Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/09/2025 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Machida GION Stadium (Machida).

J1 League - Round 32
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.15	0.22
Ball Possession
59%	41%
Total shots
15	7
Shots on target
6	1
Big Chances
3	0
Corner Kicks
9	2
Passes
70% (275/395)	61% (178/293)
Yellow Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15	0.22
xG on target (xGOT)
2.35	0.04
Total shots
15	7
Shots on target
6	1
Shots off target
8	4
Blocked Shots
1	2
Shots inside the Box
10	4
Shots outside the Box
5	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
3	0
Corner Kicks
9	2
Touches in opposition box
29	11
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
5	13
Passes
70% (275/395)	61% (178/293)
Long passes
45% (34/75)	27% (21/78)
Passes in final third
59% (89/151)	48% (45/93)
Crosses
28% (9/32)	25% (3/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.75	0.26
Throw-ins
36	21
Fouls
13	5
Tackles
29% (2/7)	75% (9/12)
Duels won
46	66
Clearances
23	54
Interceptions
2	5
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	5
xGOT faced
0.04	2.35
Goals prevented
0.04	1.35

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Tabei R. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Duke M. ↓, Oh Se-Hun ↑,
46', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
49', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
58', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Soma Y. ↑,
58', Masuyama A. ↓, Mochizuki H. ↑,
60', Suzuki Y. ↓, Kudo K. ↑,
60', Iwabuchi H. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
78', Esaka A. ↓, Yanagi T. ↑,
82', Nishimura T. ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
90+3', Hayashi K. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 0, Shoji G. ⚽, Oh Se-Hun (A),

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning

Machida Zelvia
56.6%

Draw
25.3%

Fagiano Okayama
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

24%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

23.5%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.59)	3.73 ↓ (3.91)	5.26 ↓ (5.53)	5.5% (6.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 35.2% – 92%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 2.
Machida Zelvia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Okayama has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Okayama may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Machida Zelvia is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury) Mae H. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Okayama: Sato R. (International duty) Tatsuta Y. (Injury)
There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Okamura D. (Injury)
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:20. (average 1.4:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Fagiano Okayama?

Machida Zelvia has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Machida Zelvia?

Fagiano Okayama has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:

25.05.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:2

05.08.2023 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 1:3

07.05.2023 Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama 1:1

04.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:0

Latest results of Machida Zelvia

23.09.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia 1:1 ✺

16.09.2025 Machida Zelvia - FC Seoul 1:1 ✺

12.09.2025 Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC 1:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia 5:3 ✺

27.08.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers 3:0 ✺

Latest results of Fagiano Okayama

23.09.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC 0:0 ✺

20.09.2025 Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama 4:2 ✺

13.09.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus 0:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama 5:0 ✺

23.08.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	35	20	7	8	53:29	24	67
2	Kashiwa Reysol	35	18	12	5	55:33	22	66
3	Kyoto	35	17	11	7	59:37	22	62
4	Vissel Kobe	35	18	8	9	45:30	15	62
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	35	17	8	10	39:26	13	59
6	Machida	35	16	9	10	49:35	14	57
7	Kawasaki Frontale	35	15	11	9	65:50	15	56
8	Urawa Reds	35	14	11	10	40:36	4	53
9	Gamba Osaka	35	16	5	14	48:52	-4	53
10	Cerezo Osaka	35	13	10	12	54:50	4	49
11	FC Tokyo	35	12	9	14	39:47	-8	45
12	Avispa Fukuoka	35	11	11	13	33:37	-4	44
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	35	11	11	13	39:44	-5	44
14	Verdy	35	11	9	15	22:36	-14	42
15	Okayama	35	11	8	16	31:40	-9	41
16	Nagoya Grampus	35	10	10	15	42:52	-10	40
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	35	10	7	18	39:44	-5	37
18	Yokohama FC	35	8	8	19	23:41	-18	32
19	Shonan Bellmare	35	6	8	21	29:59	-30	26
20	Albirex Niigata ✔	35	4	11	20	32:58	-26	23

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League

Clinched Spots for Teams

Albirex Niigata is Relegated to J2 League