Result
4:2
01/02/2026 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- LaLiga2 - Round 24
- Referee: Ojaos A. (Esp)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Izzi TV, Sky Sport |
 North-central-america | Sky Sports Norte |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Spain | DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.94 | 2.14 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (272/357) | 82% (289/353) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.94 | 2.14 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.44 | 1.41 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 21 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (272/357) | 82% (289/353) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (23/51) | 42% (19/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (83/131) | 71% (55/78) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (5/17) | 27% (4/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.49 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 24 | 24 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 21 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 65% (13/20) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.41 | 3.44 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.59 | -0.56 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 17', 1 - 0, Arribas S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 23', 2 - 0, Leo Baptistao ⚽, Arribas S. (A),
- 36', 3 - 0, Morcillo J. ⚽,
- 45+2', 3 - 1, Zalazar K. ⚽,
- 45+5', Sanchez S. 🟨,
- 45+6', de la Fuente M. 🟨,
- 45+6', Campana J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Youness ↓, Ahmed A. ↑,
- 46', Campana J. ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
- 46', Sanchez S. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
- 57', Leo Baptistao ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
- 66', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
- 66', Horta A. ↓, Gui Guedes ↑,
- 66', Luna M. ↓, Chirino D. ↑,
- 71', de la Fuente K. ↓, Kone K. ↑,
- 74', Morcillo J. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
- 79', 3 - 2, Fernandez Sanchez M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 82', Dzodic S. 🟨,
- 84', Matos Jose 🟨,
- 85', 4 - 2, Embarba A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 86', Zalazar K. ↓, Illescas M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Almería
53.4% | Draw
25.2% | Ceuta
21.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
Almería - Ceuta Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.77 ↑
(1.62) |
3.74 ↓
(3.89) |
4.39 ↓
(5.18) |
6.1%
(6.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Almería - Ceuta?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Almería: 47.7% – 95.1%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Almería will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 and 10)
- Recent form of Almería has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Ceuta has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Almería is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Almería: Chumi
(Knock)
Fidel Cedillo Segura P.
(Injury)
Lopy D.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Ceuta: Jamelli
(Injury)
Ortuno J.
(Injury)
Sanchez M.
(Injury)
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Almería won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.
How many head-to-head matches has Almería won against Ceuta?
Almería has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ceuta won against Almería?
Ceuta has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Almería - Ceuta were as follows:
26.11.2025
Ceuta
-
Almería
3:2
Latest results of Almería
Spanish LaLiga2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Santander | 35 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 72:54 | 18 | 65 |
| 2 | Dep. La Coruna | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 53:38 | 15 | 61 |
| 3 | Almeria | 35 | 18 | 7 | 10 | 67:52 | 15 | 61 |
| 4 | Malaga | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 58:41 | 17 | 60 |
| 5 | Burgos CF | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 42:29 | 13 | 60 |
| 6 | Castellon | 35 | 16 | 10 | 9 | 58:43 | 15 | 58 |
| 7 | Las Palmas | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 45:30 | 15 | 57 |
| 8 | Eibar | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 40:31 | 9 | 54 |
| 9 | Andorra | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 51:47 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Gijon | 35 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 45:44 | 1 | 49 |
| 11 | Ceuta | 35 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 42:55 | -13 | 49 |
| 12 | Cordoba | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 47:52 | -5 | 48 |
| 13 | Granada CF | 35 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 44:41 | 3 | 45 |
| 14 | Albacete | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 44:47 | -3 | 44 |
| 15 | Leganes | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 40:38 | 2 | 42 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad B | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 45:50 | -5 | 41 |
| 17 | Valladolid | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 39:47 | -8 | 39 |
| 18 | Cadiz CF | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 33:48 | -15 | 38 |
| 19 | Zaragoza | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 31:47 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Huesca | 35 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 35:53 | -18 | 33 |
| 21 | Mirandes | 35 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 37:56 | -19 | 33 |
| 22 | Cultural Leonesa | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 31:56 | -25 | 32 |
Promotion ~ LaLiga
Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation
