Orenburg vs Krasnodar: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

17/05/2025 at 07:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Gazovik Stadium (Orenburg).

: Premier League - Round 29

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.87	2.05
Ball Possession
44%	56%
Total shots
16	21
Shots on target
7	5
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
6	2
Passes
70% (215/305)	80% (305/382)
Yellow Cards
6	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.87	2.05
xG on target (xGOT)
1.17	1.40
Total shots
16	21
Shots on target
7	5
Shots off target
2	10
Blocked Shots
7	6
Shots inside the Box
9	15
Shots outside the Box
7	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
1	2
Corner Kicks
6	2
Touches in opposition box
27	42
Accurate through passes
1	0
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
13	13
Passes
70% (215/305)	80% (305/382)
Long passes
34% (18/53)	57% (31/54)
Passes in final third
57% (49/86)	69% (83/121)
Crosses
19% (4/21)	6% (1/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.78	1.00
Throw-ins
13	20
Fouls
13	13
Tackles
74% (14/19)	50% (5/10)
Duels won
49	56
Clearances
36	31
Interceptions
13	13
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
1	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	6
xGOT faced
1.40	1.17
Goals prevented
-0.60	0.17

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, Mansilla B. ⚽, Zotov G. (A),
9', Tataev A. 🟨,
29', 1 - 1, Cordoba J. ⚽,
45+2', Zotov G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gurluk E. ↓, Marin J. ↑,
46', Syshchenko M. ↓, Khotulev D. ↑,
47', Gonzalez G. ↓, Petrov S. ↑,
51', 1 - 2, Olaza L. ⚽,
57', Khotulev D. 🟨,
62', Joao Batxi ↓, Olusegun O. ↑,
62', Saharkhizan S. ↓, Savelyev M. ↑,
71', Zotov G. ↓, Karatas K. ↑,
79', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Kovalenko A. ↑,
80', Victor Sa ↓, Cobnan M. D. ↑,
81', Prokhin D. 🟨,
85', Cordoba J. 🟨,
85', 🟨,
86', Sysuev N. 🟨,
90', Spertsyan E. ↓, Kozlov D. ↑,
90+3', Cobnan M. D. 🟨,
90+6', Kozlov D. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Orenburg
17.9%

Draw
22%

Krasnodar
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.9%

21.3%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.4%

20.6%

64.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Krasnodar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krasnodar than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Orenburg - Krasnodar Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.35 ↓ (6.2)	4.35 ↓ (4.62)	1.59 ↑ (1.57)	4.7% (1.5%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

What is the prediction for Orenburg - Krasnodar?

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Krasnodar will win (votes: 15 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Krasnodar: 100% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Krasnodar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ FNL and 1).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 1.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
In this match, Krasnodar is a strong favorite.
There will not play in Orenburg: Florentin G. (Injury) Malykh A. (Injury) Moskvichev B. (Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Orenburg: Kasimov A. (Inactive)
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 18:23. (average 1.3:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Krasnodar?

Orenburg has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Krasnodar won against Orenburg?

Krasnodar has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Orenburg - Krasnodar were as follows:

03.11.2024 Krasnodar - Orenburg 4:0

03.12.2023 Krasnodar - Orenburg 2:1

12.08.2023 Orenburg - Krasnodar 0:2

13.11.2022 Orenburg - Krasnodar 5:1

Latest results of Orenburg

10.05.2025 Orenburg - Khimki 1:1 ✺

03.05.2025 Lokomotiv Moscow - Orenburg 1:1 ✺

27.04.2025 Krylya Sovetov - Orenburg 2:0 ✺

19.04.2025 Orenburg - Dynamo Makhachkala 2:1 ✺

12.04.2025 Orenburg - CSKA Moscow 0:2 ✺

Latest results of Krasnodar

10.05.2025 CSKA Moscow - Krasnodar 1:0 ✺

03.05.2025 Krasnodar - Rubin Kazan 2:1 ✺

25.04.2025 Dynamo Makhachkala - Krasnodar 2:3 ✺

19.04.2025 Krasnodar - Akhmat Grozny 3:1 ✺

13.04.2025 Zenit - Krasnodar 4:1 ✺

Russian Premier League Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Baltika	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Torpedo Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	FK Rostov	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Zenit	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Spartak Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	CSKA Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Lokomotiv Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Dynamo Moscow	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Rubin Kazan	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Krylya Sovetov	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Akhmat Grozny	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Krasnodar	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	Pari NN	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Akron Togliatti	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Dynamo Makhachkala	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Sochi	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL

Which TV channels are streaming of Orenburg - Krasnodar?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Asia	Q Sport Asia
Belarus	Belarus 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 3