Result
1:1
21/02/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 26
- Referee: Collu G. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 1.59 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (359/442) | 83% (307/369) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 1.59 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 1.30 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 81% (359/442) | 83% (307/369) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 44% (26/59) | 33% (13/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (83/125) | 81% (91/112) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (5/25) | 29% (5/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.73 | 1.65 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (10/20) | 100% (6/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 60 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.30 | 1.44 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.30 | 0.44 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 13', 1 - 0, Di Mariano F. ⚽, Buonaiuto C. (A),
- 32', Maggiore G. 🟨,
- 39', Cistana A. 🟨,
- 45', Barreca A. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 1, Piscopo K. ⚽, Cavuoti N. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 48', Fusi P. 🟨,
- 56', Piscopo K. 🟨,
- 63', Capelli A. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
- 63', Cavuoti N. ↓, De Pieri G. ↑,
- 69', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
- 78', Maggiore G. ↓, Traore D. ↑,
- 78', Rao E. ↓, Esteves T. ↑,
- 79', Moncini G. ↓, Cuni M. ↑,
- 82', Bortolussi M. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
- 82', Fusi P. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 90', Cuni M. 🟨,
- 90+3', Perrotta M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Padova
44.4% | Draw
30% | Bari
25.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+3.1%)
Padova - Bari Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.14 ↓
(2.32) |
3.12 ↑
(3.05) |
3.66 ↑
(3.09) |
6.2%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Padova - Bari?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Bari will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Padova: 23.4% – 70.8%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 13 and 19 in the zone Relegation).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 0.
- The current form of both teams is below expectations.
- Padova is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Papu Gomez
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Bari: Darboe E.
(Thigh Injury)
Dickmann L.
(Inactive)
Nikolaou D.
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Bari: De Pieri G.
(Inactive)
Verreth M.
(Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Padova won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 0.7:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Bari?
Padova has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bari won against Padova?
Bari has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Bari were as follows:
04.10.2025
Bari
-
Padova
2:1
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 73:29 | 44 | 78 |
| 2 | Monza | 36 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 57:27 | 30 | 75 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 36 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 70:34 | 36 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 58:29 | 29 | 69 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 36 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 58:45 | 13 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 47:34 | 13 | 52 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 43:43 | 0 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 42:54 | -12 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 45 |
| 10 | Carrarese | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 43 |
| 11 | Mantova | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 42:50 | -8 | 43 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 34:47 | -13 | 41 |
| 13 | Sudtirol | 36 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 37:46 | -9 | 40 |
| 14 | Padova | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 34:46 | -12 | 40 |
| 15 | Entella | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 34:48 | -14 | 39 |
| 16 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 37 |
| 17 | Pescara | 36 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 50:64 | -14 | 34 |
| 18 | Bari | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 33:58 | -25 | 34 |
| 19 | Reggiana | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34:54 | -20 | 34 |
| 20 | Spezia | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 40:56 | -16 | 33 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
