Boca Juniors vs Independiente – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Argentinian Liga Profesional
Result
1:1
11/04/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 14
  • Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaHBO Max, TNT Sports
boliviaBoliviaESPN 5, ESPN
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
ecuadorEcuadorESPN 5, ESPN
israelIsraelSport 1, Sport 4
italyItalyComo TV, Sportitalia
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 3
mexicoMexicoDisney+
paraguayParaguayESPN 5, ESPN
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN 5
portugalPortugalSport TV2
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 3
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomPremier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN 5, Inter
worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
2.270.86
Ball possession
61%39%
Total shots
128
Shots on target
51
Big chances
41
Corner kicks
33
Passes
84% (462/549)69% (241/350)
Yellow cards
03
Expected goals (xG)
2.270.86
xG on target (xGOT)
1.110.78
Total shots
128
Shots on target
51
Shots off target
55
Blocked shots
22
Shots inside the box
95
Shots outside the box
33
Hit the woodwork
00
Big chances
41
Corner kicks
33
Touches in opposition box
2412
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
20
Free kicks
177
Passes
84% (462/549)69% (241/350)
Long passes
47% (27/57)36% (25/69)
Passes in final third
63% (71/113)61% (71/116)
Crosses
30% (7/23)20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.880.43
Throw ins
1620
Fouls
717
Tackles
89% (16/18)73% (8/11)
Duels won
5938
Clearances
2216
Interceptions
2710
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
04
xGOT faced
0.781.11
Goals prevented
-0.220.11

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 9', 0 - 1, Abaldo M. ⚽, Avalos G. (A),
  • 35', Abaldo M. 🟨,
  • 45+11', 1 - 1, Gimenez M. (Penalty Awarded),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Angel Romero ↓, Miguel Merentiel ↑,
  • 46', Gimenez M. ↓, Bareiro A. ↑,
  • 68', Herrera A. ↓, Zeballos E. ↑,
  • 69', Velasco A. ↓, Ascacibar S. ↑,
  • 74', Lomonaco K. ↓, Fedorco J. ↑,
  • 74', Rey Domenech C. ↓, Delgado M. ↑,
  • 76', Avalos G. 🟨,
  • 83', Gutierrez M. ↓, Valdez F. ↑,
  • 83', Perez Curci M. ↓, Rodrigo Fernandez ↑,
  • 83', Malcorra I. ↓, Freire N. ↑,
  • 90', Avalos G. ↓, Tempone F. ↑,
  • 90+3', Zabala F. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Boca Juniors
38.7%		Draw
33.1%		Independiente
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.9% 31.2% 25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8% 29.9% 24.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
  • Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+6.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boca Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
    •

    Boca Juniors - Independiente Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.48 ↑
    (2.15)    		 2.88 ↓
    (2.96)    		 3.28 ↓
    (3.57)    		 5.5%
    (8.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
    What is the prediction for Boca Juniors - Independiente?
  • Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Independiente will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 1.
    • Boca Juniors is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Independiente has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Boca Juniors may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Independiente has had a series of home games.
    • Boca Juniors could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Boca Juniors: Battaglia R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Carlos Palacios (Knee Injury) Cavani E. (Lower Back Injury) Marchesin A. (Injury) Paredes L. (Yellow Cards) Zeballos E. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There will not play in Independiente: Pussetto I. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Boca Juniors: Weigandt M. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Independiente: Valdez F. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 6 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Boca Juniors won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Boca Juniors - Independiente were as follows:
    19.05.2025 Boca Juniors - Independiente 0:1
    14.12.2024 Boca Juniors - Independiente 0:0
    29.07.2023 Independiente - Boca Juniors 0:2
    07.01.2023 Boca Juniors - Independiente 0:0
    23.10.2022 Boca Juniors - Independiente 2:2
    Latest results of Boca Juniors
    07.04.2026 Universidad Católica - Boca Juniors 1:2 ✺
    02.04.2026 Talleres de Córdoba - Boca Juniors 0:1 ✺
    22.03.2026 Boca Juniors - Instituto Córdoba 2:0 ✺
    15.03.2026 Unión Santa Fe - Boca Juniors 1:1 ✺
    11.03.2026 Boca Juniors - San Lorenzo 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Independiente
    04.04.2026 Independiente - Racing 1:0 ✺
    27.03.2026 Independiente - Atenas Río Cuarto 4:2 ✺
    21.03.2026 Independiente - Talleres de Córdoba 1:2 ✺
    16.03.2026 Instituto Córdoba - Independiente 2:1 ✺
    10.03.2026 Independiente - Unión Santa Fe 4:4 ✺
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Apertura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Boca Juniors ✔ 1686222:91330
    2Estudiantes L.P. ✔ 1584317:71028
    3Velez Sarsfield ✔ 1576217:11627
    4Talleres Cordoba ✔ 1675417:13426
    5Independiente1666424:20424
    6Lanus ✔ 1666418:15324
    7San Lorenzo1657414:14022
    8Union de Santa Fe1656524:20421
    9Defensa y Justicia1547417:19-219
    10Instituto1553715:17-218
    11Platense1537510:13-316
    12Gimnasia Mendoza1544712:21-916
    13Central Cordoba1644811:21-1016
    14Newells Old Boys1535714:26-1214
    15Dep. Riestra161875:12-711


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. Rivadavia ✔ 15103228:141433
    2River Plate ✔ 1592422:111129
    3Argentinos Jrs ✔ 1585217:11629
    4Rosario Central ✔ 1583419:15427
    5Belgrano1565413:13023
    6Gimnasia L.P1572617:19-223
    7Huracan1556417:13421
    8Barracas Central1656515:15021
    9Racing Club1555517:15220
    10Tigre1547417:14319
    11Sarmiento Junin1561813:16-319
    12Banfield1653817:19-218
    13Atl. Tucuman1525814:20-611
    14Aldosivi150785:18-137
    15Estudiantes Rio Cuarto1512125:22-175

          Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Boca Juniors is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Estudiantes L.P. is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Velez Sarsfield is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Talleres Cordoba is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Lanus is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Ind. Rivadavia is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    River Plate is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Argentinos Jrs is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Rosario Central is Qualified for Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)
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