Result
3:2
23/02/2026 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 6
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.28 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (297/386) | 74% (254/342) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.28 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.60 | 1.35 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (297/386) | 74% (254/342) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (26/62) | 40% (18/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 62% (64/104) | 47% (34/73) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (1/5) | 13% (2/16) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.32 | 0.61 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 20 | 33 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (11/15) | 47% (9/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.35 | 1.60 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.65 | -1.40 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 1)
- 4', Ramos M. 🟨,
- 5', Bogado G. 🟨,
- 11', 1 - 0, Maggi I. ⚽,
- 13', 1 - 1, Lopez M. ⚽, Mino Amarilla C. E. (A),
- 22', 2 - 1, Quintana S. ⚽, Pereira K. (A),
- 40', 3 - 1, Quintana S. ⚽,
- 43', Benitez F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Franco T. ↓, Diaz S. ↑,
- 52', Ramos M. 🟨,
- 62', Ramirez Perdesen C. G. ↓, Maidana A. ↑,
- 62', Mino Amarilla C. E. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
- 62', Ramirez I. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
- 71', Pereira K. ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
- 71', Benitez F. ↓, Bobadilla F. ↑,
- 75', Gomez M. ↓, Llano J. ↑,
- 75', Fernandez F. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
- 90', 3 - 2, Servio G. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90', Servio G. 🟨,
- 90+1', Maggi I. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
- 90+1', Benitez A. ↓, Maldonado S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Sportivo Luqueño
39.3% | Draw
28.5% | Guaraní Asuncion
32.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sportivo Luqueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sportivo Luqueño that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+5%)
Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.3 ↓
(2.72) |
3.26 ↑
(3.25) |
2.94 ↑
(2.53) |
8.2%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Sportivo Luqueño will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sportivo Luqueño: 29% – 96%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Sportivo Luqueño (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Guaraní (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Sportivo Luqueño (votes: 2 - 40%). Guaraní (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 6).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 1.
- Recent performances by Sportivo Luqueño have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Guaraní is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Sportivo Luqueño may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Sportivo Luqueño might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:31. (average 1.2:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Luqueño won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.3:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Sportivo Luqueño won against Guaraní Asuncion?
Sportivo Luqueño has won 6 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guaraní Asuncion won against Sportivo Luqueño?
Guaraní Asuncion has won 7 of their last 14 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion were as follows:
30.11.2025
Guaraní Asuncion
-
Sportivo Luqueño
2:1
05.09.2025
Sportivo Luqueño
-
Guaraní Asuncion
2:3
24.05.2025
Guaraní Asuncion
-
Sportivo Luqueño
2:1
23.03.2025
Sportivo Luqueño
-
Guaraní Asuncion
0:1
03.12.2024
Sportivo Luqueño
-
Guaraní Asuncion
1:0
Latest results of Sportivo Luqueño
Latest results of Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Recoleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:5 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Ameliano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:5 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Cerro Porteno | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:6 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7:6 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Sp. Luqueno | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:10 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Guarani | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Libertad Asuncion | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6:9 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | 2 de Mayo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:12 | -9 | 2 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4:13 | -9 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
