Result
1:2
22/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 27
- Referee: Narciso A. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.64 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (366/443) | 78% (286/367) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.15 | 1.64 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.23 | 1.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (366/443) | 78% (286/367) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (35/62) | 44% (28/63) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (103/139) | 59% (67/113) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (8/29) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.54 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 76% (13/17) | 76% (13/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 38 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.87 | 0.23 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.13 | -0.77 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 17', 1 - 0, Ferro ⚽, Holsgrove J. (A),
- 41', Carvalho J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Guitane R. ↓, Lacximicant A. ↑,
- 54', 1 - 1, Brabec J. ⚽, Diogo Bezerra (A),
- 58', Xeka ↓, Jandro ↑,
- 58', Carvalho P. ↓, Amaral P. ↑,
- 74', 1 - 2, Blesa J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 75', Tsoungui A. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
- 78', Lacximicant A. 🟨,
- 78', Pohlmann O. ↓, Ryan Guilherme ↑,
- 83', Spikic D. ↓, Monteiro T. ↑,
- 85', Abbey N. 🟨,
- 85', Holsgrove J. ↓, Marques A. ↑,
- 87', Nikitscher T. 🟨,
- 90+3', Blesa J. ↓, Lomboto J. ↑,
- 90+3', Diogo Bezerra ↓, Tome J. ↑,
- 90+9', Monteiro T. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Estoril Praia
54.4% | Draw
24.3% | Rio Ave
21.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
Estoril Praia - Rio Ave Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.74 ↓
(1.76) |
3.89 ↑
(3.85) |
4.42 ↑
(4.4) |
5.8%
(5.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Estoril Praia - Rio Ave?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH +0.5 - Rio Ave (4.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Estoril Praia will win
(13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Estoril Praia will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Rio Ave (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 3.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Estoril may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Estoril is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Estoril: Boma K.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Rio Ave: Aguilera Zamora B.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Rio Ave: Lomboto J.
(Inactive)
Spikic D.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:31. (average 1.4:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 1.1:1.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Rio Ave?
Estoril Praia has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Estoril Praia?
Rio Ave has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estoril Praia - Rio Ave were as follows:
01.11.2025
Rio Ave
-
Estoril Praia
0:4
22.02.2025
Estoril Praia
-
Rio Ave
2:1
21.09.2024
Rio Ave
-
Estoril Praia
2:2
31.01.2024
Rio Ave
-
Estoril Praia
1:1
20.08.2023
Estoril Praia
-
Rio Ave
2:0
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Latest results of Rio Ave
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 29 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 59:14 | 45 | 76 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 28 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 73:17 | 56 | 71 |
| 3 | Benfica | 29 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 61:18 | 43 | 69 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 55:27 | 28 | 52 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 36:25 | 11 | 47 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 42:28 | 14 | 45 |
| 7 | Estoril | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 51:50 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 36 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 32:41 | -9 | 36 |
| 10 | Alverca | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 32:47 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 31:48 | -17 | 33 |
| 12 | Arouca | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 37:58 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 26:37 | -11 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33:48 | -15 | 28 |
| 15 | Nacional | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 31:41 | -10 | 25 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 28:52 | -24 | 25 |
| 17 | Tondela | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19:44 | -25 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 29 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 19:62 | -43 | 12 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
