Result
1:2
04/04/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Eerste Divisie - Round 33
- Referee: Blank E. (Ned)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Netherlands | Canal+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 1.18 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 39% | 61% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (276/364) | 82% (461/565) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 1.18 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 1.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 9 | 38 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (276/364) | 82% (461/565) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (33/73) | 59% (51/87) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (48/89) | 69% (160/233) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (3/10) | 20% (5/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.27 | 2.30 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (14/21) | 75% (3/4) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 52 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 60 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.56 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.58 | -0.44 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 35', 1 - 0, Braken S. ⚽, Smeets B. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Hatenboer C. ↓, Blomme X. ↑,
- 68', Bergraaf J. ↓, Omorowa R. ↑,
- 68', Donkor J. ↓, Fini S. ↑,
- 68', Pierie K. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
- 75', Braken S. ↓, El Basri N. ↑,
- 80', Esajas R. ↓, Kassimi A. ↑,
- 80', Kleinen M. ↓, Slegers F. ↑,
- 86', 1 - 1, Duijvestijn L. ⚽, Widell C. (A),
- 90', Fini S. ↓, Booth Z. ↑,
- 90+2', 1 - 2, van Duinen M. ⚽, Duijvestijn L. (A),
- 90+5', 🟨,
- 90+5', Kassimi A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
MVV Maastricht
18.2% | Draw
20.1% | Excelsior
61.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
MVV Maastricht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that MVV Maastricht's form might have worsened.Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Excelsior's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (+4.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (-7.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Excelsior, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
MVV Maastricht - Excelsior Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.11 ↑
(4.05) |
4.59 ↑
(4.1) |
1.52 ↓
(1.76) |
7.1%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.75
What is the prediction for MVV Maastricht - Excelsior?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Excelsior (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Excelsior will win
(9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Maastricht won 1.
- Maastricht has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
- Excelsior is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Maastricht could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- In this match Excelsior is a favorite.
- There will not play in Excelsior: Hartjes L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Maastricht: Braken S.
(Injury)
- Last 13 head-to-head matches Maastricht won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 15:23 (average 1.2:1.8).
- Including matches at home between the teams Maastricht won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:7 (average 1.3:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has MVV Maastricht won against Excelsior?
MVV Maastricht has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Excelsior won against MVV Maastricht?
Excelsior has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between MVV Maastricht - Excelsior were as follows:
18.10.2024
Excelsior
-
MVV Maastricht
3:2
19.10.2022
Excelsior
-
MVV Maastricht
5:1
Latest results of MVV Maastricht
Latest results of Excelsior
Dutch Eerste Divisie Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Den Haag | 28 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 69:30 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Cambuur | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 55:29 | 26 | 57 |
| 3 | De Graafschap | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 52:41 | 11 | 48 |
| 4 | Jong PSV | 28 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 58:52 | 6 | 46 |
| 5 | Roda | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 47:41 | 6 | 45 |
| 6 | Willem II | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 38:36 | 2 | 43 |
| 7 | Dordrecht | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 38:37 | 1 | 40 |
| 8 | Almere City | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 55:45 | 10 | 39 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 45:43 | 2 | 38 |
| 10 | Den Bosch | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 49:51 | -2 | 38 |
| 11 | Venlo | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 38:42 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | Eindhoven FC | 28 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 40:51 | -11 | 34 |
| 13 | Jong Utrecht | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 45:48 | -3 | 33 |
| 14 | Helmond | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 35:48 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | FC Emmen | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 42:48 | -6 | 30 |
| 16 | Jong AZ | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 49:55 | -6 | 30 |
| 17 | Maastricht | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 32:55 | -23 | 30 |
| 18 | Oss | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 34:48 | -14 | 27 |
| 19 | Vitesse | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 41:45 | -4 | 24 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 35:52 | -17 | 23 |
Promotion ~ Eredivisie
Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: )
