Result
1:1
13/12/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 14
- Referee: Torres M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 0.83 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 33% | 67% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (180/251) | 84% (409/485) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 0.83 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.12 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 10 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (180/251) | 84% (409/485) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 34% (20/59) | 48% (30/62) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 53% (29/55) | 72% (114/159) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 67% (4/6) | 12% (4/34) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.59 | 0.81 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 75% (6/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 55 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.12 | 0.67 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.88 | -0.33 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 33', Fernandes J. 🟨,
- 37', Perez S. 🟨,
- 38', 0 - 1, Espigares A. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 53', 1 - 1, Nsona K. ⚽, Larrazabal G. (A),
- 65', Rocha Livramento D. ↓, Cassiano ↑,
- 65', Perez S. ↓, Brito R. ↑,
- 72', Nsona K. ↓, Morais T. ↑,
- 72', Oukili Y. ↓, Nhaga R. ↑,
- 72', Fernandes J. ↓, Toure T. ↑,
- 78', Murilo de Souza ↓, Bermejo ↑,
- 79', Varela G. ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
- 82', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
- 82', Caseres F. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
- 83', Larrazabal G. ↓, Goulart J. ↑,
- 90', Brito R. 🟨,
- 90', Peixoto C. 🟨,
- 90+3', Sousa D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Casa Pia
24% | Draw
31.3% | Gil Vicente
44.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)Gil Vicente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
Casa Pia - Gil Vicente Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.95 ↑
(3.82) |
3.02 ↓
(3.16) |
2.12 ↑
(2.09) |
5.6%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Casa Pia - Gil Vicente?
Users Predictions:
18 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 32.6% – 78.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Gil Vicente (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Gil Vicente (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 25%). Gil Vicente (votes: 3 - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1.
- Casa Pia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Gil Vicente's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Gil Vicente is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Mendes C.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Mohamed I.
(Inactive)
Svensson M.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Gil Vicente: Moreira A.
(Injury)
Pablo
(Inactive)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Gil Vicente?
Casa Pia has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gil Vicente won against Casa Pia?
Gil Vicente has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - Gil Vicente were as follows:
22.02.2025
Casa Pia
-
Gil Vicente
1:0
22.09.2024
Gil Vicente
-
Casa Pia
1:1
03.03.2024
Casa Pia
-
Gil Vicente
0:0
02.10.2023
Gil Vicente
-
Casa Pia
2:0
27.05.2023
Gil Vicente
-
Casa Pia
1:0
Latest results of Casa Pia
Latest results of Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
