Result
1:0
05/04/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 40
- Referee: Davies A. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Hungary | Net4+ |
Match Stats
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| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.25 | 0.64 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
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| 1 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 75% (350/468) | 55% (150/274) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.25 | 0.64 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
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| 0.28 | 0.33 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
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| 1 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
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| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
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| 4 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
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| 3 | 28 |
| Offsides |
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| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Passes |
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| 75% (350/468) | 55% (150/274) |
| Long passes |
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| 26% (23/87) | 28% (20/72) |
| Passes in final third |
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| 57% (72/126) | 46% (53/115) |
| Crosses |
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| 13% (3/24) | 28% (5/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.31 | 0.72 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Tackles |
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| 67% (8/12) | 60% (9/15) |
| Duels won |
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| 65 | 71 |
| Clearances Total |
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| 48 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
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| 7 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
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| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
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| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
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| 2 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
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| 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Goals prevented |
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| 0.33 | -0.72 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 62', Franco G. ↓, Vipotnik Z. ↑,
- 62', Delcroix H. ↓, Eom J. ↑,
- 67', Forsyth C. 🟨,
- 77', Fulton J. ↓, Allen J. ↑,
- 79', 1 - 0, Eom J. ⚽, Key J. (A),
- 82', Harness M. 🟨,
- 83', Adams E. ↓, Mendez-Laing N. ↑,
- 83', Thompson L. ↓, Rooney J. ↑,
- 83', Langas S. ↓, Goudmijn K. ↑,
- 90', Harness M. ↓, Wheeldon L. ↑,
- 90+2', Ronald ↓, Christie C. ↑,
Chances of winning
Swansea City
44.2% | Draw
31.6% | Derby County
24.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Swansea City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swansea City than the current prediction. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Swansea City - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.17 ↑
(2.01) |
3.02 ↓
(3.48) |
3.93 ↑
(3.65) |
4.7%
(5.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for Swansea City - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Swansea will win (votes: 8 - 50%). Derby will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swansea: 25.5% – 74.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 16 and 20).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Swansea won 3.
- Recent matches Swansea is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Derby is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
- Swansea could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
- Swansea will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Swansea: Pedersen K.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Derby: Nelson C.
(Knee Injury)
Osborn B.
(Hamstring Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Thigh Injury)
Salvesen L.
(Knee Injury)
Ward J.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Swansea: Franco G.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Brown D.
(Hamstring Injury)
Nyambe R.
(Injury)
- Last 9 head-to-head matches Swansea won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.1:1.2).
- Including matches at home between the teams Swansea won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.8:1.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Swansea City won against Derby County?
Swansea City has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Swansea City?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Swansea City - Derby County were as follows:
27.11.2024
Derby County
-
Swansea City
1:2
Latest results of Swansea City
Latest results of Derby County
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12:5 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Coventry | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 22:7 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:5 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9:7 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Bristol City | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:8 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Leicester | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Preston | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9:7 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Swansea | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:7 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:13 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Birmingham | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6:12 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Ipswich | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:7 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Southampton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:11 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Hull | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13:16 | -3 | 9 |
| 19 | Norwich | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:11 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:14 | -4 | 7 |
| 21 | Oxford Utd | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 6 |
| 22 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:10 | -4 | 6 |
| 23 | Sheffield Wed | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8:15 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3:15 | -12 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
