Cerro Largo vs Danubio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Sudamericana Cerro Largo - Danubio
Result
3:2 penalties
06/03/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Qualification - Final
  • Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 2
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
italyItalyComo TV
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South, ESPN South
spainSpainbeIN Sports
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
worldWorldDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.091.37
Ball Possession
46%54%
Goal Attempts
1613
Shots on Goal
56
Shots off Goal
56
Blocked Shots
61
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
96
Shots inside the Box
87
Shots outside the Box
86
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
20
Goalkeeper Saves
43
Free Kicks
139
Offsides
00
Fouls
913
Yellow Cards
14
Red Cards
01
Throw-ins
1937
Touches in the Opposition Box
2315
Passes
68% (129/191)61% (142/233)
Passes in the final third
63% (55/88)58% (52/89)
Crosses
27% (6/22)26% (5/19)
Tackles
65% (11/17)68% (13/19)
Clearances Total
4734
Interceptions
86

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 20', 1 - 0, Affonso M. , Hernandez B. (A),
  • 39', Sanseviero L. 🟨,
  • 45', Sosa L. 🟨,
  • 45', Brasil M. 🟨,
  • 45+6', 2 - 0, Affonso M. , Medina F. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 46', Fernandez J. , Nunez S. ,
  • 46', Pintos I. , Cardozo E. ,
  • 49', 2 - 1, Cardozo E. , Nunez S. (A),
  • 59', Affonso M. , Otormin L. ,
  • 60', Rossi F. , Peraza F. ,
  • 60', Rabino R. , Femia E. ,
  • 63', Cardozo E. , Peralta M. ,
  • 66', Medina F. , Anasco M. ,
  • 67', Hernandez B. , Contrera J. ,
  • 67', Medina F. 🟨,
  • 71', Sosa L. , Millan J. ,
  • 86', 2 - 2, Fernandez S. (Pen),
  • 89', Brasil M. , Di Pippa A. ,
  • 90+2', Arguello M. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Romero S. 🟨,
  • 90+9', Velazquez E. 🟥,
  • Penalties (4 - 3)
  • 1, Fernandez S. (Pen),
  • 1, Bertocchi N. (Pen),
  • 2, Millan J. (Pen),
  • 2, Otormin L. (Pen),
  • 3, Romero S. (Pen),
  • 3, Di Pippa A. (Pen),
  • 4, Femia E. (Pen),
  • 4, Contrera J. (Pen),
  • 5, Peralta M. (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cerro Largo
34.6%
Draw
33.4%
Danubio
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.5% 30.9% 36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8% 31.6% 37.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Danubio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Cerro Largo - Danubio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.72
    (2.88)
    2.81
    (3.03)
    2.95
    (2.56)
    6.2%
    (6.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

  • Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fubo (for US customers)
  • Network on : beIN SPORTS
  • What is the prediction for Cerro Largo - Danubio?
  • Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Danubio will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7%80.1%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Cerro Largo won 0.
    • Two teams are playing changeable.
    • Recently Cerro Largo have a series of home games.
    • The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
    • Last 18 head-to-head matches Cerro Largo won 6 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17:13 (average 0.9:0.7).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Cerro Largo won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 1:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cerro Largo - Danubio were as follows:
    15.02.2025 Danubio - Cerro Largo 0:0
    20.10.2024 Cerro Largo - Danubio 0:0
    09.06.2024 Cerro Largo - Danubio 2:2
    20.04.2024 Danubio - Cerro Largo 1:1
    02.09.2023 Danubio - Cerro Largo 2:0
    Latest results of Cerro Largo
    Latest results of Danubio
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1Alianza LimaGremio1 : 1, 2 : 0
    2ByeU. Catolica
    3U. De ChileGuarani1 : 2, 5 : 0
    4ByeIndependiente
    5Central CordobaCerro Largo3 : 0, 0 : 0
    6ByeLanus
    7BahiaAmerica De Cali0 : 2, 0 : 0
    8ByeFluminense
    9BolivarPalestino3 : 0, 3 : 0
    10ByeCienciano
    11BucaramangaAtletico-MG1 : 1, 0 : 1
    12ByeGodoy Cruz
    13Ind. del ValleVasco1 : 1, 4 : 0
    14ByeMushuc Runa
    15SA Bulo BuloOnce Caldas0 : 4, 0 : 3
    16ByeHuracan

    1/8-finals
    1Alianza LimaU. Catolica
    2U. De ChileIndependiente
    3Central CordobaLanus
    4America De CaliFluminense
    5BolivarCienciano
    6Atletico-MGGodoy Cruz
    7Ind. del ValleMushuc Runa
    8Once CaldasHuracan

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2