Rio Ave vs Casa Pia – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

04/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Estádio do Rio Ave (Vila do Conde).

Liga Portugal - Round 17
Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)
Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.38	1.83
Ball Possession
51%	49%
Total shots
12	15
Shots on target
8	5
Big Chances
4	4
Corner Kicks
9	4
Passes
80% (273/342)	78% (254/326)
Yellow Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.38	1.83
xG on target (xGOT)
1.51	1.52
Total shots
12	15
Shots on target
8	5
Shots off target
2	6
Blocked Shots
2	4
Shots inside the Box
6	12
Shots outside the Box
6	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
4	4
Corner Kicks
9	4
Touches in opposition box
14	22
Accurate through passes
2	1
Offsides
3	2
Free Kicks
23	10
Passes
80% (273/342)	78% (254/326)
Long passes
45% (22/49)	50% (26/52)
Passes in final third
61% (56/92)	66% (58/88)
Crosses
6% (1/18)	29% (4/14)
Expected assists (xA)
1.37	1.48
Throw-ins
25	15
Fouls
10	23
Tackles
75% (9/12)	67% (14/21)
Duels won
49	52
Clearances
19	29
Interceptions
11	4
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
3	3
xGOT faced
1.52	1.51
Goals prevented
0.52	-1.49

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (3 - 1)
54', 1 - 0, Andre Luiz ⚽, Clayton (A),
62', Conte A. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
62', Brito R. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Aguilera Zamora B. ⚽,
69', Cassiano ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
70', Oukili Y. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
71', Larrazabal G. ↓, Nsona K. ↑,
74', Spikic D. ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Mendes C. ⚽, Miguel Sousa (A),
86', 3 - 1, Andre Luiz ⚽, Clayton (A),
88', Andre Luiz ↓, Nikitscher T. ↑,
88', Petrasso F. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
90', Geraldes A. 🟨,
90+2', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Graca J. ↑,
90+2', Clayton ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Rio Ave
38.5%

Draw
30.3%

Casa Pia
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.8%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

28.5%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Rio Ave - Casa Pia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.34)	3.09 ↓ (3.29)	3.06 ↓ (3.07)	5.9% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Rio Ave - Casa Pia?

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Rio Ave will win (votes: 6 - 25%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.6% – 78%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -0.25 - Casa Pia (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 8 high ROI users predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 15).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 2.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Rio Ave may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Rio Ave: Bakoulas T. (Knee Injury) Richards O. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Casa Pia: Kaique Rocha (Injury) Kiki (Knee Injury) Svensson M. (Inactive) Tchamba D. (Injury)
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Rio Ave won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.2:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Rio Ave won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Casa Pia?

Rio Ave has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Rio Ave?

Casa Pia has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Rio Ave - Casa Pia were as follows:

29.03.2025 Casa Pia - Rio Ave 2:1

12.01.2025 Casa Pia - Rio Ave 1:3

02.11.2024 Rio Ave - Casa Pia 2:2

11.02.2024 Rio Ave - Casa Pia 1:0

02.09.2023 Casa Pia - Rio Ave 1:1

Latest results of Rio Ave

28.12.2025 Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave 4:0 ✺

20.12.2025 Gil Vicente - Rio Ave 2:2 ✺

13.12.2025 Rio Ave - Vitoria Guimarães 0:1 ✺

06.12.2025 AVS - Rio Ave 1:2 ✺

30.11.2025 Rio Ave - Santa Clara 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Casa Pia

28.12.2025 Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães 0:0 ✺

21.12.2025 Tondela - Casa Pia 1:2 ✺

17.12.2025 Casa Pia - Torreense 1:2 ✺

13.12.2025 Casa Pia - Gil Vicente 1:1 ✺

06.12.2025 Santa Clara - Casa Pia 1:0 ✺

Liga Portugal Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	23	20	2	1	44:7	37	62
2	Sporting CP	23	18	4	1	59:12	47	58
3	Benfica	23	16	7	0	49:13	36	55
4	Braga	23	12	6	5	48:22	26	42
5	Gil Vicente	23	11	7	5	34:21	13	40
6	Famalicao	23	10	5	8	29:21	8	35
7	Estoril	23	9	6	8	46:39	7	33
8	Moreirense	23	10	3	10	29:33	-4	33
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	23	9	4	10	27:34	-7	31
10	Alverca	23	7	5	11	23:38	-15	26
11	Arouca	23	7	5	11	31:49	-18	26
12	Estrela	23	5	8	10	26:41	-15	23
13	Casa Pia	23	5	7	11	25:43	-18	22
14	Nacional	23	5	6	12	27:34	-7	21
15	Rio Ave	23	4	8	11	23:44	-21	20
16	Santa Clara	23	4	6	13	18:29	-11	18
17	Tondela	23	4	6	13	17:36	-19	18
18	AFS	23	1	5	17	18:57	-39	8

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
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      Liga Portugal (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2