Result
1:2
25/11/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 17
- Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 1.05 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 73% | 27% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (585/678) | 66% (160/241) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 1.05 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.68 | 1.40 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 9 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 31 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (585/678) | 66% (160/241) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 33% (15/45) | 39% (21/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (126/170) | 59% (57/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (4/30) | 46% (6/13) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.85 | 1.40 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 24 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 68% (13/19) | 83% (10/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 61 | 48 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 39 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.40 | 1.68 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.60 | 0.68 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 34', 0 - 1, Ward J. ⚽, Elder C. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 53', 0 - 2, Salvesen L. ⚽,
- 57', Cullen L. ↓, Franco G. ↑,
- 57', Ronald ↓, Manuel Hedilazio B. ↑,
- 57', Fulton J. ↓, Stamenic M. ↑,
- 71', Salvesen L. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
- 74', Eom J. ↓, Inoussa Z. ↑,
- 80', Agyemang P. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
- 80', Ward J. ↓, Nyambe R. ↑,
- 82', Brereton Diaz B. 🟨,
- 83', Vipotnik Z. ↓, Idah A. ↑,
- 90', 1 - 2, Galbraith E. ⚽,
- 90+4', Elder C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Swansea City
43.8% | Draw
30.5% | Derby County
25.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Swansea City - Derby County Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.17 ↑
(2.12) |
3.14 ↓
(3.26) |
3.67 ↑
(3.57) |
5.2%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Swansea City - Derby County?
Users Predictions:
20 users predict this event. Swansea will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Derby will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swansea: 18.5% – 61.5%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Derby (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swansea won 4.
- Swansea has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Derby is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Swansea is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Nelson C.
(Inactive)
Sanderson D.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Derby: Beck O.
(Inactive)
Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Morris C.
(Injury)
Travis L.
(Calf Injury)
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Swansea won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Swansea won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Swansea City won against Derby County?
Swansea City has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Swansea City?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Swansea City - Derby County were as follows:
05.04.2025
Swansea City
-
Derby County
1:0
27.11.2024
Derby County
-
Swansea City
1:2
Latest results of Swansea City
Latest results of Derby County
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 61:31 | 30 | 58 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 42:29 | 13 | 52 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 47:24 | 23 | 50 |
| 4 | Hull | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 45:39 | 6 | 47 |
| 5 | Millwall | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 32:35 | -3 | 46 |
| 6 | Preston | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 36:29 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Watford | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 38:32 | 6 | 42 |
| 8 | Stoke | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 33:25 | 8 | 41 |
| 9 | Wrexham | 28 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 40:35 | 5 | 41 |
| 10 | Derby | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 38:36 | 2 | 41 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 38:31 | 7 | 40 |
| 12 | QPR | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 38:39 | -1 | 40 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38:37 | 1 | 38 |
| 14 | Leicester | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 39:41 | -2 | 38 |
| 15 | Southampton | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 40:40 | 0 | 36 |
| 16 | Swansea | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 31:35 | -4 | 36 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 27 | 10 | 2 | 15 | 36:40 | -4 | 32 |
| 18 | Charlton | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27:34 | -7 | 32 |
| 19 | West Brom | 28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 31:43 | -12 | 31 |
| 20 | Norwich | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 35:40 | -5 | 30 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 23:36 | -13 | 29 |
| 22 | Blackburn | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 25:36 | -11 | 28 |
| 23 | Oxford Utd | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 25:35 | -10 | 24 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:54 | -36 | -7 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
