Cerro Largo vs Danubio: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Copa Sudamericana
Soccer Copa Sudamericana Cerro Largo - Danubio
Result
3:2 penalties
06/03/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Qualification - Final
  • Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)
Cerro Largo - Danubio - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.091.37
Ball Possession
46%54%
Goal Attempts
1613
Shots on Goal
56
Shots off Goal
56
Blocked Shots
61
Big Chances
21
Corner Kicks
96
Shots inside the Box
87
Shots outside the Box
86
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
20
Goalkeeper Saves
43
Free Kicks
139
Offsides
00
Fouls
913
Yellow Cards
14
Red Cards
01
Throw-ins
1937
Touches in the Opposition Box
2315
Passes
68% (129/191)61% (142/233)
Passes in the final third
63% (55/88)58% (52/89)
Crosses
27% (6/22)26% (5/19)
Tackles
65% (11/17)68% (13/19)
Clearances Total
4734
Interceptions
86

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 20', 1 - 0, Affonso M. ⚽, Hernandez B. (A),
  • 39', Sanseviero L. 🟨,
  • 45', Sosa L. 🟨,
  • 45', Brasil M. 🟨,
  • 45+6', 2 - 0, Affonso M. ⚽, Medina F. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 2)
  • 46', Fernandez J. ↓, Nunez S. ↑,
  • 46', Pintos I. ↓, Cardozo E. ↑,
  • 49', 2 - 1, Cardozo E. ⚽, Nunez S. (A),
  • 59', Affonso M. ↓, Otormin L. ↑,
  • 60', Rossi F. ↓, Peraza F. ↑,
  • 60', Rabino R. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
  • 63', Cardozo E. ↓, Peralta M. ↑,
  • 66', Medina F. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,
  • 67', Hernandez B. ↓, Contrera J. ↑,
  • 67', Medina F. 🟨,
  • 71', Sosa L. ↓, Millan J. ↑,
  • 86', 2 - 2, Fernandez S. (Pen),
  • 89', Brasil M. ↓, Di Pippa A. ↑,
  • 90+2', Arguello M. 🟨,
  • 90+4', Romero S. 🟨,
  • 90+9', Velazquez E. 🟥,
  • Penalties (4 - 3)
  • 1, Fernandez S. (Pen),
  • 1, Bertocchi N. (Pen),
  • 2, Millan J. (Pen),
  • 2, Otormin L. (Pen),
  • 3, Romero S. (Pen),
  • 3, Di Pippa A. (Pen),
  • 4, Femia E. (Pen),
  • 4, Contrera J. (Pen),
  • 5, Peralta M. (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cerro Largo
34.6%		Draw
33.4%		Danubio
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.5% 30.9% 36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8% 31.6% 37.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)
  • Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Danubio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Cerro Largo - Danubio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.72 ↓
    (2.88)    		 2.81 ↓
    (3.03)    		 2.95 ↑
    (2.56)    		 6.2%
    (6.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

  • Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fubo (for US customers)
  • Network on : beIN SPORTS
    •
    What is the prediction for Cerro Largo - Danubio?
  • Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Danubio will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7% – 80.1%.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Cerro Largo won 0.
    • Two teams are playing changeable.
    • Recently Cerro Largo have a series of home games.
    • The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
    • Last 18 head-to-head matches Cerro Largo won 6 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17:13 (average 0.9:0.7).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Cerro Largo won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 1:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cerro Largo - Danubio were as follows:
    15.02.2025 Danubio - Cerro Largo 0:0
    20.10.2024 Cerro Largo - Danubio 0:0
    09.06.2024 Cerro Largo - Danubio 2:2
    20.04.2024 Danubio - Cerro Largo 1:1
    02.09.2023 Danubio - Cerro Largo 2:0
    Latest results of Cerro Largo
    22.02.2025 Cerro Largo - Miramar Misiones 3:2 ✺
    15.02.2025 Danubio - Cerro Largo 0:0 ✺
    07.02.2025 Cerro Largo - Progreso 4:1 ✺
    31.01.2025 Cerro Largo - Juventud de Las Piedras 1:1 ✺
    18.01.2025 Cerro Largo - Gimnasia La Plata 0:1
    Latest results of Danubio
    23.02.2025 Danubio - Progreso 1:1
    15.02.2025 Danubio - Cerro Largo 0:0 ✺
    09.02.2025 Juventud de Las Piedras - Danubio 2:2 ✺
    01.02.2025 Danubio - Liverpool Montevideo 1:1
    12.01.2025 Huracán Buenos Aires - Danubio 2:0 ✺
    Copa Sudamericana Table
    Group Stage

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Independiente640216:61012
    2Guarani62229:12-38
    3Boston River621312:14-27
    4Nacional Potosi62138:13-57


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1U. Catolica642012:5714
    2Cerro Largo62135:8-37
    3Vitoria61323:4-16
    4Defensa y Justicia60424:7-34


    Group C
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Huracan642011:2914
    2America De Cali61506:428
    3Corinthians62225:508
    4Racing Montevideo60153:14-111


    Group D
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Godoy Cruz633010:5512
    2Gremio63308:4412
    3Grau60425:9-44
    4Sp. Luqueno60244:9-52


    Group E
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Mushuc Runa651012:4816
    2Palestino63039:909
    3Cruzeiro61235:7-25
    4Union de Santa Fe61142:8-64


    Group F
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Fluminense641111:2913
    2Once Caldas64028:6212
    3U. Espanola61236:7-15
    4GV San Jose61145:15-104


    Group G
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Lanus63309:4512
    2Vasco62228:808
    3FBC Melgar62135:10-57
    4Puerto Cabello61238:805


    Group H
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cienciano624012:6610
    2Atletico-MG623111:659
    3Caracas62229:11-28
    4Deportes Iquique61147:16-94

          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Which TV channels are streaming of Cerro Largo - Danubio?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN 2
    australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
    brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video
    canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports
    chileChileDisney+
    colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN 2
    italyItalyComo TV
    peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
    south-americaSouth-americaESPN 2 South, ESPN South
    spainSpainbeIN Sports
    uruguayUruguayDisney+
    usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
    venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
    worldWorldDisney+
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