Boca Juniors vs Independiente – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Argentinian Liga Profesional Boca Juniors - Independiente
Result
0:1
19/05/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Torneo Betano - Apertura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
  • Referee: Ramirez N. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaESPN Premium, TyC Sports
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
colombiaColombiaESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
hong-kongHong-kongHOY TV
israelIsraelSport 3
italyItalyComo TV, Sport Italia, Sportitalia, Sportitalia Plus
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
portugalPortugalSport TV1
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 1
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter
worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.550.67
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
813
Shots on target
15
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
76
Passes
77% (248/323)84% (333/396)
Yellow Cards
34
Expected Goals (xG)
0.550.67
xG on target (xGOT)
0.340.84
Total shots
813
Shots on target
15
Shots off target
44
Blocked Shots
34
Shots inside the Box
37
Shots outside the Box
56
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
76
Touches in opposition box
1612
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
23
Free Kicks
1114
Passes
77% (248/323)84% (333/396)
Long passes
48% (23/48)57% (29/51)
Passes in final third
57% (51/89)82% (97/118)
Crosses
19% (5/27)18% (4/22)
Expected assists (xA)
0.860.58
Throw-ins
2818
Fouls
1411
Tackles
63% (20/32)69% (9/13)
Duels won
6545
Clearances
2228
Interceptions
510
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
41
xGOT faced
0.840.34
Goals prevented
-0.160.33

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 46', Vera F. 🟨,
  • 48', Costa A. 🟨,
  • 57', Gimenez M. , Cavani E. ,
  • 57', Belmonte T. , Herrera A. ,
  • 61', Millan L. , Tarzia D. ,
  • 65', 0 - 1, Angulo A. ,
  • 68', Zenon K. 🟨,
  • 70', Zenon K. , Zeballos E. ,
  • 77', Vera F. , Galdames P. ,
  • 77', Cabral L. , Rodrigo Fernandez ,
  • 79', Carlos Palacios , Velasco A. ,
  • 79', Delgado M. , Alarcon Cepeda W. H. ,
  • 81', Battaglia R. 🟨,
  • 82', Montiel S. , Salle S. ,
  • 85', Gimenez M. 🟨,
  • 87', Galdames P. 🟨,
  • 88', Rey R. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Boca Juniors
39.6%
Draw
32.3%
Independiente
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.8% 31.2% 28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7% 30.5% 27.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
  • Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-0.8%)
  • Boca Juniors - Independiente Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.38
    (2.32)
    2.94
    (3.03)
    3.38
    (3.38)
    5.6%
    (5.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Boca Juniors - Independiente?
  • Users Predictions: Boca Juniors will win (22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 80.61%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Boca Juniors will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 1.
    • Boca Juniors is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Independiente has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Boca Juniors may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Boca Juniors will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 6 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:20. (average 1.4:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Boca Juniors won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:12. (average 1.9:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Boca Juniors - Independiente were as follows:
    14.12.2024 Boca Juniors - Independiente 0:0
    29.07.2023 Independiente - Boca Juniors 0:2
    07.01.2023 Boca Juniors - Independiente 0:0
    23.10.2022 Boca Juniors - Independiente 2:2
    Latest results of Boca Juniors
    10.05.2025 Boca Juniors - Lanús 1:0
    04.05.2025 Tigre - Boca Juniors 1:1
    27.04.2025 River Plate - Boca Juniors 2:1
    12.04.2025 Belgrano - Boca Juniors 1:3
    Latest results of Independiente
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Clausura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Union de Santa Fe1045115:8717
    2Defensa y Justicia1043311:9215
    3Barracas Central943211:9215
    4Tigre104339:7215
    5Estudiantes L.P950410:10015
    6Boca Juniors1035213:8514
    7Argentinos Jrs1042412:8414
    8Central Cordoba1035212:9314
    9Banfield104249:13-414
    10Belgrano93339:7212
    11Huracan93335:8-312
    12Racing Club931510:12-210
    13Ind. Rivadavia923410:12-29
    14Newells Old Boys92348:11-39
    15Aldosivi100371:14-133


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Dep. Riestra961212:5719
    2River Plate953116:7918
    3Velez Sarsfield953111:4718
    4San Lorenzo104428:6216
    5Lanus95139:8116
    6Rosario Central93609:4515
    7Atl. Tucuman933310:8212
    8Sarmiento Junin93338:10-212
    9Platense924310:13-310
    10San Martin S.J102448:11-310
    11Talleres Cordoba102445:9-410
    12Gimnasia L.P103166:12-610
    13Instituto92435:11-610
    14Godoy Cruz101548:13-58
    15Independiente80445:9-44

          Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)