Result
1:2
13/01/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- EFL Trophy - Play Offs - 1/8-finals
- Referee: Wright P. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.82 | 1.13 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 69% | 31% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (455/540) | 69% (170/247) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.82 | 1.13 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.35 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 11 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (455/540) | 69% (170/247) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (20/49) | 38% (23/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (97/137) | 49% (40/82) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (7/40) | 14% (2/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.94 | 0.21 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 21 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 62% (8/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 49 | 29 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.35 | 0.89 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.65 | -0.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 7', 1 - 0, Yates J. (Penalty Awarded),
- 22', Mabete F. 🟨,
- 37', 1 - 1, Wright W. ⚽, Olakigbe M. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Palmer O. ↓, Drinan A. ↑,
- 46', Wilson-Brown T. ↓, Kirkman B. ↑,
- 46', Snowdon J. ↓, McGregor J. ↑,
- 53', 1 - 2, Mabete F. ⚽,
- 60', McGregor J. 🟨,
- 71', Fanne L. ↓, Nakamba M. ↑,
- 71', Lawrence E. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
- 77', Clarke O. ↓, Nichols T. ↑,
- 78', Walters R. 🟨,
- 80', Olakigbe M. ↓, Oldaker D. ↑,
- 87', Saville G. ↓, Gawel D. ↑,
- 90+8', Archer E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Luton Town
56.8% | Draw
24.1% | Swindon Town
19.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-0.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
Luton Town - Swindon Town Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.63 ↑
(1.53) |
3.84 ↑
(3.6) |
4.82 ↓
(5) |
8.2%
(13.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Luton Town - Swindon Town?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 5 - 100%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- Recent performances by Luton have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Swindon is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Swindon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Luton is a strong favorite.
- In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Luton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 2.3:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Luton Town won against Swindon Town?
Luton Town has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Luton Town?
Swindon Town has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Luton Town - Swindon Town were as follows:
Latest results of Luton Town
Latest results of Swindon Town
Draw
Play Offs1/16-finals| 1 | Lincoln | Huddersfield | 0 : 2 |
| 2 | Salford | Rotherham | 2 : 7 |
| 3 | Doncaster | Chesterfield | 5 : 1 |
| 4 | Tranmere | Fleetwood | 0 : 3 |
| 5 | Bolton | Bradford City | 3 : 0 |
| 6 | Port Vale | Barnsley | 5 : 0 |
| 7 | Crewe | Stockport County | 1 : 2 |
| 8 | Harrogate | Blackpool | 4 : 2 |
| 9 | Luton | Exeter | 4 : 0 |
| 10 | Swindon | Peterborough | 1 : 0 |
| 11 | Bristol Rovers | Cambridge Utd | 3 : 2 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | Plymouth | 0 : 1 |
| 13 | Cardiff | AFC Wimbledon | 1 : 5 |
| 14 | Colchester | West Ham U21 | 0 : 1 |
| 15 | Northampton | Wycombe | 2 : 0 |
| 16 | Stevenage | Walsall | 1 : 2 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Huddersfield | Rotherham | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Doncaster | Fleetwood | 3 : 1 |
| 3 | Bolton | Port Vale | 0 : 1 |
| 4 | Stockport County | Harrogate | 2 : 1 |
| 5 | Luton | Swindon | 1 : 2 |
| 6 | Bristol Rovers | Plymouth | 3 : 4 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | West Ham U21 | 4 : 2 |
| 8 | Northampton | Walsall | 4 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Huddersfield | Doncaster | 1 : 2 |
| 2 | Port Vale | Stockport County | 0 : 4 |
| 3 | Luton | Plymouth | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | AFC Wimbledon | Northampton | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Doncaster | Stockport County | |
| 2 | Luton | Northampton | |
Final
