Result
3:3
04/03/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 28
- Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 1.96 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (352/424) | 88% (460/524) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 1.96 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.90 | 1.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 30 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 21 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (352/424) | 88% (460/524) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 60% (30/50) | 48% (24/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (101/143) | 71% (77/109) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (6/18) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.27 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 21 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 52 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 19 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 7 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.90 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.78 | -0.10 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 4', 1 - 0, Melegoni F. ⚽, Zuelli E. (A),
- 7', 1 - 1, Illanes J. (Own goal),
- 20', Petriccione J. 🟨,
- 39', 1 - 2, Cassandro T. ⚽, Iemmello P. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', D'Alessandro M. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
- 46', Petriccione J. ↓, Pontisso S. ↑,
- 46', Rouhi J. ↓, Belloni N. ↑,
- 50', Liberali M. 🟨,
- 55', Liberali M. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
- 56', Nuamah P. ↓, Pittarello F. ↑,
- 64', 2 - 2, Abiuso F. ⚽, Melegoni F. (A),
- 69', Rubino T. ↓, Di Stefano F. ↑,
- 76', 3 - 2, Rispoli F. (Own goal),
- 79', Verrengia B. ↓, Alesi G. ↑,
- 83', Abiuso F. 🟨,
- 83', Abiuso F. ↓, Finotto M. ↑,
- 83', Melegoni F. ↓, Parlanti G. ↑,
- 90', Pontisso S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+1', Rispoli F. 🟨,
- 90+4', 3 - 3, Pittarello F. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Carrarese
39.3% | Draw
30.2% | Catanzaro
30.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carrarese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Catanzaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)The ML Model estimate for Carrarese aligns with the current prediction.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Carrarese - Catanzaro Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.4 ↑
(2.39) |
3.12 ↓
(3.18) |
3.06 ↑
(2.9) |
6.5%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Carrarese - Catanzaro?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Carrarese will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). Catanzaro will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carrarese: 13.8% – 61.2%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Carrarese (votes: 1 - 25%). Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 1.
- Carrarese is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Catanzaro is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Carrarese: Accornero F.
(Inactive)
Bouah D.
(Inactive)
Salamon B.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A.
(Injury)
Oudin R.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Carrarese: Schiavi N.
(Injury)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Carrarese won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:10. (average 1.5:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Carrarese won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Carrarese won against Catanzaro?
Carrarese has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Catanzaro won against Carrarese?
Catanzaro has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Carrarese - Catanzaro were as follows:
13.09.2025
Catanzaro
-
Carrarese
1:1
12.04.2025
Carrarese
-
Catanzaro
2:2
01.09.2024
Catanzaro
-
Carrarese
3:1
Latest results of Carrarese
Latest results of Catanzaro
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 73:29 | 44 | 78 |
| 2 | Monza | 36 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 57:27 | 30 | 75 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 36 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 70:34 | 36 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 36 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 58:29 | 29 | 69 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 36 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 58:45 | 13 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 36 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 47:34 | 13 | 52 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia | 36 | 11 | 17 | 8 | 43:43 | 0 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 42:54 | -12 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 45 |
| 10 | Carrarese | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 43 |
| 11 | Mantova | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 42:50 | -8 | 43 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 34:47 | -13 | 41 |
| 13 | Sudtirol | 36 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 37:46 | -9 | 40 |
| 14 | Padova | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 34:46 | -12 | 40 |
| 15 | Entella | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 34:48 | -14 | 39 |
| 16 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 37 |
| 17 | Pescara | 36 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 50:64 | -14 | 34 |
| 18 | Bari | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 33:58 | -25 | 34 |
| 19 | Reggiana | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34:54 | -20 | 34 |
| 20 | Spezia | 36 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 40:56 | -16 | 33 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
