310:1005
    18Mantova71155:13-84
    19Spezia70344:11-73
    20Sampdoria60243:9-62

          Promotion ~ Serie A
          Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
          Serie B (Play Out: )
          Relegation