Result
2:2
29/09/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Veikkausliiga - Championship Group
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Ruutu+ |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.44 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (526/602) | 87% (470/543) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.44 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.01 | 1.51 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 17 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (526/602) | 87% (470/543) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 40% (21/52) | 27% (12/45) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (112/142) | 75% (96/128) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 19% (3/16) | 13% (1/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 1.30 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 9 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 62% (13/21) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.51 | 1.01 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.49 | -0.99 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, Veteli J. ⚽, Maenpaa A. (A),
- 45+5', 1 - 1, Lingman L. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Ricardo Friedrich ↓, Henriksson E. ↑,
- 48', 2 - 1, Ring A. ⚽, Pukki T. (A),
- 60', Vaisanen S. 🟨,
- 63', Kanga J. ↓, Stjopin M. ↑,
- 63', Riski Ro. ↓, Akinyemi A. ↑,
- 65', 2 - 2, Stjopin M. ⚽, Akinyemi A. (A),
- 70', Michel B. ↓, Besuijen V. ↑,
- 70', Pukki T. ↓, Tahiri A. ↑,
- 75', Lingman L. ↓, Mentu P. ↑,
- 78', Hostikka S. 🟨,
- 78', Soderback M. ↓, Ala-Myllymaki L. ↑,
- 82', Kanellopoulos G. ↓, Kallinen J. ↑,
- 90+1', Jukkola O. 🟨,
- 90+3', Ala-Myllymaki L. 🟨,
- 90+5', Ala-Myllymaki L. ↓, Hytonen T. ↑,
Chances of winning
HJK
38.5% | Draw
24.6% | Ilves
36.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
HJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that HJK's form might have worsened.Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilves's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for HJK than the current prediction. (+8.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for HJK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-7.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
HJK - Ilves Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.59 ↑
(2.06) |
4 ↓
(4.03) |
2.61 ↓
(3.13) |
2%
(5.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for HJK - Ilves?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. HJK will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Ilves will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for HJK: 47.7% – 95.1%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. HJK (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HJK won 1.
- HJK is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Ilves is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- HJK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in HJK: Ost J.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HJK won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:21. (average 1.8:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, HJK won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:7. (average 1.9:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has HJK won against Ilves?
HJK has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ilves won against HJK?
Ilves has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between HJK - Ilves were as follows:
11.08.2025
HJK
-
Ilves
5:1
05.04.2025
Ilves
-
HJK
3:2
28.09.2024
HJK
-
Ilves
0:1
06.07.2024
Ilves
-
HJK
3:0
25.05.2024
HJK
-
Ilves
1:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga Table
Championship Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ilves | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 56:33 | 23 | 52 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 25 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 49:22 | 27 | 50 |
| 3 | KuPS | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 48:29 | 19 | 50 |
| 4 | HJK | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 64:34 | 30 | 47 |
| 5 | SJK | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 52:38 | 14 | 45 |
| 6 | Gnistan | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 36:48 | -12 | 28 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
