Result
3:2 penalties
06/03/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Qualification - Final
- Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Australia | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 South-america | ESPN 2 South, ESPN South |
 Spain | beIN Sports |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
 World | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.09 | 1.37 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Goal Attempts |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off Goal |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 37 |
| Touches in the Opposition Box |
|---|
| 23 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (129/191) | 61% (142/233) |
| Passes in the final third |
|---|
| 63% (55/88) | 58% (52/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (6/22) | 26% (5/19) |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (11/17) | 68% (13/19) |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 47 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 20', 1 - 0, Affonso M. ⚽, Hernandez B. (A),
- 39', Sanseviero L. 🟨,
- 45', Sosa L. 🟨,
- 45', Brasil M. 🟨,
- 45+6', 2 - 0, Affonso M. ⚽, Medina F. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Fernandez J. ↓, Nunez S. ↑,
- 46', Pintos I. ↓, Cardozo E. ↑,
- 49', 2 - 1, Cardozo E. ⚽, Nunez S. (A),
- 59', Affonso M. ↓, Otormin L. ↑,
- 60', Rossi F. ↓, Peraza F. ↑,
- 60', Rabino R. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
- 63', Cardozo E. ↓, Peralta M. ↑,
- 66', Medina F. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,
- 67', Hernandez B. ↓, Contrera J. ↑,
- 67', Medina F. 🟨,
- 71', Sosa L. ↓, Millan J. ↑,
- 86', 2 - 2, Fernandez S. (Pen),
- 89', Brasil M. ↓, Di Pippa A. ↑,
- 90+2', Arguello M. 🟨,
- 90+4', Romero S. 🟨,
- 90+9', Velazquez E. 🟥,
- Penalties (4 - 3)
- 1, Fernandez S. (Pen),
- 1, Bertocchi N. (Pen),
- 2, Millan J. (Pen),
- 2, Otormin L. (Pen),
- 3, Romero S. (Pen),
- 3, Di Pippa A. (Pen),
- 4, Femia E. (Pen),
- 4, Contrera J. (Pen),
- 5, Peralta M. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Cerro Largo
34.6% | Draw
33.4% | Danubio
32% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Danubio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Cerro Largo - Danubio Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.72 ↓
(2.88) |
2.81 ↓
(3.03) |
2.95 ↑
(2.56) |
6.2%
(6.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fubo (for US customers) Network on : beIN SPORTS
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo - Danubio?
Users Predictions:
19 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Danubio will win (votes: 5 - 26.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7% – 80.1%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Cerro Largo won 0.
- Two teams are playing changeable.
- Recently Cerro Largo have a series of home games.
- The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
- Last 18 head-to-head matches Cerro Largo won 6 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17:13 (average 0.9:0.7).
- Including matches at home between the teams Cerro Largo won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 1:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Cerro Largo won against Danubio?
Cerro Largo has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Danubio won against Cerro Largo?
Danubio has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cerro Largo - Danubio were as follows:
15.02.2025
Danubio
-
Cerro Largo
0:0
20.10.2024
Cerro Largo
-
Danubio
0:0
09.06.2024
Cerro Largo
-
Danubio
2:2
20.04.2024
Danubio
-
Cerro Largo
1:1
02.09.2023
Danubio
-
Cerro Largo
2:0
Latest results of Cerro Largo
Latest results of Danubio
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | Gremio | 1 : 1, 2 : 0 |
| 2 | Bye | U. Catolica | |
| 3 | U. De Chile | Guarani | 1 : 2, 5 : 0 |
| 4 | Bye | Independiente | |
| 5 | Central Cordoba | Cerro Largo | 3 : 0, 0 : 0 |
| 6 | Bye | Lanus | |
| 7 | Bahia | America De Cali | 0 : 2, 0 : 0 |
| 8 | Bye | Fluminense | |
| 9 | Bolivar | Palestino | 3 : 0, 3 : 0 |
| 10 | Bye | Cienciano | |
| 11 | Bucaramanga | Atletico-MG | 1 : 1, 0 : 1 |
| 12 | Bye | Godoy Cruz | |
| 13 | Ind. del Valle | Vasco | 1 : 1, 4 : 0 |
| 14 | Bye | Mushuc Runa | |
| 15 | SA Bulo Bulo | Once Caldas | 0 : 4, 0 : 3 |
| 16 | Bye | Huracan | |
1/8-finals| 1 | Alianza Lima | U. Catolica | |
| 2 | U. De Chile | Independiente | |
| 3 | Central Cordoba | Lanus | |
| 4 | America De Cali | Fluminense | |
| 5 | Bolivar | Cienciano | |
| 6 | Atletico-MG | Godoy Cruz | |
| 7 | Ind. del Valle | Mushuc Runa | |
| 8 | Once Caldas | Huracan | |
Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinal
