Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/09/2025 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Machida GION Stadium (Machida).

J1 League - Round 32
Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.15	0.22
Ball Possession
59%	41%
Total shots
15	7
Shots on target
6	1
Big Chances
3	0
Corner Kicks
9	2
Passes
70% (275/395)	61% (178/293)
Yellow Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15	0.22
xG on target (xGOT)
2.35	0.04
Total shots
15	7
Shots on target
6	1
Shots off target
8	4
Blocked Shots
1	2
Shots inside the Box
10	4
Shots outside the Box
5	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
3	0
Corner Kicks
9	2
Touches in opposition box
29	11
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	0
Free Kicks
5	13
Passes
70% (275/395)	61% (178/293)
Long passes
45% (34/75)	27% (21/78)
Passes in final third
59% (89/151)	48% (45/93)
Crosses
28% (9/32)	25% (3/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.75	0.26
Throw-ins
36	21
Fouls
13	5
Tackles
29% (2/7)	75% (9/12)
Duels won
46	66
Clearances
23	54
Interceptions
2	5
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	5
xGOT faced
0.04	2.35
Goals prevented
0.04	1.35

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Tabei R. ↓, Kamiya Yuta ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Duke M. ↓, Oh Se-Hun ↑,
46', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
49', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
58', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Soma Y. ↑,
58', Masuyama A. ↓, Mochizuki H. ↑,
60', Suzuki Y. ↓, Kudo K. ↑,
60', Iwabuchi H. ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
78', Esaka A. ↓, Yanagi T. ↑,
82', Nishimura T. ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
90+3', Hayashi K. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 0, Shoji G. ⚽, Oh Se-Hun (A),

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning

Machida Zelvia
56.6%

Draw
25.3%

Fagiano Okayama
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

24%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

23.5%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.59)	3.73 ↓ (3.91)	5.26 ↓ (5.53)	5.5% (6.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama?

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 35.2% – 92%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 2.
Machida Zelvia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Okayama has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Okayama may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Machida Zelvia is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury) Mae H. (Yellow Cards)
There will not play in Okayama: Sato R. (International duty) Tatsuta Y. (Injury)
There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Okamura D. (Injury)
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:20. (average 1.4:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Fagiano Okayama?

Machida Zelvia has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Machida Zelvia?

Fagiano Okayama has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:

25.05.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:2

05.08.2023 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 1:3

07.05.2023 Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama 1:1

04.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:0

Latest results of Machida Zelvia

23.09.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Machida Zelvia 1:1 ✺

16.09.2025 Machida Zelvia - FC Seoul 1:1 ✺

12.09.2025 Machida Zelvia - Yokohama FC 1:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Machida Zelvia 5:3 ✺

27.08.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers 3:0 ✺

Latest results of Fagiano Okayama

23.09.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC 0:0 ✺

20.09.2025 Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama 4:2 ✺

13.09.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus 0:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama 5:0 ✺

23.08.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	33	20	5	8	52:28	24	65
2	Kyoto	33	17	9	7	57:35	22	60
3	Kashiwa Reysol	33	16	12	5	48:33	15	60
4	Vissel Kobe	33	18	6	9	43:28	15	60
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	33	17	7	9	39:23	16	58
6	Machida	33	16	7	10	49:35	14	55
7	Kawasaki Frontale	33	14	11	8	60:45	15	53
8	Urawa Reds	33	14	10	9	40:32	8	52
9	Gamba Osaka	33	15	5	13	46:47	-1	50
10	Cerezo Osaka	33	11	10	12	50:49	1	43
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	33	10	11	12	35:39	-4	41
12	Okayama	33	11	8	14	29:35	-6	41
13	FC Tokyo	33	11	8	14	36:46	-10	41
14	Avispa Fukuoka	33	10	10	13	32:37	-5	40
15	Nagoya Grampus	33	10	9	14	40:48	-8	39
16	Verdy	33	10	9	14	21:35	-14	39
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	33	8	7	18	32:44	-12	31
18	Yokohama FC	33	8	7	18	21:37	-16	31
19	Shonan Bellmare	33	6	7	20	28:57	-29	25
20	Albirex Niigata	33	4	10	19	30:55	-25	22

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League