Swansea City vs Derby County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Championship Swansea City - Derby County
Result
1:0
05/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Championship - Round 40
  • Referee: Davies A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
hungaryHungaryNet4+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.250.64
Ball Possession
63%37%
Total shots
312
Shots on target
12
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
43
Passes
75% (350/468)55% (150/274)
Yellow Cards
02
Expected Goals (xG)
0.250.64
xG on target (xGOT)
0.280.33
Total shots
312
Shots on target
12
Shots off target
26
Blocked Shots
04
Shots inside the Box
210
Shots outside the Box
12
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
43
Touches in opposition box
328
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
127
Passes
75% (350/468)55% (150/274)
Long passes
26% (23/87)28% (20/72)
Passes in final third
57% (72/126)46% (53/115)
Crosses
13% (3/24)28% (5/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.310.72
Fouls
712
Tackles
67% (8/12)60% (9/15)
Duels won
6571
Clearances Total
4824
Interceptions
710
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
20
xGOT faced
0.330.28
Goals prevented
0.33-0.72

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 62', Franco G. , Vipotnik Z. ,
  • 62', Delcroix H. , Eom J. ,
  • 67', Forsyth C. 🟨,
  • 77', Fulton J. , Allen J. ,
  • 79', 1 - 0, Eom J. , Key J. (A),
  • 82', Harness M. 🟨,
  • 83', Adams E. , Mendez-Laing N. ,
  • 83', Thompson L. , Rooney J. ,
  • 83', Langas S. , Goudmijn K. ,
  • 90', Harness M. , Wheeldon L. ,
  • 90+2', Ronald , Christie C. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Swansea City
44.2%
Draw
31.6%
Derby County
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47% 27.1% 25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1% 28.3% 24.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Swansea City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)
  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
  • Swansea City - Derby County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.17
    (2.01)
    3.02
    (3.48)
    3.93
    (3.65)
    4.7%
    (5.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Swansea City - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Swansea will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Derby will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Swansea: 25.5%74.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 16 and 20).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Swansea won 3.
    • Recent matches Swansea is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Derby is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
    • Swansea could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
    • Swansea will have a small advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Swansea: Pedersen K. (Hamstring Injury)
    • There will not play in Derby: Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Osborn B. (Hamstring Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury) Salvesen L. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Swansea: Franco G. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Derby: Brown D. (Hamstring Injury) Nyambe R. (Injury)
    • Last 9 head-to-head matches Swansea won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.1:1.2).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Swansea won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.8:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Swansea City - Derby County were as follows:
    27.11.2024 Derby County - Swansea City 1:2
    Latest results of Swansea City
    Latest results of Derby County
    English League Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Stoke22006:156
    2Middlesbrough22004:046
    3West Brom22004:226
    4Bristol City31205:235
    5Coventry21105:324
    6Birmingham21103:214
    7Hull21103:214
    8Preston21103:214
    9Southampton21103:214
    10Charlton21101:014
    11Leicester21013:303
    12Norwich21013:303
    13Portsmouth21012:203
    14Watford21012:203
    15Swansea21011:103
    16Millwall21012:4-23
    17Ipswich20202:202
    18QPR20112:3-11
    19Derby30125:9-41
    20Wrexham20023:5-20
    21Oxford Utd20022:4-20
    22Blackburn20021:3-20
    23Sheffield Utd20021:5-40
    24Sheffield Wed20021:5-40

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          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One