Result
1:1
28/02/2026 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 35
- Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.09 | 0.85 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 54% | 46% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 64% (195/307) | 63% (177/281) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.09 | 0.85 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.84 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 64% (195/307) | 63% (177/281) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (30/73) | 40% (36/89) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 45% (44/97) | 45% (48/107) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (8/30) | 17% (1/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 0.33 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 21 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (10/19) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 44 | 45 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.84 | 1.23 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.16 | 0.23 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 32', Balmer K. 🟨,
- 32', Clarke O. 🟨,
- 43', 0 - 1, Thompson-Sommers K. ⚽, Harrison E. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 58', 1 - 1, Palmer O. ⚽, Batty J. (A),
- 67', Harrison E. ↓, Cavegn F. ↑,
- 69', Hoilett J. ↓, Olakigbe M. ↑,
- 69', Wright W. ↓, Kirkman B. ↑,
- 69', Snowdon J. ↓, Holman F. ↑,
- 83', Senior J. 🟨,
- 88', Quigley J. 🟨,
- 89', Batty J. ↓, Bodin B. ↑,
- 90', Smallwood R. 🟨,
- 90+3', De Havilland R. ↓, Thomas L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Swindon Town
48.3% | Draw
26.6% | Bristol Rovers
25.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Bristol Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.95 ↑
(1.88) |
3.52 ↑
(3.51) |
3.72 ↓
(3.86) |
6.5%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Swindon (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Swindon Town will win
(12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 20).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 3.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Swindon might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 1.5:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.4:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Bristol Rovers?
Swindon Town has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bristol Rovers won against Swindon Town?
Bristol Rovers has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Swindon Town - Bristol Rovers were as follows:
13.12.2025
Bristol Rovers
-
Swindon Town
0:3
08.10.2024
Swindon Town
-
Bristol Rovers
4:0
18.10.2022
Bristol Rovers
-
Swindon Town
3:0
Latest results of Swindon Town
Latest results of Bristol Rovers
English League Two Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 58:35 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 49:27 | 22 | 64 |
| 3 | MK Dons | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 63:34 | 29 | 62 |
| 4 | Swindon | 35 | 19 | 5 | 11 | 57:41 | 16 | 62 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:33 | 19 | 61 |
| 6 | Crewe | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 52:41 | 11 | 56 |
| 7 | Salford | 33 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 46:43 | 3 | 55 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 52:44 | 8 | 53 |
| 9 | Barnet | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 44:37 | 7 | 53 |
| 10 | Walsall | 33 | 15 | 8 | 10 | 42:36 | 6 | 53 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 46:37 | 9 | 52 |
| 12 | Colchester | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 48:35 | 13 | 49 |
| 13 | Accrington | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 37:36 | 1 | 46 |
| 14 | Oldham | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 36:30 | 6 | 45 |
| 15 | Fleetwood | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 43:42 | 1 | 45 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 41:41 | 0 | 44 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 34:54 | -20 | 38 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 34:55 | -21 | 36 |
| 19 | Tranmere | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 46:59 | -13 | 35 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 33:57 | -24 | 31 |
| 21 | Crawley | 35 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 33:56 | -23 | 28 |
| 22 | Barrow | 33 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 33:51 | -18 | 27 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 35 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 25:52 | -27 | 27 |
| 24 | Newport | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 32:60 | -28 | 25 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
