Result
3:0
25/01/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 21
- Referee: Allegretta C. G. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 Russia | Telekanal Futbol |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.24 | 1.05 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 48% | 52% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (267/388) | 74% (319/431) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.24 | 1.05 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.74 | 0.67 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 38 | 25 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (267/388) | 74% (319/431) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (20/74) | 38% (30/79) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (113/186) | 67% (73/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (5/22) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.72 | 0.84 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 91% (10/11) | 53% (8/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 67 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 46 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.67 | 3.74 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.74 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 26', Villa L. 🟨,
- 28', 1 - 0, Merkaj S. ⚽, Molina S. (A),
- 38', 2 - 0, Pecorino E. ⚽, El Kaouakibi H. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Villa L. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 60', Kofler R. 🟨,
- 61', Lasagna K. ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
- 61', Harder J. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
- 64', Zedadka K. 🟨,
- 65', Tait F. ↓, Frigerio M. R. ↑,
- 65', Zedadka K. ↓, Davi S. ↑,
- 76', Tronchin S. ↓, Crnigoj D. ↑,
- 76', Pecorino E. ↓, Odogwu R. ↑,
- 77', Barreca A. ↓, Baselli D. ↑,
- 86', Molina S. ↓, Davi F. ↑,
- 87', Frigerio M. R. 🟨,
- 87', Castori F. 🟨,
- 90+4', 3 - 0, Casiraghi D. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Südtirol-Alto Adige
47.9% | Draw
30.5% | Padova
21.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Südtirol-Alto Adige has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.97 ↓
(2.05) |
3.07 ↓
(3.13) |
4.32 ↑
(3.8) |
6.6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Südtirol will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Padova will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 32.6% – 78.6%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Südtirol (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 83.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DNB - Südtirol (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Südtirol (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Südtirol (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Südtirol won 0.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Padova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Südtirol will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Südtirol: Martini J.
(Injury)
Masiello A.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Barreca A.
(Inactive)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Südtirol won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 0.6:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Südtirol won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.5:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Südtirol-Alto Adige won against Padova?
Südtirol-Alto Adige has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Südtirol-Alto Adige?
Padova has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Südtirol-Alto Adige - Padova were as follows:
01.11.2025
Padova
-
Südtirol-Alto Adige
1:1
Latest results of Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
