Result
0:1
18/01/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 18
- Referee: Correia G. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | ZAP |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | SportKlub 6 |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 6 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 1.57 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 34% | 66% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (219/295) | 85% (492/581) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 1.57 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.55 | 1.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (219/295) | 85% (492/581) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (21/58) | 45% (21/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (63/95) | 74% (141/190) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/15) | 11% (2/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.61 | 0.75 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 72% (13/18) | 78% (7/9) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.55 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.22 | 1.55 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 10', Medina B. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 64', Grillitsch F. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
- 64', Victor P. ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
- 67', Lagerbielke G. 🟨,
- 73', Dorgeles M. ↓, Martinez G. ↑,
- 73', Lelo L. ↓, Gomez V. ↑,
- 81', Vitor Carvalho 🟨,
- 82', Lagerbielke G. 🟨,
- 86', Felix H. (Penalty Awarded),
- 87', Felix H. ↓, Ouattara M. ↑,
- 87', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
- 88', Vitor Carvalho ↓, Arrey-Mbi B. ↑,
- 90', Bebeto 🟨,
- 90+2', 0 - 1, Zalazar R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+3', Bebeto ↓, Siebatcheu J. ↑,
- 90+3', Sithole S. ↓, Rodrigues A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Tondela
14.9% | Draw
23.6% | Braga
61.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)Braga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Braga's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Braga than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Tondela - Braga Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.34 ↑
(4.98) |
4 ↑
(3.6) |
1.53 ↓
(1.68) |
6%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Tondela - Braga?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .
- BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Braga (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Braga will win
(26 of 28 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.32% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Braga will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Braga (votes: 13 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0.
- Tondela is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Braga has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Tondela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Braga has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Braga is the undeniable favorite.
- There will not play in Braga: El Ouazzani A.
(Foot Injury)
Vidigal S.
(Injury)
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 14 matches, and goals 11:34. (average 0.6:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.6:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Braga?
Tondela has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Braga won against Tondela?
Braga has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Braga were as follows:
10.08.2025
Braga
-
Tondela
3:0
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 44:7 | 37 | 62 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 59:12 | 47 | 58 |
| 3 | Benfica | 23 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 49:13 | 36 | 55 |
| 4 | Braga | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 48:22 | 26 | 42 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 34:21 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 35 |
| 7 | Estoril | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46:39 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 29:33 | -4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 27:34 | -7 | 31 |
| 10 | Alverca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 23:38 | -15 | 26 |
| 11 | Arouca | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 31:49 | -18 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 23 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 25:43 | -18 | 22 |
| 14 | Nacional | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 27:34 | -7 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 20 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18:29 | -11 | 18 |
| 17 | Tondela | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 17:36 | -19 | 18 |
| 18 | AFS | 23 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
