Result
3:2
25/04/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 18
- Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.03 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (243/312) | 80% (346/430) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.21 | 1.03 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.49 | 1.28 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 26 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 78% (243/312) | 80% (346/430) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (25/55) | 54% (38/70) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (68/106) | 68% (92/135) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (3/7) | 27% (6/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.34 | 0.81 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 16 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (9/17) | 45% (5/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 40 | 24 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.28 | 1.49 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.72 | -1.51 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 30', 1 - 0, Carrizo F. ⚽,
- 38', 2 - 0, Fretes A. ⚽,
- 39', Olveira G. 🟨,
- 45+3', Alfaro J. F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Fretes A. 🟨,
- 50', 3 - 0, Aguilar G. ⚽,
- 59', Campuzano A. 🟥,
- 59', Gimenez N. 🟨,
- 66', 3 - 1, Vargas G. ⚽,
- 68', Franco I. 🟨,
- 71', 3 - 2, Gamarra M. ⚽,
- 73', Ortiz R. 🟨,
- 76', 🟨,
- 80', Viera D. 🟨,
- 88', Caceres R. 🟨,
- 90+3', Morinigo Acosta R. M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Libertad Asuncion
22.9% | Draw
27.7% | Olimpia Asuncion
49.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Libertad Asuncion's form might have worsened.Olimpia Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Olimpia Asuncion's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+10.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (-12.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olimpia Asuncion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.08 ↑
(2.73) |
3.36 ↑
(3.22) |
1.89 ↓
(2.54) |
7.2%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 1.
- Libertad is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Olimpia is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In this match, Olimpia is the team to beat.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 33:22. (average 1.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:7. (average 1.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Asuncion won against Olimpia Asuncion?
Libertad Asuncion has won 7 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Olimpia Asuncion won against Libertad Asuncion?
Olimpia Asuncion has won 5 of their last 16 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion were as follows:
25.02.2026
Olimpia Asuncion
-
Libertad Asuncion
1:0
01.11.2025
Libertad Asuncion
-
Olimpia Asuncion
2:2
17.08.2025
Olimpia Asuncion
-
Libertad Asuncion
0:0
21.05.2025
Olimpia Asuncion
-
Libertad Asuncion
1:1
15.03.2025
Libertad Asuncion
-
Olimpia Asuncion
2:1
Latest results of Libertad Asuncion
Latest results of Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 28:12 | 16 | 39 |
| 2 | Cerro Porteno | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 26:14 | 12 | 34 |
| 3 | Ameliano | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:15 | 7 | 29 |
| 4 | Nacional Asuncion | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 25:19 | 6 | 29 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 23:18 | 5 | 26 |
| 6 | Guarani | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 25:20 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Libertad Asuncion | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25:22 | 3 | 24 |
| 8 | Recoleta | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 27:24 | 3 | 22 |
| 9 | Rubio Nu | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 14:21 | -7 | 21 |
| 10 | Sp. Luqueno | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 21:28 | -7 | 18 |
| 11 | 2 de Mayo | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14:33 | -19 | 15 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 18 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12:36 | -24 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
