Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Japan J1 League Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga
Result
1:1
12/09/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • J1 League - Round 29
  • Where to Watch on TV:
chinaChinaK-Ball
japanJapanDAZN Japan

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.060.56
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
275
Shots on target
53
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
61
Passes
79% (315/400)64% (170/267)
Yellow Cards
03
Expected Goals (xG)
3.060.56
xG on target (xGOT)
1.711.18
Total shots
275
Shots on target
53
Shots off target
131
Blocked Shots
91
Shots inside the Box
183
Shots outside the Box
92
Hit the Woodwork
20
Big Chances
40
Corner Kicks
61
Touches in opposition box
4913
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
169
Passes
79% (315/400)64% (170/267)
Long passes
56% (40/72)37% (24/65)
Passes in final third
73% (148/203)53% (36/68)
Crosses
31% (11/36)22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.740.30
Throw-ins
3117
Fouls
916
Tackles
33% (4/12)62% (8/13)
Duels won
6453
Clearances
2258
Interceptions
126
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.181.71
Goals prevented
0.180.71

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Yamada F. , Okugawa M. ,
  • 46', Maeda N. , Kinoshita K. ,
  • 56', Takeda S. , Leo Gomes ,
  • 56', Sugai H. , Fukuda S. ,
  • 61', Kato M. , Germain V. ,
  • 63', 1 - 0, Sasaki S. ,
  • 67', Rafael Elias 🟨,
  • 72', Hirato T. , Marco Tulio ,
  • 75', Fukuoka S. , Nakano R. ,
  • 86', Marco Tulio 🟨,
  • 86', Germain R. , Kawabe H. ,
  • 88', 1 - 1, Rafael Elias , Marco Tulio (A),
  • 90+1', Higashi S. , Arai N. ,
  • 90+1', Nakajima Y. , Araki H. ,
  • 90+4', Ota G. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Sanfrecce Hiroshima
50.9%
Draw
25.5%
Kyoto Sanga
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.6% 25.6% 22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56% 27.8% 21%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)
  • Kyoto Sanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (-2.5%)
  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.85
    (1.82)
    3.68
    (3.67)
    4.01
    (4.13)
    6.2%
    (6.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga?
  • Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Hiroshima will win (votes: 7 - 30.4%). Kyoto will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Kyoto: 41%80.8%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 2 - 50%). Kyoto (votes: 2 - 50%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 2.
    • Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
    • Kyoto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Hiroshima has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, Hiroshima is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Kyoto: Joao Pedro (Forearm injury) Yonemoto T. (Foot Injury)
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Hiroshima won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga were as follows:
    29.03.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0
    03.11.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga 0:1
    19.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:5
    23.09.2023 Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0
    04.06.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga 3:1
    Latest results of Sanfrecce Hiroshima
    Latest results of Kyoto Sanga
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Kashima Antlers33205852:282465
    2Kyoto33179757:352260
    3Kashiwa Reysol331612548:331560
    4Vissel Kobe33186943:281560
    5Sanfrecce Hiroshima33177939:231658
    6Machida331671049:351455
    7Kawasaki Frontale331411860:451553
    8Urawa Reds331410940:32852
    9Gamba Osaka331551346:47-150
    10Cerezo Osaka3311101250:49143
    11Shimizu S-Pulse3310111235:39-441
    12Okayama331181429:35-641
    13FC Tokyo331181436:46-1041
    14Avispa Fukuoka3310101332:37-540
    15Nagoya Grampus331091440:48-839
    16Verdy331091421:35-1439
    17Yokohama F. Marinos33871832:44-1231
    18Yokohama FC33871821:37-1631
    19Shonan Bellmare33672028:57-2925
    20Albirex Niigata334101930:55-2522

          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
          Relegation ~ J2 League