Result
2:1
23/03/2026 at 17:10 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Apertura - Round 13
- Referee: Melendez Panneflek A. J. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.50 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (274/335) | 71% (151/213) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.32 | 1.50 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 0.33 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 20 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (274/335) | 71% (151/213) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (26/60) | 44% (24/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (75/105) | 66% (53/80) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 50% (6/12) | 35% (9/26) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 1.20 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 12 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 7 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 100% (7/7) | 63% (5/8) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 23 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 31 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.33 | 0.51 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.67 | -1.49 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 19', Velasquez Y. 🟨,
- 29', Ichazo S. 🟨,
- 31', Serna A. 🟨,
- 33', 1 - 0, Palacios L. ⚽, Rodallega H. (A),
- 35', Moreno D. 🟨,
- 44', Lovera M. 🟨,
- 45+4', Moreno D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Mena Perea E. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
- 46', Velasquez Y. ↓, Torres D. ↑,
- 52', Torres D. 🟨,
- 54', Serna A. 🟨,
- 56', Fabra F. 🟨,
- 58', Montano J. ↓, Loboa H. ↑,
- 58', Fabra F. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
- 60', 2 - 0, Palacios H. ⚽,
- 64', Palacios L. ↓, Bustos N. ↑,
- 65', Lovera M. ↓, Perlaza Perea Y. A. ↑,
- 70', 2 - 1, Chaverra F. ⚽,
- 77', Mafla C. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
- 90+3', Fernandez O. ↓, Mosquera E. ↑,
- 90+3', Loboa H. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
- 90+4', Palacios H. 🟨,
Highlights
https://tinyurl.com/9fh39ua5
Chances of winning
Independiente Santa Fe
36.8% | Draw
30.2% | Independiente Medellín
33% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Santa Fe's form might have worsened.Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Independiente Medellín's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+13.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Santa Fe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-9.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.52 ↑
(1.85) |
3.09 ↓
(3.61) |
2.85 ↓
(3.96) |
7.3%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Santa Fe will win (votes: 12 - 75%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Santa Fe: 53.8% – 96.2%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Santa Fe (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.25 - Ind Medellín (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Santa Fe (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ind Medellín (votes: 2 - 66.7%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 2.
- Santa Fe has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Ind Medellín is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Santa Fe might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Santa Fe won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Santa Fe won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Santa Fe won against Independiente Medellín?
Independiente Santa Fe has won 3 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente Medellín won against Independiente Santa Fe?
Independiente Medellín has won 2 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín were as follows:
20.10.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Independiente Santa Fe
1:1
01.10.2025
Independiente Santa Fe
-
Independiente Medellín
0:3
24.09.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Independiente Santa Fe
1:2
29.06.2025
Independiente Medellín
-
Independiente Santa Fe
1:2
24.06.2025
Independiente Santa Fe
-
Independiente Medellín
0:0
Latest results of Independiente Santa Fe
Latest results of Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional ✔ | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 30:11 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21:17 | 4 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 24:13 | 11 | 27 |
| 4 | Once Caldas | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 26:19 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Junior | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 25 |
| 6 | America De Cali | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19:12 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Dep. Cali | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 17:13 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Aguilas | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 22 |
| 9 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18:20 | -2 | 22 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25:17 | 8 | 21 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 16:14 | 2 | 20 |
| 12 | Bucaramanga | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:14 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Santa Fe | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:19 | -1 | 19 |
| 14 | Ind. Medellin | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19:19 | 0 | 17 |
| 15 | Fortaleza | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17:23 | -6 | 16 |
| 16 | Cucuta | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21:27 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Alianza | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 10:22 | -12 | 15 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 14:28 | -14 | 14 |
| 19 | Chico | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11:21 | -10 | 11 |
| 20 | Pereira | 15 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 14:29 | -15 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Atl. Nacional is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs )
