Result
1:0
05/04/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 10
- Referee: Feres J. (Uru)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 43% | 57% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 28', Aleman B. 🟨,
- 40', Cuello E. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 48', Arguello M. 🟨,
- 59', Macelli A. 🟨,
- 65', Frugone A. 🟨,
- 67', Nongoy P. ↓, Rijo T. ↑,
- 67', Wunsch N. ↓, Lozano B. ↑,
- 67', Cuello E. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
- 75', Machado A. ↓, Rodriguez V. ↑,
- 75', Castro F. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
- 77', Navarro L. 🟨,
- 83', 1 - 0, Aleman B. ⚽,
- 85', Morales B. 🟨,
- 87', Guasone J. 🟨,
- 88', Morales B. ↓, Soria N. ↑,
- 90', Sorondo F. ↓, Caballero M. ↑,
- 90+2', Aleman B. ↓, Mederos R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Cerro
28.3% | Draw
31.2% | Defensor Sporting
40.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)Defensor Sporting has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro than the current prediction. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Cerro - Defensor Sporting Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.3 ↑
(3.09) |
3 ↓
(3.16) |
2.31 ↓
(2.32) |
7%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Cerro - Defensor Sporting?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Cerro will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Cerro (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.25 - Cerro (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Cerro (2.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -0.75 - Cerro (3.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Cerro (5.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Cerro will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Cerro (votes: 7 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 1.
- Recent form of Cerro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Defensor Sporting's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Defensor Sporting may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Defensor Sporting could have a small edge in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 15:28. (average 0.8:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cerro won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.6:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Cerro won against Defensor Sporting?
Cerro has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Defensor Sporting won against Cerro?
Defensor Sporting has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cerro - Defensor Sporting were as follows:
11.10.2025
Cerro
-
Defensor Sporting
1:0
22.06.2025
Defensor Sporting
-
Cerro
2:1
14.04.2025
Defensor Sporting
-
Cerro
3:2
07.09.2024
Cerro
-
Defensor Sporting
1:1
25.02.2024
Defensor Sporting
-
Cerro
5:0
Latest results of Defensor Sporting
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18:9 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Penarol | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17:8 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Maldonado | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15:10 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Central Esp | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:11 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Nacional | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:11 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Montevideo City | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:11 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 | Albion | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Liverpool M | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Defensor Sp | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7:7 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12:13 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Danubio | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Boston River | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Cerro | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5:14 | -9 | 8 |
| 15 | Progreso | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9:17 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Juventud | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9:17 | -8 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
