Zagłębie Lubin vs Górnik Zabrze – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

11/04/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin).

Ekstraklasa - Round 28
Referee: Malec P. (Pol)
Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 7, Arena Sport 8
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.70	1.05
Ball Possession
31%	69%
Total shots
14	13
Shots on target
5	7
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
3	2
Passes
72% (196/271)	86% (548/638)
Yellow Cards
3	4
Expected Goals (xG)
1.70	1.05
xG on target (xGOT)
2.44	1.66
Total shots
14	13
Shots on target
5	7
Shots off target
6	2
Blocked Shots
3	4
Shots inside the Box
9	5
Shots outside the Box
5	8
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
2	1
Corner Kicks
3	2
Touches in opposition box
29	25
Offsides
0	1
Free Kicks
9	13
Passes
72% (196/271)	86% (548/638)
Long passes
29% (10/35)	52% (32/61)
Passes in final third
50% (43/86)	74% (105/141)
Crosses
21% (3/14)	15% (2/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.55	0.65
Fouls
13	9
Tackles
54% (7/13)	41% (7/17)
Duels won
43	58
Clearances Total
28	13
Interceptions
7	9
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	3
xGOT faced
1.66	2.44
Goals prevented
0.66	0.44

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Furukawa Y. ⚽, Sarapata D. (A),
29', Mroz M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mroz M. ↓, Wdowiak M. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Lawniczak A. ⚽, Dabrowski D. (A),
55', Ismaheel T. ↓, Sow O. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Pienko T. (Pen),
76', 🟨,
77', Josema 🟨,
82', Dabrowski D. ↓, Makowski T. ↑,
82', Kurminowski D. ↓, Adamski R. ↑,
83', Furukawa Y. ↓, Ambros L. ↑,
83', Podolski L. ↓, Bakis S. ↑,
85', Pienko T. 🟨,
86', Pienko T. ↓, Kludka B. ↑,
87', Hladun D. 🟨,
90+1', Zahovic L. ↓, Liseth S. ↑,
90+1', Hellebrand P. ↓, Prebsl F. ↑,
90+2', Liseth S. 🟨,
90+5', Janicki R. 🟨,
90+6', Szmyt K. ↓, Wozniak A. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Zagłębie Lubin
36.1%

Draw
28.6%

Górnik Zabrze
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

28.5%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

28.2%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.4)	3.27 ↓ (3.29)	2.65 ↓ (2.89)	7% (6.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze?

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Górnik Zabrze: 17% – 68.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Górnik Zabrze (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 7).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 3.
Zagłębie Lubin is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Górnik Zabrze is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M. (Injury)
There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Lukoszek K. (Inactive)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 28:28 (average 1.4:1.4).
Including matches at home between the teams Zagłębie Lubin won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 16:17 (average 1.6:1.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Zagłębie Lubin won against Górnik Zabrze?

Zagłębie Lubin has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Górnik Zabrze won against Zagłębie Lubin?

Górnik Zabrze has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze were as follows:

05.10.2024 Górnik Zabrze - Zagłębie Lubin 0:1

08.04.2024 Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze 1:2

02.10.2023 Górnik Zabrze - Zagłębie Lubin 0:2

14.04.2023 Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze 0:2

01.10.2022 Górnik Zabrze - Zagłębie Lubin 2:3

Latest results of Zagłębie Lubin

05.04.2025 Radomiak Radom - Zagłębie Lubin 0:1 ✺

31.03.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Raków Częstochowa 0:2 ✺

22.03.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Chrobry Głogów 1:2 ✺

16.03.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Korona Kielce 1:0 ✺

09.03.2025 GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Lubin 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Górnik Zabrze

06.04.2025 Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw 1:2 ✺

30.03.2025 GKS Katowice - Górnik Zabrze 2:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin 4:0 ✺

09.03.2025 Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze 1:2 ✺

28.02.2025 Górnik Zabrze - Cracovia 0:1 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Wisla Plock	5	4	1	0	8:2	6	13
2	Cracovia	5	3	1	1	11:8	3	10
3	Gornik Zabrze	5	3	0	2	7:4	3	9
4	Jagiellonia	4	3	0	1	10:9	1	9
5	Radomiak Radom	6	2	2	2	11:9	2	8
6	Termalica B-B	6	2	2	2	9:7	2	8
7	Legia	4	2	1	1	5:2	3	7
8	Widzew Lodz	6	2	1	3	8:7	1	7
9	Lech Poznan	4	2	1	1	8:9	-1	7
10	Pogon Szczecin	6	2	1	3	9:13	-4	7
11	Rakow	4	2	0	2	6:7	-1	6
12	Zaglebie	4	1	2	1	9:6	3	5
13	Korona Kielce	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
14	Motor Lublin	4	1	2	1	5:7	-2	5
15	Arka Gdynia	5	1	2	2	4:7	-3	5
16	GKS Katowice	5	1	1	3	7:10	-3	4
17	Piast Gliwice	3	0	1	2	0:3	-3	1
18	Lechia Gdansk	5	0	2	3	11:17	-6	-3

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1