Result
1:1
04/10/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 9
- Referee: Langford O. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Usa | Paramount+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.44 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 37% | 63% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (262/334) | 86% (506/585) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.92 | 1.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (262/334) | 86% (506/585) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (22/59) | 47% (24/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (87/131) | 74% (112/151) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (4/25) | 27% (6/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.06 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (9/18) | 63% (5/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 37 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 32 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.50 | 1.92 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.50 | 0.92 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 7', 0 - 1, Armstrong A. ⚽,
- 15', Stewart R. 🟨,
- 22', Forsyth C. 🟨,
- 30', Stewart R. ↓, Fellows T. ↑,
- 32', Travis L. 🟨,
- 33', Johnston M. 🟨,
- 40', 1 - 1, Agyemang P. ⚽, Weimann A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 60', Scienza L. ↓, Downs D. ↑,
- 62', Weimann A. 🟨,
- 68', Clark B. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
- 69', Ozoh D. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
- 79', Charles S. ↓, Downes F. ↑,
- 79', Fraser R. ↓, Azaz F. ↑,
- 79', Agyemang P. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
- 79', Weimann A. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
- 85', Downes F. 🟨,
- 85', Morris C. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Derby County
27.3% | Draw
28.5% | Southampton
44.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
Derby County - Southampton Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.46 ↑
(3.05) |
3.34 ↓
(3.5) |
2.15 ↓
(2.25) |
5.3%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Derby County - Southampton?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). S`hampton will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 40.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 20.4% – 61.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 6 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 50%). S`hampton (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - S`hampton (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 42.9%). S`hampton (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 and 15).
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Derby may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- S`hampton is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Blackett-Taylor C.
(Hamstring Injury)
Brewster R.
(Injury)
Langas S.
(Knee Injury)
Thompson L.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in S`hampton: Edozie S.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in S`hampton: Welington
(Ankle Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Southampton?
Derby County has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Southampton won against Derby County?
Southampton has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Southampton were as follows:
Latest results of Derby County
Latest results of Southampton
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 72:38 | 34 | 71 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 35 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 54:35 | 19 | 66 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 60:34 | 26 | 63 |
| 4 | Millwall | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 47:40 | 7 | 62 |
| 5 | Hull | 35 | 18 | 6 | 11 | 56:49 | 7 | 60 |
| 6 | Wrexham | 35 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 54:45 | 9 | 57 |
| 7 | Southampton | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 57:46 | 11 | 53 |
| 8 | Derby | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 52:46 | 6 | 51 |
| 9 | Watford | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 45:41 | 4 | 51 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 35 | 14 | 8 | 13 | 48:44 | 4 | 50 |
| 11 | Preston | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 41:40 | 1 | 49 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 46:46 | 0 | 49 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 35 | 15 | 3 | 17 | 50:48 | 2 | 48 |
| 14 | Stoke | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 39:34 | 5 | 47 |
| 15 | QPR | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 46:54 | -8 | 47 |
| 16 | Swansea | 35 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 40:43 | -3 | 46 |
| 17 | Norwich | 35 | 13 | 6 | 16 | 47:44 | 3 | 45 |
| 18 | Charlton | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 33:44 | -11 | 41 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 34:44 | -10 | 39 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 35 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 33:46 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | West Brom | 35 | 9 | 8 | 18 | 34:52 | -18 | 35 |
| 22 | Leicester | 35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 47:56 | -9 | 34 |
| 23 | Oxford Utd | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 31:47 | -16 | 32 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed ✔ | 35 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 21:71 | -50 | -7 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
Clinched Spots for Teams
Sheffield Wed is Relegated to League One
