Result
2:2
30/09/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 6
- Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 1.06 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (411/478) | 86% (509/592) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 1.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 2.08 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (411/478) | 86% (509/592) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (26/48) | 59% (38/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (84/116) | 75% (117/156) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (6/22) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.90 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 8 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 44% (7/16) | 44% (4/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 16 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.08 | 0.90 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.08 | -1.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 9', 1 - 0, Sgarbi F. ⚽, Favale G. (A),
- 29', 2 - 0, Buonaiuto C. ⚽, Varas K. (A),
- 31', 2 - 1, Biasci T. ⚽, Lescano F. (A),
- 44', 2 - 2, Lescano F. ⚽, Missori F. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 54', Favale G. 🟨,
- 56', Favale G. ↓, Barreca A. ↑,
- 57', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
- 62', Insigne R. ↓, Besaggio M. ↑,
- 73', Missori F. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
- 73', Lescano F. ↓, Crespi V. ↑,
- 77', Fusi P. ↓, Crisetig L. ↑,
- 77', Varas K. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 82', Cancellotti T. ↓, Simic L. ↑,
- 83', Palmiero L. ↓, Palumbo M. ↑,
- 84', Harder J. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 85', Di Maggio L. 🟨,
- 89', Russo R. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/4j9zww5t
Chances of winning
Padova
46.2% | Draw
30.7% | Avellino
23.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-3.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+5.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Avellino could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Padova - Avellino Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.1 ↓
(2.15) |
3.22 ↓
(3.26) |
4.37 ↑
(3.39) |
1.6%
(6.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Padova - Avellino?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Avellino will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 57.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.2% – 83%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 25%). Avellino (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Padova has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Avellino is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Padova might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Inactive)
Boi A.
(Inactive)
Papu Gomez
(Suspended)
Pastina C.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Avellino: D'Andrea L.
(Knee Injury)
De Cristofaro A.
(Knee Injury)
Favilli A.
(Tendon Injury)
Patierno C.
(Illness)
Rigione M.
(Muscle Injury)
Sounas D.
(Inactive)
Tutino G.
(Ankle Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Avellino?
Padova has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Avellino won against Padova?
Avellino has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Avellino were as follows:
03.05.2025
Avellino
-
Padova
0:1
Latest results of Avellino
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Modena | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 16:5 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Monza | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Cesena | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14:11 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 | Palermo | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10:5 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Carrarese | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16:11 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Venezia | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Juve Stabia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Reggiana | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:14 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Avellino | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11:15 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Padova | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Sudtirol | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Entella | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Empoli | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Catanzaro | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Pescara | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Spezia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9:13 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 6 |
| 19 | Bari | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8:15 | -7 | 6 |
| 20 | Mantova | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
