Result
0:2
27/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 11
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 0.42 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 70% | 30% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (394/470) | 63% (124/196) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.81 | 0.42 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 17 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (394/470) | 63% (124/196) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (41/63) | 32% (18/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (89/131) | 47% (31/66) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (9/31) | 31% (4/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 0.24 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 31 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (10/15) | 64% (7/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 40 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.21 | 0.02 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.79 | 0.02 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 6', 0 - 1, Gonzalez B. ⚽, Ledezma R. (A),
- 12', 0 - 2, Govea O. ⚽, Alvarez E. (A),
- 30', Sandoval S. 🟨,
- 33', Cristante H. 🟨,
- 34', Gonzalez O. ↓, Guerra E. ↑,
- 36', Castillo J. 🟨,
- 45+2', Castillo R. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Sandoval S. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
- 46', Gonzalez B. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
- 46', Castillo R. ↓, Baltazar C. ↑,
- 58', Alvarez E. ↓, Tapias M. ↑,
- 59', Ramirez M. ↓, Lozano E. ↑,
- 69', Monarrez F. 🟨,
- 69', Ledezma R. ↓, Brizuela I. ↑,
- 79', Monarrez F. ↓, Moreno I. ↑,
- 79', Gonzalez A. ↓, Pulido A. ↑,
- 87', Guerra E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Puebla
28% | Draw
27.4% | Chivas Guadalajara
44.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Puebla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puebla than the current prediction. (+2.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-0.4%)
Puebla - Chivas Guadalajara Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.39 ↑
(3.14) |
3.44 ↓
(3.66) |
2.15 ↑
(2.09) |
5.1%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Puebla - Chivas Guadalajara?
Users Predictions:
Chivas Guadalajara will win
(10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Chivas Guadalajara will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 2.
- Recent form of Puebla has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Guadalajara has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Puebla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Guadalajara has had a series of home games.
- Guadalajara is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Puebla: Cavallini L.
(Knee Injury)
Fedorco J.
(Injury)
Pachuca Martinez J. R.
(International duty)
- There will not play in Guadalajara: Aguirre D.
(Injury)
Alvarado R.
(Ankle Injury)
Chicharito
(Knock)
Gutierrez E.
(Muscle Injury)
Mozo A.
(Knee Injury)
Padilla Y.
(Hip Injury)
Sepulveda L.
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Puebla: Navarro E.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Puebla won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 25:27. (average 1.3:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Puebla won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Puebla won against Chivas Guadalajara?
Puebla has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Chivas Guadalajara won against Puebla?
Chivas Guadalajara has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Puebla - Chivas Guadalajara were as follows:
15.04.2025
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Puebla
1:0
25.10.2024
Puebla
-
Chivas Guadalajara
1:0
06.04.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Puebla
3:2
20.10.2023
Puebla
-
Chivas Guadalajara
0:2
10.03.2023
Puebla
-
Chivas Guadalajara
1:0
Latest results of Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca ✔ | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 32 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 31:14 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul ✔ | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 27:17 | 10 | 32 |
| 4 | Club America ✔ | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 31:16 | 15 | 31 |
| 5 | Monterrey ✔ | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 30:24 | 6 | 30 |
| 6 | Guadalajara Chivas | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 24:20 | 4 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 26:19 | 7 | 21 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:17 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Juarez | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24:25 | -1 | 20 |
| 10 | Atl. San Luis | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20:20 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Atlas | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 24:33 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 15 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 14 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 19:27 | -8 | 13 |
| 16 | Club Leon | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13:27 | -14 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15:27 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Puebla | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 19:38 | -19 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Toluca is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Tigres UANL is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Cruz Azul is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Club America is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Monterrey is Qualified for Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
