Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Japan J1 League Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama
Result
1:0
27/09/2025 at 03:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • J1 League - Round 32
  • Where to Watch on TV:
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT
chinaChinaK-Ball
japanJapanDAZN Japan

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.150.22
Ball Possession
59%41%
Total shots
157
Shots on target
61
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
92
Passes
70% (275/395)61% (178/293)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.150.22
xG on target (xGOT)
2.350.04
Total shots
157
Shots on target
61
Shots off target
84
Blocked Shots
12
Shots inside the Box
104
Shots outside the Box
53
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
92
Touches in opposition box
2911
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
513
Passes
70% (275/395)61% (178/293)
Long passes
45% (34/75)27% (21/78)
Passes in final third
59% (89/151)48% (45/93)
Crosses
28% (9/32)25% (3/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.750.26
Throw-ins
3621
Fouls
135
Tackles
29% (2/7)75% (9/12)
Duels won
4666
Clearances
2354
Interceptions
25
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.042.35
Goals prevented
0.041.35

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 31', Tabei R. , Kamiya Yuta ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Duke M. , Oh Se-Hun ,
  • 46', Ichimi K. , Lucao ,
  • 49', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
  • 58', Na Sang-Ho , Soma Y. ,
  • 58', Masuyama A. , Mochizuki H. ,
  • 60', Suzuki Y. , Kudo K. ,
  • 60', Iwabuchi H. , Kimura T. ,
  • 78', Esaka A. , Yanagi T. ,
  • 82', Nishimura T. , Fujio S. ,
  • 90+3', Hayashi K. , Kuwayama K. ,
  • 90+5', 1 - 0, Shoji G. , Oh Se-Hun (A),

Highlights

Official Live

Chances of winning


Machida Zelvia
56.6%
Draw
25.3%
Fagiano Okayama
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
59% 24% 17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3% 23.5% 16.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • Fagiano Okayama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (-1.5%)
  • Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.68
    (1.59)
    3.73
    (3.91)
    5.26
    (5.53)
    5.5%
    (6.4%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Okayama will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 35.2%92%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 12).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 2.
    • Machida Zelvia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Okayama has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Okayama may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Machida Zelvia is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury) Mae H. (Yellow Cards)
    • There will not play in Okayama: Sato R. (International duty) Tatsuta Y. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Okamura D. (Injury)
    • In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:20. (average 1.4:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:
    25.05.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:2
    05.08.2023 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 1:3
    07.05.2023 Machida Zelvia - Fagiano Okayama 1:1
    04.09.2022 Fagiano Okayama - Machida Zelvia 2:0
    Latest results of Machida Zelvia
    Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Kashima Antlers35207853:292467
    2Kashiwa Reysol351812555:332266
    3Kyoto351711759:372262
    4Vissel Kobe35188945:301562
    5Sanfrecce Hiroshima351781039:261359
    6Machida351691049:351457
    7Kawasaki Frontale351511965:501556
    8Urawa Reds3514111040:36453
    9Gamba Osaka351651448:52-453
    10Cerezo Osaka3513101254:50449
    11FC Tokyo351291439:47-845
    12Avispa Fukuoka3511111333:37-444
    13Shimizu S-Pulse3511111339:44-544
    14Verdy351191522:36-1442
    15Okayama351181631:40-941
    16Nagoya Grampus3510101542:52-1040
    17Yokohama F. Marinos351071839:44-537
    18Yokohama FC35881923:41-1832
    19Shonan Bellmare35682129:59-3026
    20Albirex Niigata ✔ 354112032:58-2623

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Albirex Niigata is Relegated to J2 League