Result
2:3
05/09/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 11
- Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.88 | 1.15 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 39% | 61% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (163/257) | 76% (302/399) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.88 | 1.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.80 | 1.77 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 63% (163/257) | 76% (302/399) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 29% (19/65) | 45% (25/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 48% (38/79) | 61% (64/105) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (4/15) | 25% (5/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 0.84 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 22 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 52% (11/21) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 65 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 35 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.77 | 1.80 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.23 | -0.20 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 2', Benitez Cabrera A. J. 🟨,
- 8', Perez A. 🟨,
- 8', Villalba A. 🟨,
- 9', 1 - 0, Perez M. (Pen),
- 18', Zaracho S. 🟨,
- 33', 2 - 0, Benitez F. ⚽, Perez M. (A),
- 45+2', Maiz A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 3)
- 46', Roman Torales F. J. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
- 46', Maldonado S. ↓, Suarez M. ↑,
- 47', Quintana S. 🟨,
- 51', 2 - 1, Ramirez I. ⚽,
- 65', Diaz S. ↓, Baez J. ↑,
- 66', 2 - 2, Maidana A. ⚽,
- 68', Maiz A. ↓, Mendieta W. ↑,
- 71', 2 - 3, Jhon Sanchez ⚽,
- 74', Comas L. ↓, Santander F. ↑,
- 74', Perez M. ↓, Pereira K. ↑,
- 76', Benitez F. 🟨,
- 83', Ramirez I. 🟨,
- 83', Gonzalez W. ↓, Ramos J. ↑,
- 83', Ramirez I. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
- 86', Ramos J. 🟨,
- 90', Jhon Sanchez ↓, Perez D. ↑,
Chances of winning
Sportivo Luqueño
29.5% | Draw
28.8% | Guaraní Asuncion
41.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sportivo Luqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (+3.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3%)
Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.17 ↑
(2.78) |
3.32 ↑
(3.25) |
2.35 ↓
(2.38) |
4.3%
(8.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion?
Users Predictions:
Guaraní Asuncion will win
(12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Guaraní Asuncion will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 2.
- Recent performances by Sportivo Luqueño have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Guaraní is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Guaraní may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Guaraní is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Luqueño won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:29. (average 1.1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Luqueño won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Sportivo Luqueño won against Guaraní Asuncion?
Sportivo Luqueño has won 6 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guaraní Asuncion won against Sportivo Luqueño?
Guaraní Asuncion has won 5 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion were as follows:
24.05.2025
Guaraní Asuncion
-
Sportivo Luqueño
2:1
23.03.2025
Sportivo Luqueño
-
Guaraní Asuncion
0:1
03.12.2024
Sportivo Luqueño
-
Guaraní Asuncion
1:0
28.10.2024
Guaraní Asuncion
-
Sportivo Luqueño
2:2
16.08.2024
Sportivo Luqueño
-
Guaraní Asuncion
2:1
Latest results of Sportivo Luqueño
Latest results of Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guarani | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 31:12 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | Cerro Porteno | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 23:16 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 16:11 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | 2 de Mayo | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15:17 | -2 | 19 |
| 6 | Recoleta | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20:19 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | General Caballero JLM | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14:18 | -4 | 18 |
| 8 | Libertad Asuncion | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15:11 | 4 | 17 |
| 9 | Sp. Luqueno | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18:21 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Olimpia Asuncion | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 17:24 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Ameliano | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 13:23 | -10 | 11 |
| 12 | Atl. Tembetary | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14:26 | -12 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
