Result
1:0
11/10/2025 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 11
- Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 South-america | Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica |
 Uruguay | Disney+, VTV+ |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 49% | 51% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 20 | 11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Alvarez J. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
- 57', Ocampo M. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
- 61', Wunsch N. ↓, Lozano B. ↑,
- 63', Barrios G. 🟨,
- 75', Caceres S. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
- 75', Paiva S. ↓, Morales B. ↑,
- 76', 1 - 0, Alvarez J. ⚽,
- 81', Machado A. ↓, Abreu D. ↑,
- 83', Lozano B. 🟨,
- 86', Agazzi L. ↓, Biscayzacu X. ↑,
- 89', Larrosa E. ↓, Farias M. ↑,
- 90+2', Neira I. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Cerro
26.5% | Draw
30.8% | Defensor Sporting
42.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
Cerro - Defensor Sporting Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.56 ↑
(3.33) |
3.04 ↓
(3.18) |
2.19 ↑
(2.12) |
6.6%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Cerro - Defensor Sporting?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.25 - Cerro (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Defensor Sporting will win
(4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Defensor Sporting will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Cerro (votes: 1 - 25%). Defensor Sporting (votes: 3 - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 0.
- Cerro has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Defensor Sporting is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Cerro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Defensor Sporting is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 2 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 14:29. (average 0.7:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cerro won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Cerro won against Defensor Sporting?
Cerro has won 0 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Defensor Sporting won against Cerro?
Defensor Sporting has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cerro - Defensor Sporting were as follows:
22.06.2025
Defensor Sporting
-
Cerro
2:1
14.04.2025
Defensor Sporting
-
Cerro
3:2
07.09.2024
Cerro
-
Defensor Sporting
1:1
25.02.2024
Defensor Sporting
-
Cerro
5:0
15.11.2023
Cerro
-
Defensor Sporting
1:1
Latest results of Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Central Esp | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Nacional | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Defensor Sp | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Maldonado | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Penarol | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Danubio | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Montevideo City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Albion | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Liverpool M | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Juventud | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | -2 | 1 |
| 14 | Boston River | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:4 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | CA Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:6 | -6 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
