Fluminense vs Cruzeiro – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Fluminense - Cruzeiro
Result
0:2
17/07/2025 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 14
  • Referee: Klein R. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
ecuadorEcuadorEl Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
israelIsraelSport 3
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.500.81
Ball Possession
70%30%
Total shots
278
Shots on target
65
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
72
Passes
91% (545/601)77% (212/274)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.500.81
xG on target (xGOT)
0.151.62
Total shots
278
Shots on target
65
Shots off target
153
Blocked Shots
60
Shots inside the Box
197
Shots outside the Box
81
Hit the Woodwork
30
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
72
Touches in opposition box
5115
Accurate through passes
21
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1312
Passes
91% (545/601)77% (212/274)
Long passes
65% (33/51)33% (14/43)
Passes in final third
84% (169/201)71% (40/56)
Crosses
21% (9/42)17% (1/6)
Expected assists (xA)
2.180.54
Throw-ins
227
Fouls
1213
Tackles
75% (6/8)56% (10/18)
Duels won
4449
Clearances
953
Interceptions
610
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
36
xGOT faced
1.620.15
Goals prevented
-0.380.15

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 2)
  • 30', 0 - 1, Fabricio Bruno , Matheus Pereira (A),
  • 35', 0 - 2, Kaio Jorge , Matheus Pereira (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Nonato , Serna K. ,
  • 59', Martinelli 🟨,
  • 63', Kaua Prates , William Furtado ,
  • 66', Soteldo Y. , Keno ,
  • 66', Cano G. , Everaldo ,
  • 67', Cassio 🟨,
  • 75', Fuentes G. , Rene ,
  • 76', Martinelli , Lima ,
  • 79', Matheus Pereira , Eduardo ,
  • 79', Wanderson , Marquinhos ,
  • 86', Marquinhos 🟨,
  • 88', Kaio Jorge , Gabriel Barbosa ,
  • 89', Christian , Jonathan Jesus ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Fluminense
41.8%
Draw
31.6%
Cruzeiro
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.7% 29.8% 33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2% 29.4% 33%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.
  • Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cruzeiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruzeiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Fluminense - Cruzeiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.28
    (2.55)
    3
    (3.15)
    3.57
    (2.8)
    5.2%
    (6.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Fluminense - Cruzeiro?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH 0 - Fluminense (votes: 4 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (53 of 65 users predict this - 81.54%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 72.11%90.97%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Fluminense will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 4.
    • Now, both teams are in good form.
    • Cruzeiro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Cruzeiro has had a series of home games.
    • Fluminense might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Fluminense: Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury)
    • There will not play in Cruzeiro: Janderson (Knee Injury) Joao Marcelo (Knee Injury) Kaiki (Yellow Cards) Matheus Henrique (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Fluminense: Riquelme Felipe (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Cruzeiro: William Furtado (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 30:25. (average 1.5:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 1.6:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Fluminense - Cruzeiro were as follows:
    03.10.2024 Fluminense - Cruzeiro 1:0
    19.06.2024 Cruzeiro - Fluminense 2:0
    20.09.2023 Fluminense - Cruzeiro 1:0
    10.05.2023 Cruzeiro - Fluminense 0:2
    Latest results of Fluminense
    13.07.2025 Mirassol - Fluminense Postponed
    08.07.2025 Fluminense - Chelsea 0:2
    04.07.2025 Fluminense - Al-Hilal 2:1
    30.06.2025 Inter Milan - Fluminense 0:2
    Latest results of Cruzeiro
    13.07.2025 Cruzeiro - Grêmio 4:1
    06.07.2025 Cruzeiro - Banfield 1:0
    01.06.2025 Cruzeiro - Palmeiras 2:1
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ19134236:92743
    2Palmeiras18123324:15939
    3Cruzeiro20115432:141838
    4Bahia1896325:17833
    5Botafogo RJ1885523:111229
    6Mirassol1878329:191029
    7Sao Paulo2078524:22229
    8Fluminense1883723:24-127
    9Bragantino2083922:26-427
    10Ceara1974819:19025
    11Atletico-MG1866620:21-124
    12Internacional1966722:26-424
    13Gremio1965819:25-623
    14Corinthians2057819:25-622
    15Santos19631020:29-921
    16Vasco19541025:26-119
    17Vitoria20310718:24-619
    18Juventude19531117:38-2118
    19Fortaleza19361019:31-1215
    20Sport Recife18171012:27-1510

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet