Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 7
- Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 1.56 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (341/411) | 82% (339/415) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.04 | 1.56 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.46 | 2.48 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (341/411) | 82% (339/415) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (20/38) | 55% (38/69) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 69% (88/128) | 70% (76/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 15% (4/27) | 29% (7/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.87 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 64% (7/11) | 67% (6/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.48 | 2.46 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.48 | 0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 16', Nikolaou D. ↓, Kassama S. ↑,
- 28', Rao E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Burgio R. ↓, Dorval M. ↑,
- 46', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Moncini G. ↑,
- 50', 0 - 1, Bortolussi M. ⚽, Capelli A. (A),
- 56', Castrovilli G. 🟨,
- 64', Antonucci M. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
- 69', Capelli A. 🟥,
- 71', 1 - 1, Moncini G. (Pen),
- 73', Bortolussi M. ↓, Ghiglione P. ↑,
- 73', Crisetig L. ↓, Harder J. ↑,
- 77', Rao E. ↓, Pereiro G. ↑,
- 81', Fusi P. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
- 81', Barreca A. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
- 84', 2 - 1, Cerri L. ⚽,
- 85', Faedo C. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Bari
30.6% | Draw
33.1% | Padova
36.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Bari - Padova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.58 ↑
(2.45) |
3.2 ↑
(3) |
2.88 ↓
(2.95) |
-6%
(8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Bari - Padova?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Padova will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Bari (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Bari (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Bari (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 10).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 3.
- Bari has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Padova has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Padova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Bari could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Bari: Vicari F.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Inactive)
Baselli D.
(Inactive)
Boi A.
(Inactive)
Papu Gomez
(Suspended)
Pastina C.
(Inactive)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bari won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.8:0.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Bari won against Padova?
Bari has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Bari?
Padova has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Bari - Padova were as follows:
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 44:19 | 25 | 47 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 40:19 | 21 | 46 |
| 3 | Monza | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 34:18 | 16 | 44 |
| 4 | Palermo | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 33:14 | 19 | 41 |
| 5 | Modena | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 28:17 | 11 | 34 |
| 6 | Cesena | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 29:27 | 2 | 34 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 22 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 24:23 | 1 | 34 |
| 8 | Catanzaro | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 28:26 | 2 | 32 |
| 9 | Carrarese | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 31:32 | -1 | 29 |
| 10 | Sudtirol | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 24:23 | 1 | 28 |
| 11 | Empoli | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 26:28 | -2 | 28 |
| 12 | Avellino | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 27:35 | -8 | 28 |
| 13 | Padova | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 21:27 | -6 | 25 |
| 14 | Sampdoria | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 21:28 | -7 | 22 |
| 15 | Reggiana | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 25:32 | -7 | 21 |
| 16 | Entella | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 19:29 | -10 | 21 |
| 17 | Spezia | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19:29 | -10 | 20 |
| 18 | Mantova | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 22:36 | -14 | 20 |
| 19 | Bari | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 18:34 | -16 | 20 |
| 20 | Pescara | 22 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 27:44 | -17 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
