Estoril Praia vs Rio Ave – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

22/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril).

Liga Portugal - Round 27
Referee: Narciso A. (Por)
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.15	1.64
Ball possession
55%	45%
Total shots
13	13
Shots on target
4	8
Big chances
3	2
Corner kicks
10	7
Passes
83% (366/443)	78% (286/367)
Yellow cards
2	3
Expected goals (xG)
1.15	1.64
xG on target (xGOT)
0.23	1.87
Total shots
13	13
Shots on target
4	8
Shots off target
6	2
Blocked shots
3	3
Shots inside the box
8	9
Shots outside the box
5	4
Hit the woodwork
2	0
Headed goals
1	1
Big chances
3	2
Corner kicks
10	7
Touches in opposition box
28	20
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	3
Free kicks
11	16
Passes
83% (366/443)	78% (286/367)
Long passes
56% (35/62)	44% (28/63)
Passes in final third
74% (103/139)	59% (67/113)
Crosses
28% (8/29)	22% (4/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.23	0.54
Throw ins
22	20
Fouls
16	11
Tackles
76% (13/17)	76% (13/17)
Duels won
46	53
Clearances
37	38
Interceptions
8	8
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
5	3
xGOT faced
1.87	0.23
Goals prevented
-0.13	-0.77

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Ferro ⚽, Holsgrove J. (A),
41', Carvalho J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Guitane R. ↓, Lacximicant A. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Brabec J. ⚽, Diogo Bezerra (A),
58', Xeka ↓, Jandro ↑,
58', Carvalho P. ↓, Amaral P. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Blesa J. (Penalty Awarded),
75', Tsoungui A. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
78', Lacximicant A. 🟨,
78', Pohlmann O. ↓, Ryan Guilherme ↑,
83', Spikic D. ↓, Monteiro T. ↑,
85', Abbey N. 🟨,
85', Holsgrove J. ↓, Marques A. ↑,
87', Nikitscher T. 🟨,
90+3', Blesa J. ↓, Lomboto J. ↑,
90+3', Diogo Bezerra ↓, Tome J. ↑,
90+9', Monteiro T. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Estoril Praia
54.4%

Draw
24.3%

Rio Ave
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

24.6%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

24.5%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Estoril Praia - Rio Ave Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.76)	3.89 ↑ (3.85)	4.42 ↑ (4.4)	5.8% (5.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Estoril Praia - Rio Ave?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +0.5 - Rio Ave (4.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Estoril Praia will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Estoril Praia will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Estoril (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Rio Ave (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 3.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Estoril may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Estoril is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Estoril: Boma K. (Inactive)
There will not play in Rio Ave: Aguilera Zamora B. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Rio Ave: Lomboto J. (Inactive) Spikic D. (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:31. (average 1.4:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 1.1:1.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Rio Ave?

Estoril Praia has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Estoril Praia?

Rio Ave has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Estoril Praia - Rio Ave were as follows:

01.11.2025 Rio Ave - Estoril Praia 0:4

22.02.2025 Estoril Praia - Rio Ave 2:1

21.09.2024 Rio Ave - Estoril Praia 2:2

31.01.2024 Rio Ave - Estoril Praia 1:1

20.08.2023 Estoril Praia - Rio Ave 2:0

Latest results of Estoril Praia

15.03.2026 Nacional - Estoril Praia 0:1 ✺

07.03.2026 Estoril Praia - Casa Pia 0:0 ✺

27.02.2026 Sporting Lisbon - Estoril Praia 3:0 ✺

22.02.2026 Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente 3:1 ✺

15.02.2026 AVS - Estoril Praia 3:0 ✺

Latest results of Rio Ave

15.03.2026 Rio Ave - Estrela da Amadora 2:1 ✺

09.03.2026 Tondela - Rio Ave 0:1 ✺

01.03.2026 Rio Ave - Famalicão 0:0 ✺

22.02.2026 Porto - Rio Ave 1:0 ✺

16.02.2026 Rio Ave - Moreirense 1:2 ✺

Liga Portugal Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	27	23	3	1	54:11	43	72
2	Sporting CP	26	20	5	1	68:15	53	65
3	Benfica	27	19	8	0	58:17	41	65
4	Braga	26	13	7	6	53:27	26	46
5	Famalicao	27	13	6	8	33:22	11	45
6	Gil Vicente	27	11	9	7	39:28	11	42
7	Estoril	27	10	7	10	48:44	4	37
8	Moreirense	27	10	5	12	31:39	-8	35
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	27	9	5	13	29:42	-13	32
10	Rio Ave	27	7	9	11	28:46	-18	30
11	Alverca	27	7	8	12	27:45	-18	29
12	Arouca	27	8	5	14	34:55	-21	29
13	Santa Clara	27	7	7	13	24:31	-7	28
14	Estrela	27	6	10	11	33:45	-12	28
15	Casa Pia	26	5	9	12	26:48	-22	24
16	Nacional	27	5	7	15	29:39	-10	22
17	Tondela	26	4	8	14	19:39	-20	20
18	AFS	27	1	8	18	18:58	-40	11

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Liga Portugal (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2