Almería vs Ceuta – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

01/02/2026 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

UD Almería Stadium (Almería).

LaLiga2 - Round 24
Referee: Ojaos A. (Esp)
Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
2.94	2.14
Ball possession
50%	50%
Total shots
16	16
Shots on target
9	4
Big chances
6	2
Corner kicks
5	2
Passes
76% (272/357)	82% (289/353)
Yellow cards
2	3
Expected goals (xG)
2.94	2.14
xG on target (xGOT)
3.44	1.41
Total shots
16	16
Shots on target
9	4
Shots off target
4	8
Blocked shots
3	4
Shots inside the box
11	11
Shots outside the box
5	5
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Big chances
6	2
Corner kicks
5	2
Touches in opposition box
25	24
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
4	2
Free kicks
14	21
Passes
76% (272/357)	82% (289/353)
Long passes
45% (23/51)	42% (19/45)
Passes in final third
63% (83/131)	71% (55/78)
Crosses
29% (5/17)	27% (4/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.34	0.49
Throw ins
24	24
Fouls
21	14
Tackles
65% (13/20)	73% (8/11)
Duels won
51	47
Clearances
21	21
Interceptions
5	13
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper saves
2	5
xGOT faced
1.41	3.44
Goals prevented
-0.59	-0.56

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (3 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Arribas S. (Penalty Awarded),
23', 2 - 0, Leo Baptistao ⚽, Arribas S. (A),
36', 3 - 0, Morcillo J. ⚽,
45+2', 3 - 1, Zalazar K. ⚽,
45+5', Sanchez S. 🟨,
45+6', de la Fuente M. 🟨,
45+6', Campana J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Youness ↓, Ahmed A. ↑,
46', Campana J. ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
46', Sanchez S. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
57', Leo Baptistao ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
66', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
66', Horta A. ↓, Gui Guedes ↑,
66', Luna M. ↓, Chirino D. ↑,
71', de la Fuente K. ↓, Kone K. ↑,
74', Morcillo J. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
79', 3 - 2, Fernandez Sanchez M. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Dzodic S. 🟨,
84', Matos Jose 🟨,
85', 4 - 2, Embarba A. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Zalazar K. ↓, Illescas M. ↑,

Chances of winning

Almería
53.4%

Draw
25.2%

Ceuta
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

24.1%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

23.3%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Almería - Ceuta Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.62)	3.74 ↓ (3.89)	4.39 ↓ (5.18)	6.1% (6.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Almería - Ceuta?

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Almería will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 and 10)
Recent form of Almería has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Ceuta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
In this match, Almería is considered a favorite.
There will not play in Almería: Chumi (Knock) Fidel Cedillo Segura P. (Injury) Lopy D. (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Ceuta: Jamelli (Injury) Ortuno J. (Injury) Sanchez M. (Injury)
In the last 1 head-to-head match, Almería won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

How many head-to-head matches has Almería won against Ceuta?

Almería has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ceuta won against Almería?

Ceuta has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Almería - Ceuta were as follows:

26.11.2025 Ceuta - Almería 3:2

Latest results of Almería

25.01.2026 Eibar - Almería 1:0 ✺

17.01.2026 Almería - Deportivo La Coruña 1:2 ✺

10.01.2026 Mirandés - Almería 2:2 ✺

03.01.2026 Almería - Granada 3:2 ✺

21.12.2025 Málaga - Almería 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Ceuta

26.01.2026 Ceuta - Leonesa 3:1 ✺

17.01.2026 Ceuta - Valladolid 0:3 ✺

11.01.2026 Málaga - Ceuta 2:1 ✺

04.01.2026 Ceuta - FC Andorra 2:1 ✺

21.12.2025 Real Sociedad B - Ceuta 1:3 ✺

Spanish LaLiga2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Racing Santander	28	16	5	7	56:36	20	53
2	Castellon	28	14	7	7	46:29	17	49
3	Almeria	28	14	7	7	53:40	13	49
4	Dep. La Coruna	28	14	7	7	44:31	13	49
5	Malaga	28	14	5	9	41:31	10	47
6	Las Palmas	28	11	12	5	34:22	12	45
7	Ceuta	28	13	5	10	36:39	-3	44
8	Burgos CF	28	12	7	9	30:26	4	43
9	Gijon	28	12	6	10	38:36	2	42
10	Cordoba	28	11	8	9	38:37	1	41
11	Eibar	28	10	8	10	31:30	1	38
12	Andorra	28	9	8	11	35:40	-5	35
13	Albacete	28	9	8	11	33:39	-6	35
14	Cadiz CF	28	9	8	11	29:35	-6	35
15	Leganes	28	8	10	10	29:28	1	34
16	Real Sociedad B	28	9	7	12	38:39	-1	34
17	Granada CF	28	7	11	10	32:33	-1	32
18	Valladolid	28	8	8	12	29:38	-9	32
19	Huesca	28	8	6	14	26:37	-11	30
20	Cultural Leonesa	28	7	6	15	27:44	-17	27
21	Mirandes	28	6	6	16	28:45	-17	24
22	Zaragoza	28	5	9	14	23:41	-18	24

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