Result
0:1
02/05/2026 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 8
- Referee: Karabaev S. (Kaz)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 21 | 11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 2', Martynovich A. 🟨,
- 25', 0 - 1, Jukkola O. ⚽, Edmilson (A),
- 38', Jukkola O. 🟨,
- 44', Jorginho 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 59', Shvyrev V. ↓, Turlybek M. ↑,
- 59', Poe J. ↓, Agimanov T. ↑,
- 60', Omatay M. ↓, Shimamura Y. ↑,
- 63', Edmilson ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
- 64', Baybek O. ↓, Sadybekov A. ↑,
- 69', Klimovich V. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
- 79', Zharynbetov S. 🟨,
- 80', Jukkola O. ↓, Tapalov E. ↑,
- 82', Shimamura Y. 🟨,
- 89', Mrynskiy A. ↓, Shirobokov A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Ertis Pavlodar
19% | Draw
23.5% | Kairat
57.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ertis Pavlodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ertis Pavlodar's performance.Kairat has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kairat might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ertis Pavlodar than the current prediction. (-7.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ertis Pavlodar that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (+15.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kairat could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.81 ↓
(7.94) |
3.89 ↓
(4.83) |
1.59 ↑
(1.33) |
9.4%
(8.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat?
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Ertis will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Kairat will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 2.
- Ertis has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Kairat has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Kairat is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ertis won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 23:38. (average 1.2:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ertis won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1.7:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Ertis Pavlodar won against Kairat?
Ertis Pavlodar has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kairat won against Ertis Pavlodar?
Kairat has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ertis Pavlodar - Kairat were as follows:
Latest results of Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakh Premier League Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12:3 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12:6 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:8 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Yelimay Semey | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12:7 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Astana | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Kyzylzhar | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:7 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Aktobe | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Atyrau | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Zhenis | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Ertis Pavlodar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Tobol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:13 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Altai | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kaspij Aktau | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3:11 | -8 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ First League
