Result
1:0
07/03/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 29
- Referee: Perenzoni D. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 0.60 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (439/519) | 77% (248/324) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.65 | 0.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.93 | 0.41 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 44 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (439/519) | 77% (248/324) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 66% (42/64) | 42% (24/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 80% (156/195) | 59% (47/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (7/44) | 20% (2/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.92 | 0.18 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 23 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 63% (10/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 58 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 12 | 48 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.41 | 0.93 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.41 | -0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 18', Sgarbi F. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
- 25', Izzo A. 🟨,
- 45+3', Patierno C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Crisetig L. ↓, Giunti G. ↑,
- 46', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 46', Faedo C. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 49', Palmiero L. 🟨,
- 53', Pastina C. 🟨,
- 54', Villa L. 🟨,
- 64', Di Maggio L. 🟨,
- 66', Patierno C. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
- 79', Izzo A. ↓, Enrici P. ↑,
- 79', Sounas D. ↓, Insigne R. ↑,
- 82', Lasagna K. ↓, Varas K. ↑,
- 90+2', 1 - 0, Russo R. ⚽, Enrici P. (A),
Chances of winning
Avellino
41.4% | Draw
32.7% | Padova
25.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+2.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
Avellino - Padova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.27 ↑
(2.09) |
2.88 ↓
(3.23) |
3.57 ↑
(3.46) |
6.8%
(7.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Avellino - Padova?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Avellino will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Padova will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 58.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.4% – 82.2%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 6 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.25 - Padova (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Padova (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 6 - 85.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 0.
- Recent form of Avellino has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- In recent matches, Padova has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Avellino could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Avellino: Favilli A.
(Tendon Injury)
Izzo A.
(Muscle Injury)
Le Borgne A.
(Red Card)
Milani A.
(Inactive)
Pandolfi L.
(Inactive)
Tutino G.
(Red Card)
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Barreca A.
(Inactive)
Papu Gomez
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Padova: Capelli A.
(Injury)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Avellino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Avellino won against Padova?
Avellino has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Avellino?
Padova has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Avellino - Padova were as follows:
30.09.2025
Padova
-
Avellino
2:2
03.05.2025
Avellino
-
Padova
0:1
Latest results of Avellino
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
