Result
3:1
04/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 17
- Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.38 | 1.83 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (273/342) | 78% (254/326) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.38 | 1.83 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 1.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 14 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 23 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (273/342) | 78% (254/326) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (22/49) | 50% (26/52) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (56/92) | 66% (58/88) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 6% (1/18) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 1.48 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 23 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (9/12) | 67% (14/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.51 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.52 | -1.49 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (3 - 1)
- 54', 1 - 0, Andre Luiz ⚽, Clayton (A),
- 62', Conte A. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
- 62', Brito R. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
- 62', 2 - 0, Aguilera Zamora B. ⚽,
- 69', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
- 70', Oukili Y. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
- 71', Larrazabal G. ↓, Nsona K. ↑,
- 74', Spikic D. ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
- 83', 2 - 1, Mendes C. ⚽, Miguel Sousa (A),
- 86', 3 - 1, Andre Luiz ⚽, Clayton (A),
- 88', Andre Luiz ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
- 88', Petrasso F. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
- 90', Geraldes A. 🟨,
- 90+2', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Graca J. ↑,
- 90+2', Clayton ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Rio Ave
38.5% | Draw
30.3% | Casa Pia
31.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
Rio Ave - Casa Pia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.45 ↑
(2.34) |
3.09 ↓
(3.29) |
3.06 ↓
(3.07) |
5.9%
(5.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Rio Ave - Casa Pia?
Users Predictions:
24 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 6 - 25%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.6% – 78%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Casa Pia (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Rio Ave may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T.
(Knee Injury)
Richards O.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Kaique Rocha
(Injury)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
Svensson M.
(Inactive)
Tchamba D.
(Injury)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.2:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Casa Pia?
Rio Ave has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Rio Ave?
Casa Pia has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Rio Ave - Casa Pia were as follows:
29.03.2025
Casa Pia
-
Rio Ave
2:1
12.01.2025
Casa Pia
-
Rio Ave
1:3
02.11.2024
Rio Ave
-
Casa Pia
2:2
11.02.2024
Rio Ave
-
Casa Pia
1:0
02.09.2023
Casa Pia
-
Rio Ave
1:1
Latest results of Rio Ave
Latest results of Casa Pia
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 26 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 52:10 | 42 | 69 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 64:14 | 50 | 62 |
| 3 | Benfica | 26 | 18 | 8 | 0 | 55:17 | 38 | 62 |
| 4 | Braga | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 52:25 | 27 | 46 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 39:27 | 12 | 42 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 32:22 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 47:42 | 5 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 31:38 | -7 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 29:39 | -10 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 26:41 | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 26:45 | -19 | 27 |
| 12 | Arouca | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 33:55 | -22 | 26 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 23:31 | -8 | 25 |
| 14 | Estrela | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 29:45 | -16 | 25 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 29:38 | -9 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 25 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 26 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
