Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kyoto Sanga – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

12/09/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima (Hiroshima).

J1 League - Round 29
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
3.06	0.56
Ball Possession
61%	39%
Total shots
27	5
Shots on target
5	3
Big Chances
4	0
Corner Kicks
6	1
Passes
79% (315/400)	64% (170/267)
Yellow Cards
0	3
Expected Goals (xG)
3.06	0.56
xG on target (xGOT)
1.71	1.18
Total shots
27	5
Shots on target
5	3
Shots off target
13	1
Blocked Shots
9	1
Shots inside the Box
18	3
Shots outside the Box
9	2
Hit the Woodwork
2	0
Big Chances
4	0
Corner Kicks
6	1
Touches in opposition box
49	13
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	0
Free Kicks
16	9
Passes
79% (315/400)	64% (170/267)
Long passes
56% (40/72)	37% (24/65)
Passes in final third
73% (148/203)	53% (36/68)
Crosses
31% (11/36)	22% (2/9)
Expected assists (xA)
1.74	0.30
Throw-ins
31	17
Fouls
9	16
Tackles
33% (4/12)	62% (8/13)
Duels won
64	53
Clearances
22	58
Interceptions
12	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	4
xGOT faced
1.18	1.71
Goals prevented
0.18	0.71

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Yamada F. ↓, Okugawa M. ↑,
46', Maeda N. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
56', Takeda S. ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
56', Sugai H. ↓, Fukuda S. ↑,
61', Kato M. ↓, Germain V. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Sasaki S. ⚽,
67', Rafael Elias 🟨,
72', Hirato T. ↓, Marco Tulio ↑,
75', Fukuoka S. ↓, Nakano R. ↑,
86', Marco Tulio 🟨,
86', Germain R. ↓, Kawabe H. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Rafael Elias ⚽, Marco Tulio (A),
90+1', Higashi S. ↓, Arai N. ↑,
90+1', Nakajima Y. ↓, Araki H. ↑,
90+4', Ota G. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
50.9%

Draw
25.5%

Kyoto Sanga
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.6%

25.6%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

27.8%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Kyoto Sanga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.82)	3.68 ↑ (3.67)	4.01 ↓ (4.13)	6.2% (6.4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga?

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Hiroshima will win (votes: 7 - 30.4%). Kyoto will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kyoto: 41% – 80.8%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 4 high ROI users predict this event. Hiroshima (votes: 2 - 50%). Kyoto (votes: 2 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 2.
Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
Kyoto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Hiroshima has had a series of away games.
In this match, Hiroshima is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Kyoto: Joao Pedro (Forearm injury) Yonemoto T. (Foot Injury)
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hiroshima won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Hiroshima won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Sanfrecce Hiroshima won against Kyoto Sanga?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Kyoto Sanga won against Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Kyoto Sanga has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga were as follows:

29.03.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0

03.11.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga 0:1

19.05.2024 Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:5

23.09.2023 Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0

04.06.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga 3:1

Latest results of Sanfrecce Hiroshima

07.09.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shonan Bellmare 4:1 ✺

03.09.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3:2 ✺

31.08.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:1 ✺

27.08.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2:4 ✺

23.08.2025 Tokyo Verdy - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:3 ✺

Latest results of Kyoto Sanga

30.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama 5:0 ✺

24.08.2025 Tokyo - Kyoto Sanga 0:4 ✺

16.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Tokyo Verdy 1:0 ✺

10.08.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga 1:2 ✺

06.08.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kyoto	29	16	7	6	53:31	22	55
2	Kashima Antlers	29	17	4	8	44:27	17	55
3	Kashiwa Reysol	29	15	9	5	42:28	14	54
4	Vissel Kobe	30	16	6	8	37:26	11	54
5	Machida	30	15	6	9	46:32	14	51
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	30	15	6	9	35:21	14	51
7	Kawasaki Frontale	29	13	9	7	53:38	15	48
8	Urawa Reds	29	13	8	8	39:31	8	47
9	Gamba Osaka	30	13	4	13	39:44	-5	43
10	Cerezo Osaka	29	11	9	9	46:41	5	42
11	Okayama	29	11	6	12	26:29	-3	39
12	Avispa Fukuoka	29	9	10	10	30:32	-2	37
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	29	9	9	11	32:36	-4	36
14	FC Tokyo	29	9	7	13	31:42	-11	34
15	Nagoya Grampus	29	8	8	13	35:42	-7	32
16	Verdy	29	8	8	13	16:29	-13	32
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	29	6	7	16	26:38	-12	25
18	Shonan Bellmare	29	6	7	16	26:50	-24	25
19	Yokohama FC	29	6	6	17	19:36	-17	24
20	Albirex Niigata	29	4	8	17	27:49	-22	20

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League