Result
3:3
13/09/2025 at 21:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 9
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Honduras | Deportes TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 15', Garcia F. 🟨,
- 20', 0 - 1, Gutierrez C. ⚽,
- 25', 0 - 2, Martinez J. ⚽,
- 26', Gomez R. 🟨,
- 31', 1 - 2, Gomez R. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 46', Serrano J. ↓, Macias J. ↑,
- 46', Argueta C. ↓, Melendez C. ↑,
- 53', 1 - 3, Garcia F. ⚽,
- 54', Nunez J. ↓, Vazquez M. ↑,
- 65', Baquedano M. 🟨,
- 69', Ponce J. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
- 70', Baquedano M. ↓, Pena K. ↑,
- 76', Portillo J. ↓, Zapata R. ↑,
- 77', Garcia R. ↓, Padilla J. ↑,
- 82', 2 - 3, Macias J. ⚽,
- 85', Cabrera M. ↓, Castillo Y. ↑,
- 89', Moreira R. ↓, Ardon C. ↑,
- 90+6', 3 - 3, Melendez D. ⚽,
- 90+6', Mejia G. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Motagua
66.1% | Draw
20.4% | Lobos UPNFM
13.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Motagua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Motagua's performance.Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lobos UPNFM might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (-11.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Motagua that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (+7.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lobos UPNFM could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Motagua - Lobos UPNFM Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.39 ↓
(1.71) |
4.5 ↑
(3.65) |
6.87 ↑
(4.17) |
8.6%
(9.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 4.
- Motagua is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Lobos UPNFM has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Motagua is the undeniable favorite.
- We predict that Motagua will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Motagua won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 47:21. (average 2.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Motagua won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 28:10. (average 2.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Motagua won against Lobos UPNFM?
Motagua has won 7 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lobos UPNFM won against Motagua?
Lobos UPNFM has won 2 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Motagua - Lobos UPNFM were as follows:
07.04.2025
Lobos UPNFM
-
Motagua
2:1
06.02.2025
Motagua
-
Lobos UPNFM
5:0
28.09.2024
Lobos UPNFM
-
Motagua
0:2
26.07.2024
Motagua
-
Lobos UPNFM
4:2
14.04.2024
Motagua
-
Lobos UPNFM
4:0
Latest results of Motagua
Latest results of Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:6 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | Olimpia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19:9 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Olancho | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15:10 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Juticalpa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12:16 | -4 | 14 |
| 5 | Platense | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:9 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | UPNFM | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:13 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Real Espana | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:12 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Motagua | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15:15 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Genesis | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:13 | -4 | 7 |
| 10 | Choloma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8:23 | -15 | 4 |
| 11 | Victoria | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5:18 | -13 | 3 |
Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ Triangulares: )
