Libertad Asuncion vs Alianza Lima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Libertadores
Result
2:2
27/05/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6
  • Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, FOX Sports 3
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
belarusBelarusOkko Sport
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Premium 2
brazilBrazilClaro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chileChileESPN Premium
colombiaColombiaESPN 5
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
germanyGermanySportdigital+
indonesiaIndonesiaMola TV
israelIsraelSport 3
italyItalyComo TV
mexicoMexicoDisney+
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
peruPeruDisney+, Fox Sports 2
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 2
south-americaSouth-americaESPN 5 South
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.781.24
Ball Possession
62%38%
Total shots
1313
Shots on target
44
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
64
Passes
81% (419/518)71% (225/317)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
1.781.24
xG on target (xGOT)
1.341.99
Total shots
1313
Shots on target
44
Shots off target
89
Blocked Shots
10
Shots inside the Box
87
Shots outside the Box
56
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
2911
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
49
Passes
81% (419/518)71% (225/317)
Long passes
39% (24/61)38% (23/61)
Passes in final third
59% (83/140)60% (45/75)
Crosses
29% (8/28)27% (3/11)
Expected assists (xA)
0.820.37
Throw-ins
2124
Fouls
94
Tackles
64% (9/14)36% (5/14)
Duels won
3640
Clearances
1836
Interceptions
88
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
22
xGOT faced
1.991.34
Goals prevented
-0.01-0.66

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 28', 0 - 1, Paolo Guerrero ⚽, Castillo J. (A),
  • 40', Jacquet M. 🟨,
  • 42', 0 - 2, Castillo E. ⚽, Cari P. (A),
  • 45+3', Garces R. 🟨,
  • 45+5', 1 - 2, Cardozo O. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Caballero H. ↓, Campuzano A. ↑,
  • 62', Cari P. ↓, Aguirre G. ↑,
  • 63', 2 - 2, Ramirez I. ⚽,
  • 68', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
  • 68', Trauco M. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
  • 77', Quevedo K. ↓, Velasquez J. ↑,
  • 81', Lagos R. 🟨,
  • 82', Cardozo O. 🟨,
  • 83', Alcaraz A. ↓, Villalba R. ↑,
  • 89', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Sanabria L. ↑,
  • 89', Fernandez M. ↓, Villalba P. ↑,
  • 89', Aguilar G. ↓, Santa C. R. ↑,

Chances of winning


Libertad Asuncion
38%		Draw
31.2%		Alianza Lima
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
53.2% 27.1% 19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2% 25.1% 21.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Asuncion's form might have worsened.
  • Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+11.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-9.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Lima, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.46 ↑
    (1.76)    		 3.07 ↓
    (3.45)    		 3.12 ↓
    (4.75)    		 5.2%
    (6.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 35% – 88%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 2 - 50%). Alianza Lima (votes: 2 - 50%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH -0.5 - Alianza Lima (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -1 - Alianza Lima (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Alianza Lima (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • DNB - Alianza Lima (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Libertad (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Alianza Lima (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Libertad is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Libertad is a strong favorite.
    • There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J. (Injury) Cantero A. (Muscle Injury) Ceppelini P. (Suspended) Lavandeira Hernandez P. (Tendon Injury) Zambrano C. (Red Card)
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).
    • Including home match between the teams, Libertad won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima were as follows:
    01.04.2025 Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion 0:1
    23.05.2023 Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion 1:2
    20.04.2023 Libertad Asuncion - Alianza Lima 1:2
    Latest results of Libertad Asuncion
    24.05.2025 Libertad Asuncion - General Caballero JLM 1:0
    21.05.2025 Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion 1:1 ✺
    17.05.2025 Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense 1:1
    14.05.2025 São Paulo - Libertad Asuncion 1:1 ✺
    11.05.2025 Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion 1:0
    Latest results of Alianza Lima
    23.05.2025 Sport Boys - Alianza Lima 0:1 ✺
    19.05.2025 Alianza Lima - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco 2:0
    15.05.2025 Talleres de Córdoba - Alianza Lima 2:0 ✺
    10.05.2025 Atlético Grau - Alianza Lima 1:1 ✺
    06.05.2025 Alianza Lima - São Paulo 0:2 ✺
    Copa Libertadores Table
    Group Stage

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ32107:257
    2Estudiantes L.P31204:315
    3Ind. Medellin20112:5-31
    4Cusco20021:4-30


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Deportes Tolima31114:314
    2Nacional31116:604
    3U. de Deportes31114:404
    4Coquimbo31113:4-14


    Group C
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. Rivadavia22003:126
    2La Guaira20201:102
    3Fluminense20111:2-11
    4Bolivar20111:2-11


    Group D
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Boca Juniors32015:236
    2U. Catolica32015:416
    3Cruzeiro32013:216
    4Barcelona SC30031:6-50


    Group E
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Corinthians22004:046
    2Platense32014:406
    3Penarol20112:3-11
    4Santa Fe30122:5-31


    Group F
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Sporting Cristal32014:226
    2Palmeiras31204:315
    3Cerro Porteno31112:204
    4Junior30121:4-31


    Group G
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1LDU Quito32013:126
    2Lanus32012:116
    3Mirassol32013:216
    4Always Ready30030:4-40


    Group H
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Rosario Central32104:047
    2Ind. del Valle32106:337
    3Universidad Central31024:7-33
    4Libertad Asuncion30033:7-40

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