Result
1:3
10/05/2025 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 34
- Referee: Gaillouste P. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.73 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (401/469) | 88% (470/534) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.73 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.78 | 1.35 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (401/469) | 88% (470/534) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 55% (21/38) | 65% (32/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 67% (74/111) | 80% (115/144) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (5/17) | 29% (5/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.83 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 11 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (5/10) | 48% (10/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.35 | 0.78 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.65 | -0.22 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 17', Mboup P. 🟨,
- 40', 0 - 1, Nair S. ⚽, Ghrieb R. (A),
- 43', 1 - 1, Mille A. ⚽, Koudou T. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 53', Mboup P. 🟨,
- 56', 1 - 2, Picard H. ⚽, Ghrieb R. (A),
- 66', Sidibe K. 🟨,
- 67', Hemia A. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
- 68', Sidibe K. ↓, Riou M. ↑,
- 69', Kouassi L.X. ↓, Meddah D. ↑,
- 69', Boutaib K. ↓, Arconte T. ↑,
- 77', Ghrieb R. ↓, Guendouz S. ↑,
- 77', Siwe J. ↓, Sagna A. ↑,
- 78', Obiang J. ↓, Kalulu J. ↑,
- 78', Beusnard S. ↓, Chahiri M. ↑,
- 81', 1 - 3, Sagna A. ⚽, Picard H. (A),
- 82', Louiserre D. ↓, Luvambo T. ↑,
- 85', Picard H. 🟨,
- 86', Ngom O. ↓, Gomes T. ↑,
Chances of winning
Pau
25.7% | Draw
24.2% | Guingamp
50.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pau's form might have worsened.Guingamp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guingamp's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+5.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (-7.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guingamp, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Pau - Guingamp Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.62 ↑
(2.88) |
3.92 ↑
(3.46) |
1.9 ↓
(2.31) |
5.9%
(6.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Pau - Guingamp?
Users Predictions:
Guingamp will win
(20 of 23 users predict this - 86.96%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.2% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Guingamp will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pau won 2.
- Pau has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Guingamp is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Pau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Guingamp might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Pau: Bobichon A.
(Ankle Injury)
Boutaib K.
(Inactive)
Chahiri M.
(Inactive)
Gaspar J.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Guingamp: Maronnier L.
(Inactive)
Mendes J. A.
(Inactive)
Ourega D.
(Inactive)
Phiri L.
(Inactive)
Riou M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Pau won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 1:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Pau won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Pau won against Guingamp?
Pau has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Guingamp won against Pau?
Guingamp has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pau - Guingamp were as follows:
18.10.2024
Guingamp
-
Pau
0:1
27.04.2024
Pau
-
Guingamp
1:2
26.08.2023
Guingamp
-
Pau
4:0
22.04.2023
Pau
-
Guingamp
2:1
Latest results of Guingamp
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Nancy | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Troyes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Clermont | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | St Etienne | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | 4 |
| 5 | Red Star | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:4 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Montpellier | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Reims | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Pau FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Amiens | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Le Mans | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Annecy | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Laval | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5:5 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Dunkerque | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:7 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Rodez | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | -4 | 2 |
| 15 | Bastia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Grenoble | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:5 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Guingamp | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Boulogne | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
