Result
2:2
30/09/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 6
- Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
---|
Italy | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.96 | 1.06 |
Ball Possession |
---|
45% | 55% |
Total shots |
---|
11 | 12 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 5 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
4 | 1 |
Passes |
---|
86% (411/478) | 86% (509/592) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
2 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.96 | 1.06 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.90 | 2.08 |
Total shots |
---|
11 | 12 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 5 |
Shots off target |
---|
3 | 3 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
5 | 4 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
8 | 4 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
3 | 8 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
1 | 1 |
Headed Goals |
---|
1 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
3 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
4 | 1 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
24 | 11 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
1 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 0 |
Free Kicks |
---|
13 | 14 |
Passes |
---|
86% (411/478) | 86% (509/592) |
Long passes |
---|
54% (26/48) | 59% (38/64) |
Passes in final third |
---|
72% (84/116) | 75% (117/156) |
Crosses |
---|
27% (6/22) | 17% (3/18) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
1.01 | 0.90 |
Throw-ins |
---|
8 | 18 |
Fouls |
---|
14 | 13 |
Tackles |
---|
44% (7/16) | 44% (4/9) |
Duels won |
---|
54 | 35 |
Clearances |
---|
19 | 17 |
Interceptions |
---|
16 | 9 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
3 | 1 |
xGOT faced |
---|
2.08 | 0.90 |
Goals prevented |
---|
0.08 | -1.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 9', 1 - 0, Sgarbi F. ⚽, Favale G. (A),
- 29', 2 - 0, Buonaiuto C. ⚽, Varas K. (A),
- 31', 2 - 1, Biasci T. ⚽, Lescano F. (A),
- 44', 2 - 2, Lescano F. ⚽, Missori F. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 54', Favale G. 🟨,
- 56', Favale G. ↓, Barreca A. ↑,
- 57', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
- 62', Insigne R. ↓, Besaggio M. ↑,
- 73', Missori F. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
- 73', Lescano F. ↓, Crespi V. ↑,
- 77', Fusi P. ↓, Crisetig L. ↑,
- 77', Varas K. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 82', Cancellotti T. ↓, Simic L. ↑,
- 83', Palmiero L. ↓, Palumbo M. ↑,
- 84', Harder J. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 85', Di Maggio L. 🟨,
- 89', Russo R. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/4j9zww5t
Chances of winning
Padova 46.2% | Draw 30.7% | Avellino 23.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+5.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Avellino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Padova - Avellino Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.1 ↓ (2.15) |
3.22 ↓ (3.26) |
4.37 ↑ (3.39) |
1.6% (6.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Padova - Avellino?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Avellino will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.2% – 83%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 25%). Avellino (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Padova has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Avellino is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Padova might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Inactive)
Boi A.
(Inactive)
Papu Gomez
(Suspended)
Pastina C.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Avellino: D'Andrea L.
(Knee Injury)
De Cristofaro A.
(Knee Injury)
Favilli A.
(Tendon Injury)
Patierno C.
(Illness)
Rigione M.
(Muscle Injury)
Sounas D.
(Inactive)
Tutino G.
(Ankle Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Avellino?
Padova has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Avellino won against Padova?
Avellino has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Avellino were as follows:
03.05.2025
Avellino
-
Padova
0:1
Latest results of Avellino
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Palermo | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9:3 | 6 | 15 |
2 | Modena | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11:3 | 8 | 14 |
3 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Venezia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:5 | 5 | 12 |
5 | Avellino | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 2 | 12 |
6 | Cesena | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 2 | 11 |
7 | Monza | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 11 |
8 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
9 | Sudtirol | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10:8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Padova | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 8 |
11 | Carrarese | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8:7 | 1 | 7 |
12 | Reggiana | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 6 |
13 | Catanzaro | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7:8 | -1 | 6 |
14 | Entella | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 6 |
15 | Empoli | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:12 | -4 | 6 |
16 | Bari | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | -5 | 6 |
17 | Pescara | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 5 |
18 | Mantova | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:13 | -8 | 4 |
19 | Spezia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4:11 | -7 | 3 |
20 | Sampdoria | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation