Result
2:2
03/03/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 28
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 1.10 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (338/415) | 78% (325/416) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 1.10 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 1.95 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (338/415) | 78% (325/416) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (27/48) | 48% (22/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (83/116) | 62% (76/122) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (7/27) | 19% (3/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 0.73 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (10/16) | 56% (5/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 39 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.95 | 1.49 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.05 | -0.51 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 14', Aurelio G. 🟨,
- 24', 0 - 1, Artistico G. ⚽, Bonfanti G. (A),
- 39', 1 - 1, Sgarbi F. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 50', Ruggero M. 🟨,
- 58', Caprari G. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
- 60', Bellemo A. ↓, Bandinelli F. ↑,
- 60', Nagy A. ↓, Romano A. ↑,
- 71', Capelli A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 71', Faedo C. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
- 75', Vlahovic V. ↓, Valoti M. ↑,
- 75', Ruggero M. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
- 78', 2 - 1, Lasagna K. ⚽, Fusi P. (A),
- 81', Mateju A. ↓, Beruatto P. ↑,
- 82', 2 - 2, Bonfanti G. ⚽, Beruatto P. (A),
- 85', Di Mariano F. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 85', Lasagna K. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Padova
36.4% | Draw
32.6% | Spezia
31% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Spezia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Spezia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Padova - Spezia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.61 ↓
(2.79) |
2.91 ↓
(3.08) |
3.02 ↑
(2.51) |
5.9%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Padova - Spezia?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Spezia will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 89.4%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Spezia (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Padova (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Spezia (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 25%). Spezia (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Barreca A.
(Inactive)
Ghiglione P.
(Inactive)
Papu Gomez
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Spezia: Cassata F.
(Muscle Injury)
Hristov P.
(Inactive)
Lapadula G.
(Inactive)
Sarr M.
(Ankle Injury)
Zurkowski S.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:11. (average 1.4:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Spezia?
Padova has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Padova?
Spezia has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Spezia were as follows:
29.10.2025
Spezia
-
Padova
1:1
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 73:29 | 44 | 78 |
| 2 | Monza | 36 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 57:27 | 30 | 75 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 36 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 70:34 | 36 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 58:29 | 29 | 69 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 36 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 58:45 | 13 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 47:34 | 13 | 52 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 43:43 | 0 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 42:54 | -12 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 45 |
| 10 | Carrarese | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 43 |
| 11 | Mantova | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 42:50 | -8 | 43 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 34:47 | -13 | 41 |
| 13 | Sudtirol | 36 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 37:46 | -9 | 40 |
| 14 | Padova | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 34:46 | -12 | 40 |
| 15 | Entella | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 34:48 | -14 | 39 |
| 16 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 37 |
| 17 | Pescara | 36 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 50:64 | -14 | 34 |
| 18 | Bari | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 33:58 | -25 | 34 |
| 19 | Reggiana | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34:54 | -20 | 34 |
| 20 | Spezia | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 40:56 | -16 | 33 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
