Result
 
                    1:1
                
               
                
                                 
                    
                    
                        04/10/2025 at  10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
                    
 
                 
                
                
				
				                
				
				                
                 
                 
                     
                     
                                                -  Championship - Round 9
- Referee: Langford O. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV: 
                    
|  |  | 
|---|
|  Usa | Paramount+ | 
 
                     
                  
				
				            
            
            
                            				
                
                
				
				                 
                    
                        Match Stats
                    
                    
                        
                                
|  |  | 
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.44 | 
| Ball Possession | 
|---|
| 37% | 63% | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 9 | 13 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 5 | 6 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 3 | 3 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 3 | 5 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 78% (262/334) | 86% (506/585) | 
| Yellow Cards | 
|---|
| 4 | 2 | 
| Expected Goals (xG) | 
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.44 | 
| xG on target (xGOT) | 
|---|
| 1.92 | 1.50 | 
| Total shots | 
|---|
| 9 | 13 | 
| Shots on target | 
|---|
| 5 | 6 | 
| Shots off target | 
|---|
| 4 | 4 | 
| Blocked Shots | 
|---|
| 0 | 3 | 
| Shots inside the Box | 
|---|
| 7 | 8 | 
| Shots outside the Box | 
|---|
| 2 | 5 | 
| Hit the Woodwork | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Headed Goals | 
|---|
| 1 | 0 | 
| Big Chances | 
|---|
| 3 | 3 | 
| Corner Kicks | 
|---|
| 3 | 5 | 
| Touches in opposition box | 
|---|
| 11 | 20 | 
| Accurate through passes | 
|---|
| 1 | 0 | 
| Offsides | 
|---|
| 1 | 2 | 
| Free Kicks | 
|---|
| 9 | 11 | 
| Passes | 
|---|
| 78% (262/334) | 86% (506/585) | 
| Long passes | 
|---|
| 37% (22/59) | 47% (24/51) | 
| Passes in final third | 
|---|
| 66% (87/131) | 74% (112/151) | 
| Crosses | 
|---|
| 16% (4/25) | 27% (6/22) | 
| Expected assists (xA) | 
|---|
| 0.87 | 1.06 | 
| Throw-ins | 
|---|
| 19 | 25 | 
| Fouls | 
|---|
| 11 | 9 | 
| Tackles | 
|---|
| 50% (9/18) | 63% (5/8) | 
| Duels won | 
|---|
| 46 | 37 | 
| Clearances | 
|---|
| 32 | 23 | 
| Interceptions | 
|---|
| 9 | 5 | 
| Errors leading to shot | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Errors leading to goal | 
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 
| Goalkeeper Saves | 
|---|
| 5 | 4 | 
| xGOT faced | 
|---|
| 1.50 | 1.92 | 
| Goals prevented | 
|---|
| 0.50 | 0.92 | 
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Key Moments
                    
                    
					    Here there are
                                
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 7', 0 - 1, Armstrong A. ⚽, 
- 15', Stewart R. 🟨, 
- 22', Forsyth C. 🟨, 
- 30', Stewart R. ↓, Fellows T. ↑, 
- 32', Travis L. 🟨, 
- 33', Johnston M. 🟨, 
- 40', 1 - 1, Agyemang P. ⚽, Weimann A. (A), 
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 60', Scienza L. ↓, Downs D. ↑, 
- 62', Weimann A. 🟨, 
- 68', Clark B. ↓, Brewster R. ↑, 
- 69', Ozoh D. ↓, Adams E. ↑, 
- 79', Charles S. ↓, Downes F. ↑, 
- 79', Fraser R. ↓, Azaz F. ↑, 
- 79', Agyemang P. ↓, Jackson K. ↑, 
- 79', Weimann A. ↓, Ward J. ↑, 
- 85', Downes F. 🟨, 
- 85', Morris C. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑, 
  
                 
				 				 
				                 
				 				 
				 
				 				 
				 
				 
				
				                 
                    
                        Chances of winning
                    
                    
                        
                                
 | Derby County 27.3%
 | Draw 28.5%
 | Southampton 44.2%
 | 
Initial Probability
 (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
                        
                      
                 
				 				 
				 
				                  
                    
                        Derby County - Southampton Odds
                    
                    
                        
                                
            
            
            
			
			
			   |  | 1 | X | 2 | Marga |  | 
			
			
			   | Avarage Now (Initially)
 | 3.46 ↑ (3.05)
 | 3.34 ↓ (3.5)
 | 2.15 ↓ (2.25)
 | 5.3% (5.9%)
 |  | 
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  
                 
				 				 
				 
				 
            
                                 
                    
                        What is the prediction for Derby County - Southampton?
                    
                    
                        
						        
                                            
                                            Users Predictions: 
                                            
                                            
                                            22 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 6 - 27.3%). S`hampton will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 40.9%). 
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 20.4% – 61.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 2 - 40%). S`hampton (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).                                The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
                        
						
                    
 
                 
                                
                
                                  
                    
                     Preview Facts
                    
                    
                        
                             - An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 and 15).
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Derby may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- S`hampton is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Blackett-Taylor C.
(Hamstring Injury)
Brewster R.
(Injury)
Langas S.
(Knee Injury)
Thompson L.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in S`hampton: Edozie S.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in S`hampton: Welington
(Ankle Injury)
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).                        
  
                 
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Southampton?
                    
                    
                        
                            Derby County has won  of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                                  
                    
                        How many head-to-head matches has Southampton won against Derby County?
                    
                    
                        
                             Southampton has won  of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
                        
                    
 
                 
                
                
                
                                 
                    
                        What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
                    
                    
                    
                        
                            The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Southampton were as follows:
                                                     
                      
                    
                 
                
                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Derby County                    
                    
                    
                 
                                
                                
                    
                        Latest results of Southampton                    
                    
                 
				
				
				
                
                
                                 
                                 
                			   
			                       
                            
                                                
English League Championship Table
2025/26|  |  | Pl | W | D | L |  | Diff | Pts | 
| 1 | Coventry | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 34:9 | 25 | 28 | 
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 25 | 
| 3 | Millwall | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 14:13 | 1 | 23 | 
| 4 | Bristol City | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20:11 | 9 | 22 | 
| 5 | Stoke | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13:8 | 5 | 21 | 
| 6 | Charlton | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14:10 | 4 | 19 | 
| 7 | Preston | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 19 | 
| 8 | Hull | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 | 
| 9 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15:17 | -2 | 18 | 
| 10 | Leicester | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 17 | 
| 11 | West Brom | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 17 | 
| 12 | Ipswich | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17:13 | 4 | 16 | 
| 13 | Swansea | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12:12 | 0 | 16 | 
| 14 | Watford | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14:16 | -2 | 15 | 
| 15 | Birmingham | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11:15 | -4 | 15 | 
| 16 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 | 
| 17 | Derby | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 14 | 
| 18 | Portsmouth | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 13 | 
| 19 | Oxford Utd | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13:15 | -2 | 12 | 
| 20 | Southampton | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13:17 | -4 | 12 | 
| 21 | Blackburn | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10:17 | -7 | 10 | 
| 22 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 9:20 | -11 | 9 | 
| 23 | Norwich | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12:18 | -6 | 8 | 
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10:25 | -15 | -6 | 
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      Relegation ~ League One