Result
1:3
15/03/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 24
- Referee: Masiyev E. (Aze)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Azerbaijan | CBC Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 16', Badalov E. 🟨,
- 19', 1 - 0, Keita S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 22', 1 - 1, Sambou B. ⚽,
- 36', Rashidov N. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 60', Sambou B. ↓, Vargas F. ↑,
- 63', Massoumou D. J. ↓, Akinade I. ↑,
- 69', 1 - 2, Mahmudov E. (Penalty Awarded),
- 73', Badalov E. ↓, Khachayev M. ↑,
- 74', Breno Almeida ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
- 75', Rashidov N. ↓, Manafov T. ↑,
- 75', Sissoko S. ↓, Shahniyarov S. ↑,
- 77', 1 - 3, Mammadov M. ⚽,
- 82', Ahmadov E. 🟨,
- 83', Mathew I. ↓, Kuc E. ↑,
- 83', Faraj I. ↓, Curci A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gabala
21.9% | Draw
27.6% | Neftchi Baku
50.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gabala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Gabala - Neftchi Baku Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.18 ↑
(3.58) |
3.32 ↑
(3.29) |
1.81 ↓
(1.98) |
9.2%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Gabala - Neftchi Baku?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Gabala will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DC - Gabala (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Gabala (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 0.
- Gabala is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Neftchi is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Neftchi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Neftchi is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 13:33. (average 0.7:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gabala won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:16. (average 0.6:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Gabala won against Neftchi Baku?
Gabala has won 2 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Neftchi Baku won against Gabala?
Neftchi Baku has won 8 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gabala - Neftchi Baku were as follows:
10.02.2026
Neftchi Baku
-
Gabala
1:0
26.10.2025
Gabala
-
Neftchi Baku
0:2
29.03.2024
Gabala
-
Neftchi Baku
0:1
28.01.2024
Neftchi Baku
-
Gabala
3:1
05.11.2023
Gabala
-
Neftchi Baku
0:2
Latest results of Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 60:17 | 43 | 62 |
| 2 | Qarabag | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 48:18 | 30 | 52 |
| 3 | Turan Tovuz | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 32:17 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Zira | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 33:27 | 6 | 42 |
| 5 | Araz | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 34:43 | -9 | 39 |
| 6 | Neftci Baku | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 39:22 | 17 | 37 |
| 7 | Sumqayit | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 33:35 | -2 | 32 |
| 8 | Shamakhi | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 24:27 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 18:36 | -18 | 22 |
| 10 | Kapaz | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 21:48 | -27 | 21 |
| 11 | Gabala | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 23:42 | -19 | 16 |
| 12 | Karvan | 25 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 16:49 | -33 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ I Liqa
