Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 7
- Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 1.56 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (341/411) | 82% (339/415) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 1.56 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.46 | 2.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (341/411) | 82% (339/415) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (20/38) | 55% (38/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (88/128) | 70% (76/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/27) | 29% (7/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.87 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.48 | 2.46 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.48 | 0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 16', Nikolaou D. ↓, Kassama S. ↑,
- 28', Rao E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Burgio R. ↓, Dorval M. ↑,
- 46', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Moncini G. ↑,
- 50', 0 - 1, Bortolussi M. ⚽, Capelli A. (A),
- 56', Castrovilli G. 🟨,
- 64', Antonucci M. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
- 69', Capelli A. 🟥,
- 71', 1 - 1, Moncini G. (Pen),
- 73', Bortolussi M. ↓, Ghiglione P. ↑,
- 73', Crisetig L. ↓, Harder J. ↑,
- 77', Rao E. ↓, Pereiro G. ↑,
- 81', Fusi P. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 81', Barreca A. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
- 84', 2 - 1, Cerri L. ⚽,
- 85', Faedo C. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Bari
30.6% | Draw
33.1% | Padova
36.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bari's form might have worsened.Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+6.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bari, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
Bari - Padova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.85 ↑
(2.45) |
3.23 ↑
(3) |
2.77 ↓
(2.95) |
-7%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Bari - Padova?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Padova will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 3.
- Bari has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Padova has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Padova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Bari could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Bari: Vicari F.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Inactive)
Baselli D.
(Inactive)
Boi A.
(Inactive)
Papu Gomez
(Suspended)
Pastina C.
(Inactive)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bari won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.8:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Bari won against Padova?
Bari has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Bari?
Padova has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bari - Padova were as follows:
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Modena | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13:3 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Palermo | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9:3 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Venezia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:5 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Avellino | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Cesena | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:10 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Monza | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Carrarese | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11:7 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Juve Stabia | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8:8 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Sudtirol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:10 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Reggiana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:10 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Empoli | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Padova | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Catanzaro | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7:8 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Entella | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Bari | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Pescara | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 5 |
| 18 | Sampdoria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | Mantova | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:13 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Spezia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4:11 | -7 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
